This report is the fourth in a weekly series to offer an assessment of the Supplemental benchmarks and measure whether any real progress is being made in Iraq.

Amending the Constitution

“Iraqis now have a fully constitutional government, marking the end of a democratic transitional process in Iraq that has been both difficult and inspiring. This broadly representative unity government offers a new opportunity for progress in Iraq.”
 ― President Bush, 5/20/2006

THE BENCHMARKS [H.R. 2206]

• Forming a Constitutional Review Committee and then completing the constitutional review.

On this day three years ago, the United States handed over power to a sovereign Iraqi government.  Today, there is still no agreement on what this government’s constitution should look like.  While some progress has been made, Sunnis, Shi’a, and Kurds still cannot agree on key elements of their constitution.  The committee established to look into these matters has missed numerous deadlines and is in gridlock.  An inability to come to an agreement could lead to the eventual collapse of the government and an increase in violence in areas that have, to date, remained relatively peaceful—most notably the oil rich city of Kirkuk.

PROGRESS ON CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM

The initial version of the constitution drafted in 2005 was viewed as unfair by the Sunnis, who only accepted it after a clause was added to allow them to amend it later.  The key issues regarding the constitution are: federalism, or the right of provinces to attain “regional” status with more power than one province alone; the future of a referendum on the status of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, whether Iraq should be considered an Arab country, and the reduction of the power of the Prime Minister while granting more power to the President.  The way the Constitution is currently structured, Sunnis are put at a significant disadvantage on all of these fronts.  [NY Times, 6/13/2007.  Iraq Slogger, 5/17/07]

The Constitutional Review Committee has been slow to show progress. The Committee was originally scheduled to complete its work by May 15.  Instead, it delivered a draft that did not address many of the key issues, and tried to pass the responsibility off to the political leadership.  The deadline has been extended multiple times because of a failure to come to an agreement.  A new draft is due at the end of July.  One of the leaders of the Committee, Sheik Humam Hamoudi, believes that, it might take even longer stating that “We have not committed to doing it by September...  Maybe the American Congress has made such a commitment, but we have not.” [Washington Post, 6/27/07.  NY Times, 6/13/2007.]

Even if the Constitutional Committee came to an agreement on step one, actually getting the amendments passed would be extraordinarily complicated. The parliament must vote on the amendments after they make it out of committee. If they pass parliament, the amendments must then win a majority from the public in a nationwide referendum.  As an additional hurdle, at least three of Iraq’s eighteen provinces would have to register two-thirds approval. [Council on Foreign Relations, 05/15/07]

THE STATE OF IRAQ’S GOVERNMENT

In the past, Shi’a politicians have made clear that they would be unwilling to compromise on the Constitution.  One of the most powerful Shi’a politicians in Iraq, Abdul Aziz Hakim, said soon after the constitution had been approved that, “he would not allow a new government to ‘change the essence’ of the country's constitution, despite a promise made to Sunni Arabs that it would be opened to major revision.” [Washington Post, 1/11/2006]

President Bush’s “surge” has failed to make the Maliki government more stable and accountable.  The President asserted that the troop increase would diminish sectarian violence and sectarian control, which would give the Maliki government a calm in which to build a unified Iraqi administration.  Despite a significant increase in American casualties, the various blocs have made little headway in breaking the political logjam.  [Reuters, 6/12/2007. Washington Post, 6/17/2007]

The Maliki government is losing the support of many of its own members, who have become frustrated with the lack of progress.  Iraqi Vice President Abel Abdul Mahdi, a Shiite politician, offered his resignation this month.  “Other senior Iraqi officials have considered resigning in recent weeks over the failures of their government to make progress after more than a year in power, according to Iraqi and U.S. officials…A growing number of Iraqi leaders, including several fellow Shiites, are expressing discontent with Maliki's ability to stanch the bloodshed, contain civil war, make progress on economic fronts, and share power with the minority Sunnis.” Meanwhile, Sunni leaders have also threatened to leave the government if no progress is made.  [Washington Post, 6/20/2007]