A series of high-level meetings this week points up the interconnections in the Obama administration’s comprehensive strategy for the Middle East.  The most high-profile of these meetings will take place between President Obama and Israeli President Shimon Peres, while Secretary Gates is in the Middle East meeting with Egyptian and Saudi leaders. The new approach rejects the neoconservative trope that the road to Jerusalem goes through Baghdad or Tehran or Damascus. There is no quick route to peace in the Middle East; the road goes through all of these places, but it ultimately begins and ends in Jerusalem.  Therefore, peace can only be achieved through a comprehensive, integrated strategy that both strengthens the regional climate for peace, as well as simultaneously addresses the root grievances of the conflict. Conversely, efforts to address Iran’s nuclear program and reach a new understanding with Iran are only strengthened by progress in the peace process. As White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel was reported to say in the Jerusalem Post, “The task of forming an international coalition to thwart Iran's nuclear program will be made easier if progress is made in peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.”

Series of high-level meetings this week demonstrate Obama administration’s strategy for comprehensive Middle East diplomacy.  Meetings with Israeli and Arab leaders focus on the inter-related challenges of the Middle East Peace Process, Iraq and Iran.  The Associated Press reports: “Amid a flurry of meetings on domestic issues, President Barack Obama also is sitting down with Israeli President Shimon Peres to talk about the Middle East. Obama greets the Israeli leader Tuesday at the White House. Peres flew to the U.S. as part of Israel's effort to soften the world's view of its hawkish new prime minister's government.   In addition, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates plans to meet with Egyptian and Saudi leaders to discuss another aspect of the Obama administration’s Middle East strategy: engaging with Iran.  “Defense Secretary Robert Gates tried to reassure Mideast allies Tuesday that the United States will keep them informed as it tries to reconcile with Iran,” according to the Washington Post.  Gates commented on how the Arab states should view U.S. outreach to Iran, saying “There's probably some concerns in the region that may draw on an exaggerated sense of what's possible. And, I just think it's important to reassure our friends and allies in the region that, while we're willing to reach out to the Iranians, as the president said, with an open hand, I think everybody in the administration, from the president on down, is pretty realistic, and will be pretty tough-minded if we still encounter a closed fist.”  In addition, Gates will also use the trip to push for greater involvement from Arab leaders in Iraq’s future.  Voice of America reported that Gates “wants American friends in the Middle East, like mostly Sunni Muslim Egypt and Saudi Arabia, to work more closely with Iraq's Shiite-led government.” [AP, 5/05/09. Washington Post, 5/5/09. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, 5/04/09. Voice of America, 5/04/09]

Constructive American engagement is a key ingredient for spurring progress, while episodic or superficial engagement leads to deterioration and increased violence – which harms broader US national interests.  Ultimately, only the parties can make the difficult choices that can bring about a resolution to the Arab-Israeli conflict.  But times when the US was strongly engaged saw progress and reduced levels of violence, and US disengagement brought harm not just in the region but to wider US national security interests.  As Richard Haas and Martin Indyk write in Foreign Affairs, “the vast majority of Middle Eastern states still look to the United States as the ultimate guarantor of their security and the power most able to help them achieve their objectives.”  America’s involvement in the peace process is vital for both the parties involved and for American interests.  The conflict continues to undermine American credibility in the Arab world and limits our policy options in the region.  Key US partners in Europe, the Middle East and elsewhere have indicated that, for them, early US engagement in the peace process is a key litmus test.  Thus, Obama’s early and robust engagement will have payoff beyond progress achieved on the ground that will be well worth the political capital expended.  The White House recognizes this important fact.  Just this week the new Israeli government responded to the Obama Administration, with Prime Minister Netanyahu saying yesterday “We are prepared to resume peace negotiations without any delay, without any preconditions. The sooner the better.”  [Foreign Affairs, January/February 2009.  Newsweek, 1/12/08. Jerusalem Post, 5/4/09. Politico, 5/5/09]

Eight years’ efforts to isolate Iran and disengage from the Middle East peace have failed; only a comprehensive strategy for achieving American interests in the Middle East can succeed.  As David Ignatius said in the waning days of the Bush administration, “President Bush will leave office with a kind of double failure on Iran: Administration hard-liners haven't checked Tehran's drive to acquire nuclear-weapons technology, and moderates haven't engaged Iran in negotiation and dialogue.  The strategic balance between the two countries is the opposite of what Bush had hoped to accomplish: Iran is stronger than it was eight years ago, and the United States, fighting costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, is weaker. Iran spurns America's carrots and dismisses its sticks.” Iran has drawn closer to reaching nuclear “breakout” capability, now operating as many as 5,000 centrifuges at its central enrichment plant in Natanz. Iran’s steady progress has led Mohammed El Baradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, to call the last five years of efforts to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions a “failure.” The disengagement of the early Bush years helped produce a serious spike in violence and deterioration in prospects for resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict. Obama has laid out the vision behind his approach:  “This reflects a fundamental truth: we can no longer deal with regional challenges in isolation – we need a smarter, more sustainable and comprehensive approach... That is why we are renewing our diplomacy, while relieving the burden on our military... developing a strategy to use all elements of American power to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon; and actively seeking a lasting peace between Israel and the Arab world.”  [Hillary Clinton, 1/13/09. The American Prospect, 6/30/03. President Obama, 2/27/09. David Ignatius, 11/8/08. AP, 11/26/08. LA Times, 12/06/08. AFP, 3/02/09. President Obama, 1/26/09. CNN, 4/21/09]

What We’re Reading

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Adm. Mike Mullen said that Afghanistan is the U.S. military’s main effort and top focus.  CNN interviewed Afghan Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid.  Jalrez Valley proves a good test case for the influx of U.S. forces into Afghanistan.  Hamid Karzai seeks a U.S. civilian surge in Afghanistan, which may be beyond U.S. capabilities.

The Taliban tightens its hold in Swat valley, as fighting resumes and civilians flee.  The U.S. is warily encouraged by Pakistan’s efforts against the Taliban near Islamabad.  Pakistan’s porous border poses immense challenges for the U.S.  The LA Times asks what the Pakistani people would tell President Obama.

The senior leader of Hamas said it has stopped firing rockets into Israel, and is redefining its ambitions.  Israeli President Shimon Peres will meet President Obama today, as the U.S. and Benjamin Netanyahu’s government diverge on a plan for peace.

Georgian troops mutinied at a base near the capitol, but the uprising was contained.  Georgia accused Russia of being behind the mutiny as a coup attempt.  NATO military exercises in the region are scheduled to begin tomorrow, ratcheting up tensions.

Iraq is committed to the June 30 deadline for U.S. troops to withdraw from urban areas.

Democrats in the House removed funding from the budget to close Guantanamo, but funds can be transferred from another source.

Rose Gottemoeller, the lead U.S. arms control negotiator, signaled flexibility towards Moscow for a new round of START talks.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei publicly rebuked President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for dismissing an official.

The head of the NSA said that the U.S. needs to build a digital warfare capability.

Gunmen killed 44 people at an engagement ceremony in Turkey, suspected to be part of an ongoing blood feud.

Violence in Yemen shows the growing power of the local insurgency and raises U.S. concern.

The European Commission’s estimated 4% contraction for EU economies is double what they predicted only three months ago.

Commentary of the Day

Ahmed Rashid discusses the importance of Pakistan’s “critical hour.”

Gideon Rachman says President Obama’s apologies for past U.S. actions are a sign of strength, not weakness, as U.S. conservatives have argued.

Former Secretaries of State Madeleine Albright and Colin Powell urge President Obama and Congress not to forget about the importance of foreign aid.

Peter Bergen describes Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s political power.

Randy Pollock examines how China has “boxed itself in” by focusing on math and science and stifling creativity.