A Return to the Negotiating Table
In recent weeks, the regime in Tehran has signaled that it wants to return to talks over its controversial nuclear program. This development comes as Israelis say Iran has “drawn back” from building a weapon, and allies agree that the strategy of unified international pressure on Iran has bought time for negotiations to succeed. The next step, moving to talks, will require its own kind of strength from Washington – confidence and pragmatism in putting forward concrete proposals, and engaging in give and take. Such a negotiated political solution remains the best way to achieve a sustainable outcome.
Iran signaling it wants to return to the negotiating table, possible bilateral U.S.-Iran talks. Last month the New York Times reported, “The United States and Iran have agreed in principle for the first time to one-on-one negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, according to Obama administration officials, setting the stage for what could be a last-ditch diplomatic effort to avert a military strike on Iran.” This week, the LA Times reports, “Now both sides are signaling a willingness to talk one-on-one, or as part of the six-nation negotiating group that held three meetings with Iran this year. Negotiations could resume as early as this month.”
Barbara Slavin of al Monitor further reports, “the US administration is looking for a solid bilateral channel that will augment multilateral talks and enable the two sides to bargain without five other parties in the room… Al-Monitor has also learned that the US is mulling the expansion of a ‘more for more’ offer: more verifiable nuclear curbs from Iran in exchange for greater US concessions, including some sanctions relief. The ‘more for more’ offer, according to one source apprised of administration deliberations before the US elections, would update the ‘stop, ship, and shut’ offer regarding 20% uranium enrichment to get more verifiable limits on the rest of Iran’s nuclear program.” [NY Times, 10/20/12. LA Times, 11/13/12. AP, 11/10/12. al Monitor, 11/12/12]
Administration strategy is working, allies cite time gained. “Iran has drawn back from its ambitions to build a nuclear weapon, Israel’s defence minister was quoted as saying… Defence Minister Ehud Barak told Britain’s Daily Telegraph newspaper that an immediate crisis was avoided when Iran chose to use more than a third of its medium-enriched uranium for civilian purposes earlier this year. In addition, Israeli President Shimon Peres recently said to Joint Chiefs Chairman General Martin Dempsey: “The sanctions are beginning to show some results. I think all of us agree that we should start with the non-military options while keeping all options on the table. If we can conclude it in a diplomatic way, then it’s much better.” [Reuters, 10/30/12. Shimon Peres, 10/30/12]
Next step is negotiations with give-and-take, pragmatic proposal, building from strong U.S. hand to get a sustainable deal. Roger Cohen of the New York Times lays out the contours: “Diplomacy involves accepting that in order to get what you want you have to give something. The key question is: ‘What do I want to get out of my rival and what do I have to give to get it?’ Pressure alone, in the form of sanctions, is not going to stop Iran’s nuclear program… What do we want from Iran? Open up all its nuclear facilities, get rid of all its 20 percent enriched uranium, end all threats to Israel, stop rampant human rights abuses, changed policies on Hamas and Hezbollah, a constructive approach to Syria. What can we offer? Lift some sanctions, stop a range of covert actions, take regime change off the table, put the right to limited enrichment (up to 5 percent) on the table, and address the regional role of Iran.” [Roger Cohen, 11/12/12]
What We’re Reading
Iran unveiled new missile and artillery systems, Iranian media reported, on the second day of large-scale military exercises which officials said were aimed at sending a warning to those threatening the Islamic Republic.
Pakistan’s Haqqani network announced it is prepared to enter talks with the United States if sanctioned by the head of the Taliban.
A British Royal Navy submariner admitted in court that he met two men he thought were Russian agents to pass on military secrets, including the sailing dates of British nuclear submarines.
South Korea’s government should resume publishing polls on nuclear safety after a loss of public confidence in the sector in the wake of Japan’s Fukushima disaster.
Tokyo Electric Power Co. sees no imminent resumption of operations at the world’s biggest nuclear plant, shut down after last year’s Fukushima disaster.
South African police arrested 37 workers for public violence after protesters barricaded a road leading to a Kroondal chrome mine.
Somalia’s parliament approved a smaller, 10-member Cabinet in a vote that serves as an important victory for the country’s new prime minister.
Colombian authorities say two bombs exploded by suspected rebels at a police station in a southwestern town have injured 25 people and damaged 60 homes.
Brazil’s Supreme Court sentenced the top aide of ex-President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to nearly 11 years in prison on corruption charges.
Commentary of the Day
Craig Whitlock discusses the first of many post-election Asia trips for Cabinet officials.
NSN’s Bill French explores the possibility and implications of a U.S.-Iran cyber war.
David Barno, Nora Bensahel, Joel Smith and Jacob Stokes discuss the specific impacts sequester could have on the Pentagon.
