SITUATION OVERVIEW

Iran and the United States have no formal diplomatic relations and the relationship between the two nations is tense. The United States has several concerns about Iran's behavior: its pursuit of advanced nuclear capabilities and its support for terrorism. Additionally, the instability in Iraq has significantly expanded Iran's influence throughout the region.

At this time, Iran is not able to produce nuclear weapons. It is pursuing uranium and plutonium production programs that could eventually give it that ability. U.S. Intelligence suggests no firm date when Iran could become nuclear capable, but estimates range from three to ten years. In the meantime, the United States and the U.N. Security Council are considering Iran's past violations of obligations under international nuclear agreements, including Iran's illegal effort to conceal a major nuclear program for eighteen years.

Concurrently, Iranian-supported Hezbollah continues to pose a military threat to Israel. Iranian leaders have threatened to respond to any nuclear-related sanctions in asymmetrical ways, including use of terrorist action through Hezbollah against the United States and its allies.

THE BUSH RECORD

The United States lacks a coherent long-term policy towards Iran. The U.S. has been unable to either take a hard line and apply pressure or to seriously pursue engagement. Because President Bush has squandered several opportunities to seriously engage Iranian leaders to determine if any set of incentives might affect Iranian behavior, it is harder to gain support for more coercive international policies toward Tehran. Regime change-oriented rhetoric has only raised the level of paranoia in Iran and led its leaders to more tightly cling to any lever, including nuclear technology and terrorism, that might potentially deter U.S. action against Tehran. In the interim, Iran's leaders are able to use the nuclear program to their advantage and rally public support around an otherwise unpopular regime. Finally, the Bush administration's invasion of Iraq has given Iran more bargaining power and reduced the credibility of an American military threat, making it more difficult to negotiate with Tehran.

POLICY PRESCRIPTIONS

The United States needs to adopt a credible, long-term strategy toward Iran that protects American security interests and moves Iran's leaders and people to adopt more responsible regional and international policies. The U.S. and our allies should encourage more moderate and constructive policies from Iran's leaders and support moderates who are willing to abandon destabilizing policies. The United States must make clear that it is prepared to protect and defend its allies and interests in the Middle East against any Iranian provocation. It must also use all available tools, especially diplomatic and economic, to demonstrate to Iran that it cannot and should not try to secure its future through terrorism and nuclear weapons.

TALKING POINTS

Critiques

• Due to Bush administration choices and actions, Iran is more of a threat today than it was six years ago. The threat of Iran's nuclear program and its support for Hezbollah have both grown on this administration's watch.
• The incompetent execution of the war in Iraq has strengthened Iran. With the U.S. military bogged down in Iraq, we have less ability to stop Iran as it increases its influence in Iraq, becomes bolder in its nuclear aspirations, and continues to support Hezbollah.
• This administration has squandered chances to engage moderates in Iran and chosen rhetoric of regime change that only fuels nationalistic fervor in Iran and serves to increase domestic support for the regime.

Recommendations

• We can no longer outsource our national security interests to others. We must participate directly in the negotiations with Iran on the nuclear issue to have the best chance for success, but we must do so from a position of strength by rebuilding our military and our alliances.
• We must also work with others to prevent Iran from supporting terrorism, expanding its influence, and creating chaos that will endanger the U.S. and its allies in the region and throughout the world.
• We must work with those in Iranian society who support societal changes that will reduce Iran's support for extremism and violence, but we must do so without harming their ability to participate in the Iranian political process.