5/28/09

The spread of nuclear weapons is a tremendous global challenge -- and a threat we can do something about, one where other nations actually desire US leadership.   Two recent high-level bipartisan statements -- a Council on Foreign Relations task force report chaired by William Perry and Brent Scowcroft and a Partnership for a Secure America statement signed by 30 senior figures -- call for American leadership to address the non-proliferation challenge through a combination of tough diplomacy, strong safety measures, and renewed efforts to build global rules that stop weapons’ spread. The challenges we face are real:  North Korea’s recent nuclear test and military posturing, Iran’s nuclear program, and the dangerous India-Pakistan arms race.  But as bipartisan security leaders recognize, those problems cannot be solved without recommitting nations all over the world to safeguarding and reducing nuclear weapons, and that demands US leadership.  President Obama recognized this on April 5 in Prague, when he laid out an ambitious agenda to combat nuclear proliferation:  bilateral talks with the world’s second nuclear superpower, Russia; secure all vulnerable nuclear material around the world within four years; and US leadership to strengthen and update the international agreements that make up the global nuclear non-proliferation regime.

Though these goals are well-accepted by top security thinkers, many conservatives are continuing Bush administration efforts to undermine the international treaties designed to curb proliferation, such as the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.  Yet their policy options – diplomatic isolation and the threat of force – have failed.  Many of their objections are outdated.  And the American public has embraced a path that meets the nuclear threat with tough negotiations, strong safeguards, and an approach that builds on the strengths of other nations, rather than excluding them.

Bipartisan task forces call on the US to provide diplomatic leadership to strengthen the nonproliferation regime in order to protect the United States.  Senior political and military leaders spell out how US security can be safeguarded through US leadership to rebuild a strong series of global rules against proliferation – beginning with new negotiations with Russia and the ratification of a treaty that bans nuclear testing – at the same time that the US continues to take strong stands to protect its allies and deal firmly with countries that try to develop or sell nuclear weapons.  Former Clinton administration Secretary of Defense William Perry and George H.W. Bush’s National Security Advisor, Brent Scowcroft, wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed yesterday: “An effective strategy to reduce nuclear dangers must build on five pillars: revitalizing strategic dialogue with nuclear-armed powers, particularly Russia and China; strengthening the international nuclear nonproliferation regime; reaffirming the protection of the U.S. nuclear umbrella to our allies; maintaining the credibility of the U.S. nuclear deterrent; and implementing best security practices for nuclear weapons and weapons-usable materials worldwide.” Perry and Scowcroft are also the co-chairs of a CFR task force on nonproliferation.  The task force’s report recommends, in part, that the U.S. “Reaffirm support for the agreed positive and negative security assurances that the United States has made to nonnuclear NPT states.” A recent report from the bipartisan, Partnership for a Secure America (PSA), made similar recommendations for strengthening the nonproliferation regime.  PSA recommends that the U.S.  “Reaffirm the NPT as the cornerstone of global nonproliferation and disarmament efforts by sending a high-level delegation to the 2010 Review Conference.” The CFR report also recommends that the U.S. “Seek to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), first assembling an expert group to analyze the policy and technical issues related to the CTBT and then presenting the treaty for Senate ratification; if successful in ratifying the treaty, work with other holdout nations to do the same.”  The CFR task force also stresses the importance of American efforts to work with individual partners, namely Russia and China, “The report underscores the need to strengthen nuclear risk reduction with the two major nuclear-armed states of Russia and China. The U.S. and Russian presidents recently pledged to reduce their nuclear arsenals. The Task Force supports efforts to renew legally binding arms control pacts with Russia by seeking follow-on agreements to START and the 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT). The report also urges the United States and Russia to initiate a serious strategic dialogue, because it is only through such engagement that they can open up opportunities for deeper reductions in their arsenals and gain a better sense of the feasibility of moving toward multilateral nuclear arms control.” [Wall Street Journal, 5/27/09. Council on Foreign Relations, 5/09. PSA, 5/09]

Opponents of non-proliferation initiative remain wedded to policies that have failed us in the past. Our allies and partners have indicated that US support for global non-proliferation rules is one of the signs they are looking for in order to work more closely with us on specific challenges such as Iran and North Korea.  Yet conservatives look instead to Bush administration policies of isolation and military threats – which actually resulted in North Korea choosing to build a weapon and Iran dramatically heightening its nuclear program.  Meanwhile, the US fulfills the provisions of key international treaties such as the Comprehensive Test Ban – even the Bush Administration did not see the need to test new weapons during its tenure – but doesn’t derive the political benefits.  Despite conservative objections, the US has dramatically improved technology to verify others’ compliance with the treaty and to maintain our own nuclear arsenal without testing.  As the CFR report says, “The treaty offers distinct technical and political benefits. Of the technical advantages, the CTBT would make it harder for a nuclear-armed state to develop new advanced nuclear weapons such as thermonuclear warheads or miniaturized weapons. But it would not prevent all modernization or refurbishment of existing nuclear arsenals. Nuclear armed states maintain the vitality of these arsenals using many tools short of nuclear testing.”  But without ratifying the treaty, we cannot press China and India to do the same, or gain other political benefits. [Council on Foreign Relations, 5/09. President Obama, 4/05/09]

North Korean nuclear challenge reminds us of both the seriousness of the threat and the need for diplomacy.  There are no good military options to address the nuclear proliferation challenges in North Korea, Iran, and the sub-continent.  Instead intensive diplomacy is required, and new responsiveness from Russia and China indicates that commitment to a broader non-proliferation strategy will pay dividends in dealing with the hard cases. In response to North Korea the Obama administration has ramped its diplomatic efforts, as the Washington Post writes, “At the United Nations, diplomats are pushing for sanctions with teeth against the government of Kim Jong Il. Proposals include freezing assets, banning travel for elites and cutting access to international banks. Japan and the United States want a new resolution that makes cargo inspections of North Korean vessels ‘compulsory’ for U.N. members.” This has included unusually assertive steps from Russia -- “Russia's ambassador to the United Nations convened an emergency meeting of the Security Council to condemn the test and pledged to support a strong new resolution against North Korea.” The Post attributes this to the improvement in U.S.-Russian relations: “Medvedev may see the issue in the context of his efforts to improve relations with the United States, [Vasily] Mikheev added. ‘Nonproliferation is one of the most important areas where Russia and America can work together,’ he said.” As Radio Free Europe noted progress is being made as, “the United States and Russia have begun talks in Moscow aimed at replacing the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START).” There have also been cautious signs that China – which has historically been reticent to confront North Korea – is more open to a U.S.-led diplomatic effort aimed at addressing the regime’s behavior.  The Washington Post reports: “The United States has long sought help from China, North Korea's largest trading partner, in pressuring North Korea's reclusive leaders to give up their nuclear ambitions. But China has tried to win North Korea's cooperation through favors... and has blocked sanctions pushed by Washington...U.S. officials say they sense a different tone in China's response this time.” [Washington Post, 5/28/09]

Regional and global diplomacy is also a necessary response to other non-proliferation.  The Obama administration’s diplomatic approach to Iran is also expected to benefit from increased willingness by Russia, China and Europe to support the US as they perceive it to be more interested in supporting global standards against the spread of nuclear weapons.   The Washington Post reported today on the increasing worries over nuclear proliferation and an arms race emanating from South Asia. “U.S. and allied officials and experts who have tracked developments in South Asia have grown increasingly worried over the rapid growth of the region's more mature nuclear programs, in part because of the risk that weapons could fall into the hands of terrorists. India and Pakistan see their nuclear programs as vital points of leverage in an arms race that has begun to take on the pace and diversity, although not the size, of U.S.-Soviet nuclear competition during the Cold War, according to U.S. intelligence and proliferation experts.”  India and Pakistan have often cited US unwillingness to limit or reduce its own nuclear arsenal as justification for their pursuit of weapons and disinterest in joining international regimes to safeguard nuclear weapons and materials.  In this tense environment, the appointment of Richard Holbrooke as special envoy, and high-level attention from Secretaries Clinton and Gates and chairman of the Joint chiefs Admiral Mullen, are welcome.  [Washington Post, 5/28/09. CFR, 5/09]

What We’re Reading

South Korea and the U.S. raised their alert level on North Korea.  Russia considers toughening its stance on last weekend’s nuclear tests.

Israel rejected Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s call for a freeze on West Bank settlement construction.

The torture photos that President Obama seeks to keep secret allegedly graphically depict the rape and sexual abuse of detainees.

May is the deadliest month in Iraq for U.S. troops since September 2008.

President Obama ordered a review of U.S. government secrecy procedures.

The Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility for yesterday’s Lahore bombing which killed up to 30 people.  The Taliban wags war on Pakistani police.  Pakistan and India’s nuclear developments raise concern in the U.S.

Amnesty International released a new report warning that the global financial crisis exacerbates human rights abuses.

With Burmese pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s trial ongoing, Burma marks two anniversaries: 19 years since she won an unrecognized election and six years since she was last free.

Hezbollah is in talks with the E.U. and the IMF about continued support for Lebanon in the event that the group wins the June 7 parliamentary elections.

President Obama asked for $1 billion to expand U.S. diplomatic presence in Pakistan and Afghanistan, including $736 million for a new U.S. “super-embassy” in Pakistan.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi traveled to China to discuss energy and climate change.

Queen Elizabeth II, the only living head of state who served in World War II, is reportedly very upset over being left out of the upcoming D-Day anniversary celebrations in which Prime Minister Gordon Brown, President Obama, and President Nicolas Sarkozy will take part.

Commentary of the Day

Prime Minister Gordon Brown describes the importance of global trade to solving the financial crises and warns against trade barriers.

Ruth Marcus deconstructs former Vice President Dick Cheney’s national security arguments.

David Pilling looks at the national consciousness in South Korea following former President Roh Moo-hyun’s suicide.

The Boston Globe opines about possible peace negotiations between the Karazai government and the Taliban, stating that any final deal must include protections for Afghan woman and girls.