This week clearly demonstrated the globally disastrous impact of President Bush’s foreign policy. Russia’s willingness to invade a Western ally showed not only the collapse of the President’s approach to Russia – which was almost entirely rooted in his personal relationship with fmr. President Putin – but also the significant decline in American power and prestige over the last eight years. With over the top rhetoric, the Bush administration repeatedly made unrealistic commitments to Georgia, which it clearly had no intention of keeping – a fact that has only further undercut U.S. credibility around the world. The fraying of the  transatlantic alliance over the last eight years was also in full display as the U.S. and Europe were slow to respond and lacked a common approach.  

But it wasn’t just the Georgia-Russia conflict. At the same time the President was coming to the realization that his insights into Putin’s soul may have been misguided, another failed policy was coming full circle. The announcement that President Musharraf would soon resign signaled the failed conclusion of the Bush administration’s approach to Pakistan, which – like its policy toward Russia - was based solely on supporting one individual. Meanwhile, almost seven years since 9-11, the administration’s failures next door in Afghanistan were also apparent, as violence worsened to the point of threatening Kabul and its surrounding areas. This week clearly demonstrates the need for a new approach, not more of the same.  

The U.S. made hollow commitments to Georgia while neglecting to formulate a broader policy toward Russia.  “Many officials in the U.S. government who have worked on the Russia relationship in recent years said, President Bush lionized Mr. Saakashvili as a model for democracy in the region to a point that the Georgian leader may have held unrealistic expectations about the amount of support he might receive from the U.S. and the West. These officials also point to a lack of clarity governing the U.S.-Georgia military relationship, which was increasingly close but not yet a formal alliance… Finally, these officials said, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice seemed so preoccupied with Iraq, Iran and the Arab-Israeli conflict that she didn't have time to fashion an effective response to Russia’s muscle-flexing on its borders.”  Additionally, Secretary Gates seemed to contradict the administration’s previous approach to Russia when he said, “I have never believed that one should make national security policy on the basis of trust. I think you make national security policy based on interests and realities.”
 [WSJ, 8/12/08; NY Times, 8/15/08]

Events in Georgia this week have illustrated the diminished prestige of the U.S. in the world.   “The Bush administration mixed strong rhetoric with modest action… in response to Russia's continued military incursion in Georgia, warning that Moscow's international aspirations are threatened if it does not honor a negotiated cease-fire in the conflict…Bush's statement, along with the moderate measures that came with it, served to underscore the limited options available to the United States, which has neither the wherewithal nor the willingness to enter into a military conflict with Russia on its territorial border.” Moreover, “Janusz Bugajski, author of a forthcoming book on Russia's relations with its neighbors, said Washington's lack of forceful response sends a chilling message to nations that had been relying on the U.S. to counter Russia's power. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin ‘is demonstrating to the rest of the world that the United States is not the sole superpower any more. Or if it is, it's so stretched that it's not going to come to your aid,’ Bugajski said. ‘That weakens the U.S. position globally quite a bit.’” [Washington Post, 8/14/08; LA Times, 8/13/08]

Conflict demonstrated the fraying of the transatlantic alliance. Jamie Rubin explains“Georgia has become yet another example of stunning incompetence by the Bush administration. Let's remember it was Chancellor Merkel of Germany who became the power broker when leaders at the NATO summit debated the subject of Georgia this spring. The United States, which has traditionally led NATO on such subjects, failed to push through a so-called Membership Action Plan for Georgia. That failure, as much as anything, gave Moscow a crucial signal that the West could not muster a serious response should it crack down on its troublesome neighbor.” [Huffington Post, 8/13/08]

While aggressive rhetoric has been shown to be counterproductive, McCain has recklessly ratcheted it up even further. The Politico writes, “While virtually every other world leader called for calm in Georgia last Thursday morning, John McCain did something he’s done many times over his career in public life: He condemned Russia…though neither he nor any other leader has suggested that the West has any real way to blunt Moscow’s ultimate intentions. He’s also faced the accusation that his encouragement of Georgia’s dramatic defiance of Russia helped trigger the crisis…McCain’s current foreign policy team, including chief adviser Randy Scheunemann, are largely drawn from the circle of neoconservatives who backed the U.S. invasion of Iraq. To many of them, he’s a more authentic version of President Bush, whose public commitment to the spread of democracy, as they see it, was too often neglected in practice, notably in Russia.” [Politico, 8/13/08]

One of McCain’s most senior advisors has a history of close, lucrative ties with Georgia.  In the Los Angeles Times, Rosa Brooks writes, “Maybe from John McCain, Republican heir apparent, whose top foreign policy advisor, Randy Scheunemann, also just happens to be a highly paid lobbyist for the Georgian government… According to the Washington Post, the relationship between Scheunemann and Georgia used to be very cozy (not to mention lucrative for Scheunemann). Between Jan. 1, 2007, and May 15, 2008, while Scheunemann was also a paid McCain advisor, ‘Georgia paid his firm $290,000 in lobbying fees.’ And what did Georgia get in return? Well, no troops, that's for sure. But they got Scheunemann's (expensive) pledge to garner U.S. support for Georgia's admission to NATO and for its claims to South Ossetia, and his commitment to use his ties to politicians such as McCain to advance Georgia's causes. McCain has sponsored legislation supporting Georgia's claims over South Ossetia, an issue on which he was lobbied by Scheunemann's firm. And as recently as mid-April, Scheunemann was simultaneously taking money from Georgia and actively preparing McCain for supportive calls with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. Is it any wonder that Saakashvili concluded that he had the backing of the U.S. Republican power structure when it came to South Ossetia?” [LA Times, 8/14/08]

Quick Hits

Further heightening tensions with Russia, the United States and Poland have signed an agreement allowing the U.S. to place ballistic missiles in Polish territory for the missile defense system.  Russia has responded angrily, threatened by the proximity of the shield, and stated that Polish agreement to the deal “cannot go unpunished.”

Crime and violence are raging around the Georgian city of Gori, as Russian soldiers occupying the city watch with “amused detachment.”  Journalists and human rights groups are beginning to uncover evidence of ethnic cleansing against Georgians by vengeful Ossetians, also ignored by Russian troops.

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf is reportedly set to resign within a few days following widespread calls for him to quit or face impeachment; his spokesman denies the reports, but the international community is starting to look beyond Musharraf to the future of troubled Pakistan.

A suicide bombing in Iraq killed 18 Shiites during a religious pilgrimage.

Wall Street has begun to be affected by recent events with Russia, re-evaluating the stability of the energy giant.

Elections in Iraq are in jeopardy as Shiite government security forces have moved to discourage voter participation by non-Shiite elements.

A refugee crisis is developing in Sri Lanka after “tens of thousands” of people fled the government’s military push against Tamil Tiger rebels.

In our continuing series of town halls examining torture and America’s prosecution of the war on terror, The National Security Network held an event in Norfolk yesterday with Army interpreter Erik Saar.