Special Note:  NSN Rapid Response for tonight’s debate will be primarily available at www.democracyarsenal.org on a real time basis.

9/26/08

As the country’s focus has shifted to the economy, 140,000 American troops remain in Iraq and events there are not suspended.  While violence has decreased dramatically in the past year and a half, Iraqi politicians have not taken advantage of the situation to come to the political compromises necessary to bring about stability.  This week’s agreement on provincial elections was a positive step.  Other ticking time bombs such as integrating the Sons of Iraq into the Iraqi Security Forces and determining the status of Kirkuk must be addressed.  Meanwhile it’s important to remember that the war in Iraq has come at the cost of more than 4,000 American lives, nearly $1 trillion, a near global collapse of U.S. prestige, and the complete neglect of other serious national security concerns such as Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran.

Progressives have long recognized that the Iraq war distracts us from pressing national security challenges, and that limitless commitments do nothing to bring success closer.  That is why they have called for a timetable for the redeployment of American forces combined with measures to put greater political pressure on the Iraqis to solve their own problems.  Recently, the Bush administration has seen the wisdom of this approach, moving toward an agreement with the Iraqi government on a phased withdrawal.  

But John McCain, an outspoken supporter of the President’s Bush war policies, has not voiced a strategy for success in Iraq.  He remains opposed to plans to bring our fighting men and women home, and does not recognize the need for Iraqis to stand on their own – instead preferring to spend $10 billion a month in Iraq and giving the Iraqis a blank check.  

The provincial elections law passed this week after months of deadlock.  “Iraqi lawmakers overcame months of infighting to pass legislation Wednesday setting the stage for provincial elections by early next year, an achievement sought by the United States to correct lopsided power structures blamed for sectarian violence…The bill's passage came with some major hurdles attached, at least one of which was described as a ‘very dark’ cloud by the United Nations' special representative, Staffan de Mistura.  That issue involves the northern city of Kirkuk, which Kurdish leaders want as part of the semiautonomous Kurdistan region. The city's Sunni Arab and Turkmen populations oppose the idea. All the groups had feared that holding provincial elections now in Tamim, whose capital is Kirkuk, would deny them the power they seek in the oil-rich region, so the decision was made to postpone voting there.” [LA Times, 9/25/08]

The Bush administration led the nation into a reckless unnecessary war.  In 2002, the Bush administration made the strategic miscalculation to turn away from Al Qaeda, and lead the country into war in Iraq. Despite claims that the U.S. would be “greeted as liberators” and that the war would be “relatively quick,” the costs “in terms of blood and treasure have been tremendous.”  “More than 4,000 American troops have been killed in Iraq and another 30,000 have been wounded.  Already more than $600 billion has been allocated in direct costs and the costs to the U.S. economy already exceed $1 trillion.”  Today, as the terrorist threat in Pakistan grows worse,  140,000 troops remain mired in a country whose politicians have been unable to translate security improvements into progress on several key political issues, including the oil law, the status of the city Kirkuk, and the status of the sons of Iraq. [NSN, 9/02/08. Brookings Institution, 8/21/08. Congressional Joint Economic Committee, 2/28/2008. CBS News, 11/15/02. Time, 8/16/08. NY Times, 8/19/08. McClatchy, 8/20/08]

Progressives offer an alternative vision for Iraq.  The progressive strategy for Iraq begins with a phased-withdrawal of U.S. troops, carried out in consultation with commanders on the ground, with a goal of more comprehensively addressing our national security priorities. This strategy “is the only approach that obliges the stakeholders to take responsibility for putting Iraq on the road to long-term stability.”  It stems from a recognition, put forward by Senator Barack Obama that “[t]his war distracts us from every threat that we face and so many opportunities we could seize. This war diminishes our security, our standing in the world, our military, our economy, and the resources that we need to confront the challenges of the 21st century.”  By moving toward a timetable for withdrawal, the Bush Administration and the Maliki Government have taken the same position that progressives and Barack Obama have held for years.” [Barack Obama, 7/15/08. NSN, Iraq Policy Paper. NSN, 9/9/08]

John McCain has been wrong on Iraq since day one and offers the same Bush policies.  He echoed Rumsfeld and Cheney, saying that “we can win an overwhelming victory [in Iraq] in a very short period of time," and that “the success will be fairly easy.” Between 2004 and 2006 McCain consistently said we should “stay the course” in Iraq. In 2005 on ABC McCain said “some serious mistakes were made, but…I think we've got to stay the course here.” In 2006 McCain said on CBS Bush had "laid out recently a pretty cogent argument why we must, quote - I hate to use the phrase - stay the course’[in Iraq.]”  He has tried to cover up this cheerleading by pointing to his support for the surge.  While the surge has reduced violence it has done so at a great cost in American blood and treasure and it is not even clear that it will bring about long term stability.  Critical divisions such as the upcoming provincial elections, questions about the status of Kirkuk, and whether or not the Sons of Iraq will be integrated into the Iraqi security forces still remain. If these critical concerns are not addressed violence is likely to explode once again. [CNN Late Edition, 9/29/02. CNN, Larry King Live, 9/24/02. NPR, 4/28/04. ABC News, 10/24/04. Fox, 8/14/05; ABC News, 9/25/05; CBS News, 6/29/05; The Hill, 12/8/05. MSNBC, 6/8/06. CBS News, 9/24/06. Senator John McCain, 1/6/08]

Quick Hits

U.S. and Pakistani forces fired at each other, though uncertainties remain over the exact sequence of events.

President George W. Bush reportedly told Israel in May that the United States would not support an attack on Iran.

The bailout deal fell apart and stocks fell in Asia and Europe, as the government seized Washington Mutual in the largest bank failure ever and sold pieces of it to JP Morgan Chase. Critics blame the injection of presidential politics for the failure of the bailout negotiations, including House Republican recalcitrance. Tonight’s debate remains uncertain.

NSN’s Ilan Goldenberg writes a preview of tonight’s debate.

Russia has offered Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez a loan of $1 billion to fund arms purchases.  Chavez is on his second trip to Russia in two months.

Middle East peace has taken center stage at the United Nations as the Security Council Quartet (the United Nations, the United States, the European Union, and Russia) meets to discuss Israeli settlements.

The New York Times Magazine this weekend will feature a story on how the Supreme Court affects foreign policy, and the potential consequences for the election.

A sweeping Bush administration plan for forcing verification of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program derailed the nonproliferation plans and led to the North Koreans restarting the Yongbyon plant.

Somalia continues to descend into violence as pirates seized a Ukrainian ship carrying 30 T-72 tanks.

Two terrorism suspects were arrested on a KLM flight out of Germany, both with ties to Somalia.

Radical Israeli settlers are militantly resisting pullback; yesterday they bombed the Jerusalem home of a prominent anti-settlement academic.