This weekend, a suicide bomber blew up an armored bus in the capital of Afghanistan, killing 17 people, including 13 Americans. That attack is one more tragic event in a mixed picture where violence in Afghanistan is trending. While the Pentagon sees fewer insurgent-initiated attacks, the UN notes a rise in civilian casualties. No attack should derail the essential process of transition to Afghan authority - on security but also in politics and the economy. The first of two international conferences aimed at coordinating the transition process begins this week in Istanbul, Turkey. That conference will focus on security, good governance and economic growth. Governance, specifically, is an area that needs strengthening for the handover to be successful. As a Pentagon report noted last week, the government of Afghanistan has made only "limited progress" towards being sustainable and accountable.

Attack underscores a mixed picture on violence in Afghanistan. This weekend's attack, which killed 17 troops and civilians, was "the 16th high-profile attack in Kabul this year, said the U.S. military, and the single-most deadly strike on the Western coalition in the capital since the 2001 invasion," reports the Wall Street Journal. The episode underscores the mixed picture of violence in Afghanistan. As the Financial Times reports, "The Pentagon issued a progress report on Friday that said that the number of enemy-initiated attacks in Afghanistan is falling. Since May of this year, the monthly number of these attacks has been lower than the same month in 2010, a trend not seen since 2007, the report said. However, the United Nations said in a report in July that more Afghan civilians had been killed in the first half of this year than during any period since the start of the war in 2001. Civilian deaths were 15 per cent higher compared to the first half of 2010, due to roadside and suicide bombings, fighting and more deaths from air strikes." [Wall Street Journal, 10/31/11. Financial Times, 10/30/11]

Violence shouldn't derail transition - security as well as political and economic tracks must move ahead. The latest string of attacks comes as the international community gathers to coordinate the process for transitioning responsibility for Afghanistan to Afghans. This week, the first of two international conferences on transition begins in Istanbul, Turkey. The latter conference will be held in Bonn, Germany, in December. As the U.S. Institute of Peace's Hodei Sultan writes, there are three mains components of the transition process: "The first component of a successful transition in Afghanistan is the security handover, which will require building up the capacity of the ANSF-including the Afghan National Army, the Afghan National Police and other elements of the Afghan security forces... The second component is a political settlement. Most Afghans and members of the international community recognize that a political settlement is considered critical to bringing about genuine peace to Afghanistan... The third component of the transition process is the economic component. Weaning the Afghan economy off foreign aid and military spending is critical to a successful economic transition." While the media discussion tends to focus on incidents of violence and how they relate to the security situation, political and economic progress are also essential to a transition that achieves U.S. goals in Afghanistan. [USIP, 9/20/11]

Significant governance reforms are necessary for transition. Governance in particular remains a weak spot in the plan for transition. As the Pentagon's report noted last week, the government of Afghanistan, led by Hamid Karzai, "has made only limited progress in building the human and institutional capacity necessary for sustainable government." The effects of weak governance can be seen throughout the country. A report today in the Washington Post, which alleges that U.S. officials knew about "systematic torture" in Afghan intelligence agency detention centers, illustrates the larger problem of weak governance and a lack of accountability in Afghanistan. [Pentagon report via Politico, 10/28/11. Washington Post, 10/10/11]

What We're Reading

The United States is negotiating with Kuwait to allow American combat troops to be based in the Persian Gulf area after completing the announced withdrawal from Iraq by the end of this year.

The Arab League handed Syrian officials a plan for ending seven months of increasingly violent unrest against President Bashar al Assad's rule.

Libya's outgoing prime minister called for speeding up the timetable for holding elections, warning that a political vacuum could develop after an eight-month civil war.

For the first time since fighting broke out in the Yemeni capital, Sana International Airport came under direct attack.

An internet video is threatening Mexico's Zetas drug cartel with exposure of its allies in the local police and news media this week unless the gang frees a kidnapped member of the international hacker movement known as "Anonymous."

Israel and Islamic Jihad are signaling they are interested in an informal ceasefire after a wave of tit-for-tat attacks on the Gaza border.

An antigovernment rally in Lahore, Pakistan, led by the former cricket star Imran Khan, attracted a huge crowd estimated at more than 100,000 people.

A Philippine military air and ground assault in the south killed three Abu Sayyaf commanders and two other militants but failed to snare a key Southeast Asian terror suspect.

Ships sailing under Britain's flag will be permitted to carry armed guards on some perilous routes to combat the threat from pirates, the prime minister said.

Commentary of the Day

David Lam explains that there are now 7 billion people in the world, and resource challenges remain, but a child born today will almost surely have a better life than decades ago.

Graham Allison and Robert D. Blackwill give 10 reasons why Russia still matters and is a key part to advancing U.S. interests. 

The Economist argues there is no need to fear the Arab Spring and the perception of declining Western power in the Middle East.

The New York Times explores how to safely pare down what it calls the "bloated" nuclear weapons budget.