The findings of the recent National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran represent positive news for American security. They suggest that the United States has more time to deal with the problem of a nuclear Iran and should be more aggressively pursuing the “diplomatic offensive” called for by the Iraq Study Group. Yet, a small group of neoconservatives have challenged the findings of the nation’s 16 intelligence agencies - despite having no access to the classified intelligence - because it conflicts with their view of the world. In fact, the neoconservative movement has a long history of challenging the intelligence community when its conclusions are inconvenient to them: the Team B exercises in the 1970s, the Rumsfeld Commission in the 1990s, and the Office of Special Plans before the Iraq War are just a few examples. In all of these cases the career civil servants in the intelligence community turned out to be more accurate than the neocons in their assessments. It appears that when it comes to the Iran NIE, neocons are once again trying to generate smoke where there is no fire.

NEOCONS WITH NO ACCESS TO INTELLIGENCE ARE QUESTIONING THE NIE BECAUSE IT DOESN’T FIT THEIR WORLD VIEW

Myth: “Like their counterparts in pre-World War II Britain, today’s spies are serving up soporific conclusions certain (if not calculated) to encourage inaction by the West — and to buy our enemies time to prepare their onslaught... The intelligence community remains ponderous, unimaginative, and yet given to wishful thinking. Where hard knowledge is unavailable, judgments are served up that are either unfounded or simply ludicrous..” --- Frank Gaffney, Center for Security [National Review, 12/4/07]

Fact: Neocons sitting at think tanks have no access to secret intelligence that shaped the NIE. The neoconservatives that are attacking the findings in the Iran NIE are not in the Bush administration and subsequently have no access to the classified intelligence that was used to inform the document. Therefore, their attacks on the NIE are, at best, nothing more than conjecture or, at worst, rooted in conspiratorial notions concerning the intentions of the intelligence community that have no basis in reality.

Fact: The intelligence was heavily vetted. “Because some of the information sources were new, Hayden (Director of the CIA) decided to launch a ‘red team’ counter-intelligence operation to make sure that the U.S. wasn't falling for Iranian disinformation [and that the analysis was well grounded]. In late October... the red team found that the possibility of Iranian disinformation was ‘plausible but not likely.’” [Time, 12/06/07]

Myth: “This NIE was presented with a clear intention to deceive and to redirect foreign policy... I have no doubt that these people [the intelligence community] believe they are protecting the nation from the President.” --- Danielle Pletka, American Enterprise Institute [Washington Post, 12/07/07]

Fact: The NIE process was overseen by a Bush Administration appointee. Neocons that attack the veracity of the NIE are also attacking Michael McConnell, the person President Bush chose to lead the intelligence community. Before becoming the Director of National Intelligence, McConnell served as Vice Admiral in the U.S. Navy and was former head of the National Security Agency. [Salon, 1/8/07. NY Times 1/4/07]

Myth: “I entertain an even darker suspicion. It is that the intelligence community, which has for some years now been leaking material calculated to undermine George W. Bush, is doing it again.” --- Norman Podhoretz, foreign policy advisor to Rudy Giuliani, [Commentary, 12/3/07]

Fact: The President and Vice President support the work done by McConnell and the intelligence community. Vice President Cheney commented that “I don’t have any reason to question the — what the community has produced, with respect to the NIE on Iran.” [Politico, 12/6/07]

NEOCONSERVATIVES HAVE A LONG HISTORY OF BEING WRONG ON INTELLIGENCE THAT DOESN’T FIT THEIR AGENDA

Cold War “Team B” assessments “ridiculously inflated.” “It all started with the now famous ‘Team B’ exercise. During the early 1970s, hard-line conservatives pilloried the CIA for being soft on the Soviets.” “That 1976 Team B, by assuming the most dire of Soviet intentions and overlooking the slow collapse of the Soviet economy, came up with estimates of Soviet military strength that we later learned to be ridiculously inflated.” [Newsweek, 6/16/03. NY Times, 6/14/03]

GOP Congress in 1990s created “Team B” led by Donald Rumsfeld to contest CIA and DIA findings on missile defense. “A 1995 intelligence estimate by the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency concluded, however, that the threat of a rogue state being able to deploy an ICBM capable of reaching the United States was at least fifteen years away.” This estimate was not satisfactory for Republicans in Congress, who requested that Donald Rumsfeld conduct a “Team B” exercise to discredit the CIA findings. The findings of the Rumsfeld Commission were used to justify heavy investments in National Missile Defense. But almost 15 years later, the CIA and DIA appear to have been correct. [Frontline, 10/02/07]

In the run up to Iraq, Cheney and Rumsfeld disregarded intelligence agencies and set up own shop. “The agency, called the Office of Special Plans (OSP), was set up by the defense secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, to second-guess CIA information and operated under the patronage of hard-line conservatives in the top rungs of the administration, the Pentagon and at the White House, including Vice-President Dick Cheney.” Their conclusions regarding both Iraq’s connection to 9/11 and its WMD program were wrong. [Guardian, 7/17/03]