The Central Threat - Al Qaeda in Pakistan

By Rand Beers and Ilan Goldenberg

“The key theater in this global war is Iraq.”  - President Bush 7/24/07

“Al Qaeda is and will remain the most serious terrorist threat to the Homeland, as its central leadership continues to plan high-impact plots, while pushing others in extremist Sunni communities to mimic its efforts and to supplement its capabilities.”  -- National Intelligence Estimate 7/07

 
In his speech this week, the President contradicted his own intelligence agencies by arguing that the battle against Al Qaeda in Iraq is the central front in the war on terror.  The National Intelligence Estimate, released last week, concluded that the greatest threat to the American homeland emanates from Al Qaeda’s “central leadership,” which is based in the tribal areas of Northwest Pakistan.  History has shown that the most devastating attacks against American targets are planned by Al Qaeda’s central leadership – not franchises, such as Al Qaeda in Iraq.  The reality is that the war in Iraq has empowered Al Qaeda and undermined American interests.  The war has acted as a new tool for recruitment, fundraising, training and indoctrination of terrorists.  It has contributed to our devastating global loss of prestige and political power.  Our engagement has also put the U.S. at a strategic disadvantage against Al Qaeda, tying down American military forces and making it more difficult for the Pakistani government to work with the U.S. to eliminate Al Qaeda strongholds in the tribal areas.  The central threat to the American homeland is in Pakistan and that is where the central effort needs to be.

The National Intelligence Estimate explicitly states that the Al Qaeda leadership in Pakistan is the number one threat to the United States.  “Al Qaeda is and will remain the most serious terrorist threat to the Homeland, as its central leadership continues to plan high-impact plots, while pushing others in extremist Sunni communities to mimic its efforts and to supplement its capabilities. We assess the group has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: a safehaven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), operational lieutenants, and its top leadership.”   [National Intelligence Estimate, 7/07]

A day after the President said Iraq was the front line in the war on terror, Edward Gistaro, the chief US intelligence analyst for international terrorism, told Congress that Al Qaeda’s presence in Pakistan poses the greatest threat to American security.  Gistaro stated that, “The primary concern is in Al Qaeda in South Asia organizing its own plots against the United States.”  The top leaders of the terrorist network, Gistaro added, are “able to exploit the comfort zone in the tribal areas” of Pakistan and Afghanistan and are “bringing people in to train for Western operations.”  [Boston Globe, 7/26/07]

Admiral Mike McConnell, Director of National Intelligence, indicated that Al Qaeda is in Pakistan, and is planning to attack the United States.  “And the way I would describe it is we have strategic warning. We know what al Qaeda, in their safe haven in Pakistan, intends to do.  We’re watching them train and recruit, and their effort is to put someone inside the United States.  There have been some clues in some cases where there would be a tie.  But we do not have tactical warning currently.  There are sleeper cells tied directly to al Qaeda inside the United States.  So we have the strategic warning, not the specific tactical warning, but we know their intent.”  [Meet the Press, 7/22/07]

John Kringen, who heads the CIA's analysis directorate, agrees that Al Qaeda has been getting stronger.  “They seem to be fairly well settled into the safe haven and the ungoverned spaces of Pakistan,” Kringen testified in front of the House Armed Services Committee. "We see more training. We see more money. We see more communications. We see that activity rising." [NPR, 7/15/07]

Al Qaeda’s central leadership has a track record of spectacular attacks against the American homeland.  The 9/11 attacks were planned by Al Qaeda’s top leadership in Afghanistan, as were the U.S. embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania in August 1998.  Al Qaeda central was also involved in the thwarted, but most devastating, known plot in recent memory, which involved liquid explosives set to be simultaneously detonated on numerous transatlantic flights.  [Memorial Institution for the Prevention of Terrorism]

The National Intelligence Estimate found that Al Qaeda, not Al Qaeda in Iraq, is most likely to pursue Weapons of Mass Destruction.  “We assess that Al Qaeda will continue to try to acquire and employ chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear material in attacks and would not hesitate to use them if it develops what it deems is sufficient capability.”  [National Intelligence Estimate, 7/07] 

Last year, the nation’s 16 intelligence agencies concurred that Iraq is fueling global terrorism.  “We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.  The Iraq conflict has become the ‘cause celebre’ for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of U.S. involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement.”  [National Intelligence Estimate, 4/06]

The National Intelligence Estimate found that Al Qaeda could leverage the resources of AQI.  However, it implies that central planning would likely still occur in Al Qaeda central, which is in Pakistan.  “We assess that al Qaeda will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the U.S. Homeland.  In addition, we assess that its association with AQI helps al Qaeda to energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources, and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives, including for Homeland attacks.”  [National Intelligence Estimate, 7/07]

Al Qaeda had no significant foothold in Iraq before the invasion.  The U.S. presence in Iraq has provided al Qaeda new base camps, new recruits and new prestige.  Pentagon resources have been diverted from Afghanistan; where the military had a real chance to hunt down al Qaeda’s leadership.  It alienated essential allies in the war against terrorism and drained the strength and readiness of American troops.  [NY Times, 7/8/07]