9/9/08

The President’s announcement today that the U.S. will begin a modest redeployment of American forces from Iraq to Afghanistan – a recommendation progressives have been advocating for years – is a welcome shift. But the redeployment is so modest and will take so long to arrive that, effectively, the President remains fixated on Iraq - regardless of the larger implications for U.S. national security. The Bush administration’s myopic focus on Iraq has overstretched our military, cost U.S. tax payers $10 billion per month while Iraqi leaders have sat on a massive oil surplus, and failed to facilitate the necessary political reconciliation among Iraq’s leaders required for long term stability. Meanwhile our mission in Afghanistan has never been accomplished – seven years after the invasion, the terrorists that attacked us on 9-11 continue to plot against the United States in the mountainous Afghanistan-Pakistan border region and the Taliban insurgency is growing in strength. The need for additional troops and resources in Afghanistan could not be more urgent. The foreign policy of the last eight years has been a disaster for United States. Instead of more of the same, the United States needs to finally change course and adopt a comprehensive approach that focuses on addressing the greatest danger to the United States.

The President announced a very modest withdrawal from Iraq, but passes the buck on big decisions about future U.S. presence.  “President Bush will announce today that the number of U.S. combat brigades in Iraq will remain steady until after he leaves office, deferring any further decisions about troop withdrawals to his successor.”  When the next President takes office, there will be more troops in Iraq than there were six months after the invasion and one month before the surge strategy was introduced in 2007.  [Washington Post, 9/9/08. Iraq Index, 9/04/08]
 
Finally increased attention is being paid to Afghanistan, but Bush’s speech shows no recognition of the deteriorating situation and fundamental change in strategy.  Commentators say that a “troop reshuffle” is not enough to achieve success in Afghanistan.  “The insurgency will only be defeated over the long-term if the legitimacy and writ of the Afghan state increase and if the population's support for the insurgents diminishes. This will require bolstering Afghan's institutions, rooting out corruption, and improving the state's ability to provide services. It will also mean providing economic opportunities for Afghans so that they do not turn to opium or the insurgency for employment… Again, U.S. involvement in Iraq has meant less attention and resources for meeting these important objectives in Afghanistan.”  In today’s speech, Bush lauded the U.S.’ recent assistance pledge of $10 billion for Afghan development, yet this is “less than what is spent in a month of military operations in Iraq.”  [BBC, 9/9/08. CAP, 7/04/08. President Bush, 9/9/08]

Bush rediscovers Afghanistan in speech, but only further demonstrates Administration’s myopic focus on Iraq.  In today’s speech, the President confirmed his Administration’s damaging fixation on Iraq, and their complete inattention to other pressing national security priorities.  Bush suggested that Afghanistan’s woes were a recent phenomenon, one tied to his Administration’s success in Iraq:  “As al Qaida faces increased pressure in Iraq, the terrorists are stepping up their efforts on the front where this struggle first began - the nation of Afghanistan.” Yet, Afghanistan has been in peril for some time, confirmed by the State Department’s terrorism report for 2006, which warned that “terrorist attacks” were up “53 percent in Afghanistan,” from the year before.  Afghanistan’s troubles are in part a result of President Bush’s focus on Iraq, and his choice to make “contingency operations and the needs of the Army and the Marine Corps” secondary to the effort there.  [President Bush, 9/9/08.  State Department, 4/30/07.  Washington Post, 9/9/08]

Quick Hits

Benazir Bhutto’s widower, Asif Ali Zardari, was sworn in as President of Pakistan today; his history of alleged corruption, Pakistan’s mounting inflation and economic problems, and the Taliban presence in its Tribal Areas will make for a challenging presidency.

The trial in London for those accused of plotting to bomb trans-Atlantic airplanes with liquid explosives has ended in a mixed verdict: three of the eight defendants were convicted of conspiracy to commit murder but none were convicted of actually plotting to bomb the planes.

As the United States re-investigates the August 22 bombing that Afghan and U.N. officials state killed 90 civilians, a NATO bomb missed its target by more than 15 miles today, killing two Afghan civilians and wounding four.  Civilian deaths from coalition airstrikes in Afghanistan tripled in 2007 over 2006; the dramatic increase in the death toll has decreased support for the United States and the Afghan government.

A bipartisan panel’s upcoming report will state that the “United States remains ‘dangerously vulnerable’ to chemical, biological and nuclear attacks seven years after 9/11.”

Thailand’s Prime Minister has been ordered to resign for violating the Constitution by receiving payment for hosting two cooking shows; the Prime Minister’s party will nominate him to succeed himself.

U.S. and Iraqi officials are attempting to reassure Sunni Awakening members in the face of the upcoming U.S. handover of their direction and payroll to the Shia government, amidst rumors of government persecution of Awakening members and increasing sectarian tensions.

Although Russia has agreed to remove its troops from Georgia proper, it will maintain a troop presence in the disputed Georgian separatist provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia “for the foreseeable future.”  The International Court of Justice today began to hear the case of the Russia-Georgia dispute over Georgian breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

EU leaders met with Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and offered closer ties but no membership pledge.

An Afghan drug kingpin, set to go on trial today in Manhattan for heroin importing, stated that he aided the United States with information about Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar and was promised the he would avoid persecution in return, raising questions about the circumstances of the drug lord’s capture and what the United States may have done with his allegedly valuable information.

Russia and Venezuela have confirmed that they will be holding joint-naval exercises off the Venezuelan coast by the end of the year.

Oil prices have fallen as the OPEC summit approaches, where current production levels are expected to be maintained.  British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has invited Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Libyan leader Muammer Gaddafi to London for an oil summit.

Bob Woodward continues his series on how the Bush administration managed the escalating crisis in Iraq with a story on the influence of retired Army General Jack Keane.

The United States plans to give the Iraqi government control of a camp for the Iranian Mujahedin Khalq, or MEK, a group on the U.S. terrorism watch list that has also provided information to the United States on Iran’s nuclear program. Iranian-Americans have voiced fears for the MEK who may be deported back to Iran where they could face imprisonment and death.

A U.S. intelligence official stated that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il may have had a stroke; the celebration of North Korea’s 60th anniversary was a subdued affair instead of the massive military parade expected and Kim Jong-il did not attend.