4/30/10

When delegates arrive in New York on Monday to begin the month-long Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference, all eyes will turn to the United Nations.  With Iran's continued refusal to halt its production of enriched uranium and answer questions about its nuclear program, North Korea's rejection of the NPT and subsequent nuclear tests, and a host of other ailments, challenges to the nonproliferation regime abound.  But the Review Conference is just one of many opportunities to strengthen the international nonproliferation regime, not an end unto itself.

The United States is demonstrating leadership and, through its actions at home and abroad taking effective steps to shore up global defenses against nuclear terrorism and strengthen the commitments set forth by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.  The Review Conference will be an important opportunity to renew commitments to the treaty and bolster the penalties for noncompliance.  It will not and should not be seen as the only opportunity to deal with Iran.  It is thus a tempting opportunity for other nations to air grievances and disagreements.  Those responses are unlikely to knock off course progress that is occurring elsewhere and don't deserve an over-reaction.  The administration is pursuing a smart, comprehensive approach to Iran of which this conference is part, not the pinnacle.

The upcoming Review Conference is not a make or break moment.    Deepti Choubey of the Carnegie Endowment explains that, "Over the last few years and particularly with the failure of the 2005 Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference, there's been a tendency by some to call 2010 a make or break moment-this is a real mistake.

As Ellen Tauscher, Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security, noted yesterday at an event hosted by the Center for American Progress, "The Review Conference is not a silver bullet or an end in and of itself. It is one of several tools at our disposal to halt the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Other tools include multilateral and unilateral sanctions, extended deterrence, and other mechanisms like United Nations Resolution 1540.  A final document, which can only be reached by consensus of all 189 nations - and yes, that includes Iran - can be valuable. It can energize our efforts, but it cannot change the substance of the Treaty. In our view, whether there is a consensus Final Document should not be the measuring stick to judge the success of the Review Conference. As I said, a Final Document can easily be blocked by the extreme agendas of a few."

Choubey elucidates, "Next month's Review Conference is an opportunity for all states that are party to the treaty to stabilize and strengthen the nonproliferation regime.  Understanding the purpose of the review conference, however, is important. For instance, this is not an opportunity to solve the concerns over Iran or North Korea's compliance with its nonproliferation obligations. But, it is an opportunity for states that are party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty to create or strengthen new rules to deal with states that may be cheating from within the regime and then may choose to withdraw in the future." [Carnegie Endowment, 4/29/10.  Ellen Tauscher, 4/29/10]

The Administration is leading a range of efforts to strengthen the global nonproliferation regime.  After years in which Washington opted to work alone, the US is getting global control of nuclear materials back on track by:  signing a New START agreement that challenges other states to follow us in reducing nuclear weapons;  clarifying our nuclear posture to support our security and heighten the consequences for proliferator states; bring effective pressure to bear on Iran and North Korea the bring them into compliance; and taking initiatives to curb the threat of nuclear terrorism and lock down all vulnerable nuclear materials worldwide.  These initiatives are important regardless of the outcome of the Review Conference.

The Nuclear Posture Review:  The NPR sets U.S. nuclear policy for the coming years and makes strides in furthering our defenses against nuclear terrorism. The NPR clarifies the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. defense policy and states that the U.S. will not use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapons states that are upholding their Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) commitments.  This policy creates serious consequences for states that are not fulfilling their NPT obligations and sharpens the response to states that may consider withdrawing from the treaty.  As Secretary of Defense Robert Gates explained, "The review rightly places the prevention of nuclear terrorism and proliferation at the top of the U.S. nuclear policy agenda.  Given al Qaeda's continued quest for nuclear weapons, Iran's ongoing nuclear efforts and North Korea's proliferation, this focus is appropriate and indeed an essential change from previous reviews." [Sec. Gates, 4/6/10]

The New START accord:  The New START agreement demonstrates progress on our NPT commitments and reaffirms U.S. support for the grand bargain that underpins the treaty:  states without nuclear weapons will not acquire them, states with nuclear weapons will pursue disarmament, and all NPT parties in compliance with their NPT obligations have the right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy.  Appearing yesterday before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, former defense secretaries William Perry and James Schlesinger acknowledged the importance of ratifying the New START agreement so that the U.S. can continue to lead efforts to strengthen the global regime.  As Dr. Schlesinger observed, failure to ratify this treaty "would have a detrimental effect on our ability to influence others with regard to, particularly, the nonproliferation issue."  Dr. Perry further commented that "If we fail to ratify this treaty, the U.S. forfeits any right to leadership on nonproliferation policies." [William Perry and James Schlesinger at the SFRC Hearing, 4/29/10]

The United States has also worked to strengthen the International Atomic Energy Agency by ensuring that it has the proper resources.  The U.S. has chaired a special session of the United Nations Security Council where it drafted and garnered strong international support for UNSCR 1887 -a  revitalized commitment to work toward a world without nuclear weapons -and has hosted the April 2010 Nuclear Security Summit, which brought concrete commitments from a multitude of countries to either secure or eliminate their highly enriched uranium.

The Obama administration's approach has established a new foundation for multilateral action to deal with Iran. As one of the most glaring challenges to the nonproliferation regime, the Iranian case is being addressed through multiple channels.  While agreement among a majority of states on the need to strengthen the treaty and its penalties for noncompliance will be an important component of the conference, the Review Conference is neither the only nor the best venue to address Iran.

By first working to engage Iran and then moving to a diplomatic pressure track when Iran demonstrated to the international community that it was not willing to cooperate, the U.S. has garnered broad international support for its approach. As detailed by the Washington Independent, President Obama will soon be the one who "shepherds an economic sanctions package on the Iranian regime's key organs through the United Nations Security Council. After winning China's acquiescence; spending almost a year and a half rebuilding relations with Russia; and leveraging new and less patient leadership at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the administration has pieces in position to unite the international community against Iran's uranium enrichment." Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution explains the importance of the international support saying that, "sanctions are long-term instruments of policy and require considerable international cohesion to implement with any degree of effectiveness."

Iran is clearly feeling the pressure.  As the AP reported over the weekend, "Iran's push to avoid new U.N. sanctions appeared to make little headway Sunday with Austria, with the Security Council member saying the onus was on Tehran to defuse international concerns about its nuclear agenda if it wanted to avoid fresh penalties.  Austria and other non-permanent members of the 15-nation U.N. Security Council are the targets of a diplomatic offensive by Tehran designed to stave off a U.S-supported push for a fourth set of Security Council sanctions for its nuclear defiance."  This situation would not have been possible without strong international support, something which the U.S. has worked hard to gain.[Washington Independent, 4/19/10. Suzanne Maloney, 4/7/10. AP, 4/25/10]

What We're Reading

A massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico neared wildlife refuges and seafood grounds along the Louisiana coast, as efforts redoubled to avert what could become one of the worst U.S. ecological disasters.

The European Union's monetary affairs commissioner, Olli Rehn, said that he was "confident" that negotiations over an aid package for Greece would "be concluded in the next days."

Belgian lawmakers passed a nationwide ban prohibiting women from wearing full-face Islamic veils in public places, the first move of its kind in Western Europe.

Brazilian President Lula da Silva has been named the most influential leader in the world by Time Magazine, ahead of U.S. President Barack Obama who is ranked fourth.

An election recount in Baghdad will start on Monday and may take three weeks, Iraqi officials said on Thursday, further delaying the formation of a new government.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned Syria that its policy of sending weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon is pushing the region toward war.

Pakistani Prime Minister Yusaf Raza Gilani and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh meet in Bhutan today, promising open discussions on ‘all issues of mutual concern.'

Patients have been evacuated from a hospital in Bangkok, after anti-government red-shirt demonstrators forced their way onto the grounds.

Chad's government says its army has killed 105 insurgents and beaten back a new attack near the Sudan border, but the rebels have denied the claims.

Top Myanmar officials resigned from their military posts this week and created their own political party in a likely bid to contest upcoming elections later this year, raising new skepticism about the prospects for a valid vote.

Commentary of the Day

The Economist says that sooner rather than later, Barack Obama must present his own detailed plan for peace between Israelis and Palestinians.

David Brooks argues that, to remain the world's pre-eminent nation, the U.S. must develop energy sources that are plentiful, clean and don't enrich the worst people on earth.

Julia Ioffe describes the sex scandal that's rocking the Russian opposition.