With all the focus on energy prices this week, it is important to remember that the candidates’ foreign policies will have an important impact on gas prices. Experts believe that up to 30 percent of the current price of oil is due to instability in the world’s largest oil producers, and any potential for confrontation only exacerbates the situation. John McCain’s bellicose approach towards both Iran and Russia, two of the world’s largest producers, will keep energy prices high.

While McCain and Obama have both presented plans for reducing energy prices it is important to remember that foreign policy has a major impact on world oil prices as well. Obama and McCain have both presented proposals for lowering energy prices, but those proposals cannot be viewed in a vacuum. We must also take into account the candidates’ foreign policies. According to the Chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Daniel Yergin, these national security concerns have built “an almost-permanent security premium’ into the price of oil.” In fact according to some estimates rising tensions in the world’s oil producing hotspots have resulted in as much as a 30 percent increase in the price of oil. [NY Times, 8/05/08; NY Times, 8/05/08; NY Times 5/11/08]

John McCain and George Bush’s foreign policy of unwavering confrontation with Iran has raised costly speculation about a future oil shock and led to an increase in oil prices. John McCain supports not talking to Iran and instead continuing the same strategies that have not worked for the last eight years, agreeing with George Bush’s assessment of characterizing direct talks with Iran as appeasement. As John Kilduff, an energy analyst, has observed: “Well, I think at this point, the problem we have… is statements from the President and the Vice President, almost on a daily basis lately, really raising the rhetoric, raising the temperature on the situation…and this is the mother of all supply fears, the mother of all supply threats. Not only the Iranian oil, but the Strait of Hormuz, where 25 percent of the world's oil flows, that's 100 percent Western-friendly, could easily be blocked by the Iranians…we in the oil markets have to call them as we see them and take what we get in terms of rhetoric and worry.” [NewsHour, 10/26/07, John McCain, 6/2/08]

McCain’s confrontational policies toward Russia, the world's largest exporter of natural gas and the second largest oil exporter, would only heighten the security premium. Russia’s energy supplies are critical for Europe and impact world oil prices. It has not hesitated in the past to use its position as a major energy supplier for leverage and has, at times, resorted to cutting off gas supplies to consumer nations. McCain believes Russia should be excluded from the G-8. In a Foreign Affairs article published late last year, McCain advocated kicking Russia out of the G-8: “Today, we see in Russia diminishing political freedoms, a leadership dominated by a clique of former intelligence officers, efforts to bully democratic neighbors, such as Georgia, and attempts to manipulate Europe's dependence on Russian oil and gas. We need a new Western approach to this revanchist Russia. We should start by ensuring that the G-8, the group of eight highly industrialized states, becomes again a club of leading market democracies: it should include Brazil and India but exclude Russia.” McCain repeated this view in his global vision speech at the Los Angeles World Affairs Council where he called for Russia to be kicked out of the G8. [Foreign Affairs, 11-12/07; EIA, 2008; John McCain, 3/26/08]

Quick Hits

The NY Times reports of sluggish progress with training the Iraqi army, while the Washington Post reports that the training of Afghan police is advancing at a slow pace with disappointing results.

Iraq is utilizing only a fraction of its $79 billion budget surplus on reconstruction efforts, leaving the bulk of the burden on American taxpayers.

Iran’s response to an incentive package offered to it in exchange for suspending its uranium enrichment was unclear. It appears likely that the U.S. and its allies will likely now seek further sanctions in the UN Security Council.

The former Olympic speed-skater and Darfur activist Joey Cheek was denied entry into China ahead of the games’ opening ceremony. He was set to advocate for new Chinese policies towards the embattled African region.

A Syrian general believed to be in charge of weapons shipments to Hezbollah was assassinated. The government of Syria has yet to issue an official statement regarding the killing.

The trial of Salim Hamdan enters its third day of deliberations after the possibility of a mistrial arose over the judge’s instructions to the jury.

President Bush will emphasize Chinese political intolerance and the development of democracy in Myanmar in a speech in Thailand. The speech marks the 20th anniversary of an uprising defying the military junta.

President Bush’s trip to South Korea was met with large protests.