2/2/09

This weekend’s peaceful provincial elections marked a major milestone for the Iraqi people.  However, the key concern remains whether or not the elections will be viewed as fair once all of the ballots have been counted and whether the losers will accept the outcome.  If the results are accepted these elections will likely be a significant step towards a more inclusive political system and sustainable stability.  But if they are not, we could see a spike in violence in contested especially in Ninewah and Diyala.

Either way, these elections do symbolize the next major step in American disengagement.  What is clear now is that Iraqis are taking on greater responsibility, America’s role is shrinking, and all sides are ready for our combat presence to draw to a close.  The U.S. should encourage this trend and send a clear message about its commitment to withdrawal by making an early down payment on the redeployment of American forces.  Meanwhile, it should continue steps to help mitigate any potential conflicts between the Kurds and Arabs in the North, do what it can to ensure that Sunnis are integrated into the government, and launch a broader diplomatic strategy that engages all of Iraq’s neighbors.  Together, these steps give Iraq its best chance at sustainable stability.

Iraqi Provincial Elections proceed smoothly, amidst signs of shrinking U.S. presence and influence.  “Iraqis voted on Saturday for local representatives, on an almost violence-free election day aimed at creating provincial councils that more closely represent Iraq’s ethnic, sectarian and tribal balance. By nightfall, there were no confirmed deaths, and children played soccer on closed-off streets in a generally joyous atmosphere.”  According to the Wall Street Journal, “[e]lections officials said there were no serious technical problems during voting on Saturday, which was the first time Iraqis administered elections on their own in the post-Saddam Hussein era.”  While, “[u]nofficial results should be known by the end of this week,” reported the Journal, “it will take two to three weeks for official results to be announced.”  Preliminary numbers show a voter turnout of 51% of eligible Iraqis, down from the 58% who cast their ballots in the 2005 provincial elections, and the 80% who participated in the last national election in December 2005.  Alyssa Rubin of the NY Times pointed to a broad phenomenon of “mutual disengagement,” evidenced by the miles of Iraqi roads without American convoys, and the security checkpoints manned by the Iraqi army.  “The elections on Saturday were a step toward a peaceful approach to settling disagreements among factions about the shape of the country,” Rubin observed.  “If new governments are seated from north to south and east to west, the United States and Iraq can begin the next act in earnest.” [NY Times, 2/01/09. WSJ, 2/02/09. NY Times, 2/01/09]

Potential for election-related violence remains. The key is that the losers must accept the results.  While the elections in Iraq went through peacefully, “authorities are still concerned that those who lost the elections may not peacefully accept the elections results.”  The Chicago Tribune writes today that “Just as important as the voting will be the outcome, which is being watched closely in Washington for signs that political stability is taking root and that Iraqis are prepared to settle their differences peacefully at the ballot box.” Earlier this month Mark Lynch wrote in Foreign Policy that “Although the elections may be an attractive target for spoiler violence, the greater risk probably comes afterwards as disgruntled losers defect from the political process and newly elected leaders attempt to take the reins of power. Many groups have exaggerated expectations of these elections, and some disappointment is quite likely -- particularly along ethnic and sectarian fault lines in Baghdad and Ninewa province, but also between competing Sunni and Shia groupings who have for years been fiercely struggling over intra-communal power. The United States should be prepared to engage with such dissatisfied groups to prevent their relapse into violence. After the elections, the Provincial Powers Law is due to come into effect, which will have far-reaching effects on the balance of power between Baghdad and the provinces and could trigger clashes between the new provincial governments and the centralizing efforts of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.”  [WS Journal, 2/1/09. Chicago Tribune, 2/2/09. Foreign Policy, 1/09]

U.S. should proceed with its redeployment from Iraq and continue to take a number of steps to help facilitate a stable and inclusive political system.  While the situation in Iraq is very complex and sensitive as U.S. forces prepare for redeployment from Iraq, there are several steps that U.S. policy-makers can take to help both Iraq and America.  First, the U.S. should demonstrate its commitment to withdrawal by making an early down payment on the redeployment of American forces, which will give the new Administration credibility in Iraq and the region and disarm its critics.  Second, the U.S. officials should work to diffuse Kurdish-Arab tensions, which form a dangerous fault line crossing political, economic and military issues. Tensions will continue to exist around control of oil and territory in the North.  Third the U.S. should take steps to ensure that the Sunnis feel included in the government, to engage their energies and defuse the threat of renewed sectarian violence.  Fourth the U.S. should develop a comprehensive strategy for constructively engaging Iraq’s neighbors, the long-term sine qua non for regional peace. [NSN, 1/30/09]

What We’re Reading

Gunmen kidnapped an American U.N. official in Pakistan.

A suicide bomber dressed in a police uniform killed 21 officers in southern Afghanistan.  Afghans protested a U.S. missile strike they say killed civilians.

Mexican drug cartels continue to evade American border security.

Johanna Sigurdardottir becomes Iceland’s prime minister and the first openly gay head of state.

New attacks from Israel and Gaza over the weekend test the fragile truce. Israeli candidates debate the outcome of the Gaza war.

Greek riot police fired tear gas at farmers to stop a tractor demonstration in continuing clashes over financial woes.

The Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction released his report on postwar Iraq, finding wasteful spending and lessons to be applied to Afghanistan.

China orders efforts to stem potential social unrest after 20 million migrant workers lose their jobs.

A Chinese human rights advocate who criticized the government’s response to the Sichuan earthquake and helped families of victims faces trial tomorrow for “illegal possession of state secrets.”

The African Union elects Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi as chairman.

The Dalai Lama is in the hospital after complaining of pains in his arms.

Short-staffed USAID turns to contract spending, struggling to manage it.

Commentary of the Day

Fareed Zakaria lays out the key steps for success in Afghanistan.

Roger Cohen visits Tehran and writes about U.S.-Iranian relations.

Soner Cagaptay discusses modern Turkey.  The Washington Post interviewed Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Don Podesta compares former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich’s efforts to stifle the Chicago Tribune to “soft censorship” in the developing world.