4/6/10

The Obama administration announced today the future of U.S. nuclear weapons policy by releasing its much anticipated Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). This is only the third such document of its kind, and unlike its predecessors, focuses on preventing both nuclear terrorism and nuclear proliferation-the most serious nuclear threats of the day.  Importantly, by clarifying the role of nuclear weapons in national security policy, this statement sends a clear signal to the international community that the U.S. is committed to maintaining international security by strengthening the global nonproliferation regime. 

In addition, the NPR also cements the ability of the U.S. to maintain the proper role for nuclear weapons, while also having confidence in their reliability and effectiveness. National security experts agree that the Administration is moving forward smartly on reducing the role of nuclear weapons, and doing so in a responsible manner that takes current and future threats directly into account.  These policies will be on further display as a series of important nonproliferation milestones take place over the coming days, including the signing of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) with Russia, the hosting of a major Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, and the Non Proliferation Treaty Review Conference in New York in May.

Obama administration develops nuclear security policy for the 21^st Century.  In support of the NPR's 21^st century approach, President Obama released a statement today, saying, "The Nuclear Posture Review, led by the Department of Defense, recognizes that the greatest threat to U.S. and global security is no longer a nuclear exchange between nations, but nuclear terrorism by violent extremists and nuclear proliferation to an increasing number of states.  Moreover, it recognizes that our national security and that of our allies and partners can be increasingly defended by America's unsurpassed conventional military capabilities and strong missile defenses." 

The 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) recognizes twin threats of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism and sets U.S. policy accordingly. "These changes in the nuclear threat environment have altered the hierarchy of our nuclear concerns and strategic objectives. In coming years, we must give top priority to discouraging additional countries from acquiring nuclear weapons capabilities and stopping terrorist groups from acquiring nuclear bombs or the materials to build them. At the same time, we must continue to maintain stable strategic relationships with Russia and China and counter threats posed by any emerging nuclear-armed states, thereby protecting the United States and our allies and partners against nuclear threats or intimidation, and reducing any incentives they might have to seek their own nuclear deterrents."  David Sanger writes in the NY Times today that, "rogue states and terrorist organizations are greater threats than traditional powers like Russia and China." The NPR establishes five objectives for operating in the 21^st Century security environment: "1. Preventing nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism; 2. Reducing the role of U.S. nuclear weapons in U.S. national security strategy; 3. Maintaining strategic deterrence and stability at reduced nuclear force levels; 4. Strengthening regional deterrence and reassuring U.S. allies and partners; and 5. Sustaining a safe, secure, and effective nuclear arsenal." [President Obama, 4/6/10. NY Times, 4/6/10. Nuclear Posture Review, 4/6/10] 

The NPR enhances U.S. national security by clarifying and reducing the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. national security strategy and strengthening the global nonproliferation regime. Admiral Mullen unequivocally stated today, that the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review "reaffirms our ability to protect the security interests of the United States."  The NPR states, "The role of nuclear weapons in U.S. national security and U.S. military strategy has been reduced significantly in recent decades, but further steps can and should be taken at this time. The fundamental role of U.S. nuclear weapons, which will continue as long as nuclear weapons exist, is to deter nuclear attack on the United States, our allies, and partners... The role of U.S. nuclear weapons to deter and respond to non-nuclear attacks-conventional, biological, or chemical-has declined significantly. The United States will continue to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in deterring non-nuclear attack. To that end, the United States is now prepared to strengthen its long-standing "negative security assurance" by declaring that the United States will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapons states that are party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and in compliance with their nuclear non-proliferation obligations." By issuing assurances to states that are both signatories to the NPT and in good standing with their nonproliferation obligations, the NPR bolsters the global nonproliferation regime and raises the stakes for states that fail to comply with their international obligations. USA Today explains, "As part of the review, the U.S. pledges not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear nations that are abiding by the global non-proliferation treaty. That pledge should bind most countries more tightly to the goals of the non-proliferation treaty, Obama said, while sending a message to outliers like Iran and North Korea."

The New York Times reports that, "For the first time, the United States is explicitly committing not to use nuclear weapons against nonnuclear states that are in compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, even if they attacked the United States with biological or chemical weapons or launched a crippling cyberattack. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates explained today that such attacks would be met with "a devastating conventional military response." The President also told the New York Times that, ‘I'm going to preserve all the tools that are necessary in order to make sure that the American people are safe and secure,' he said in the interview in the Oval Office."

This document is an important step towards addressing the concerns of the "Four Horseman," George Schultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, who have recognized the national security threat to the United States posed by nuclear weapons and have "called for a global effort to reduce reliance on nuclear weapons." [NY Times, 4/6/10. Department of Defense, 4/6/10. WS Journal, 4/6/10. USA Today, 4/6/10. George Schultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, 6/15/08]

The NPR cements ability of U.S. to maintain a safe, secure, and effective nuclear arsenal-without designing new warheads or conducting nuclear tests.  As Secretary of Defense Robert Gates noted in his opening letter, "The NPR calls for much-needed investments to rebuild America's aging nuclear infrastructure.  To this end, I asked for nearly $5 billion [in new funding] to be transferred from the Department of Defense to the Department of Energy over the next several years.  These investments, and the NPR's strategy for warhead life extension, represent a credible modernization plan necessary to sustain the nuclear infrastructure and support our nation's nuclear deterrent."  The Nuclear Posture Review explicitly states:

On nuclear testing and new warheads: "By pursuing a sound Stockpile Management Program for extending the life of U.S. nuclear weapons, we can ensure a safe, secure, and effective deterrent without the development of new nuclear warheads or further nuclear testing." [Department of Defense, 4/6/10.]

On infrastructure: "By modernizing our aging nuclear facilities and investing in human capital, we can substantially reduce the number of nuclear weapons we retain as a hedge against technical or geopolitical surprise, accelerate dismantlement of retired warheads, and improve our understanding of foreign nuclear weapons activities." [Department of Defense, 4/6/10]

What We're Reading

At least five bombs ripped through apartment buildings across Baghdad and another struck a market, killing 49 people and wounding more than 160.

The Web site WikiLeaks.org released a graphic video showing an American helicopter shooting and killing a Reuters photographer and driver in a July 2007 attack in Baghdad.

In remarks to parliament members last Saturday, Afghan President Hamid Karzai said that if foreign interference in his government continues, the Taliban would become a legitimate resistance -- one that he might even join.

Taliban militants reeling from American and Pakistani attacks launched a sophisticated raid on the heavily guarded U.S. Consulate in Peshawar, Pakistan, killing at least five security personnel in suicide bomb blasts and barrages of grenades and automatic gunfire.

A South Korean navy destroyer caught up with a supertanker hijacked by pirates that was cruising toward the Somali coast with a cargo of crude oil worth as much as $170 million.

More than a dozen retired military officers have been detained in Turkey in the latest stage of an investigation into an alleged 2003 coup plot.

Gordon Brown will take the journey from Downing Street to Buckingham Palace to trigger a May 6 general election to be fought on a Labour manifesto that promises a series of bold initiatives to reform public services in a program of "national renewal."

Brazil delayed slapping import duties on U.S. goods for two weeks after getting a proposal from Washington aimed at settling a long-standing dispute over U.S. cotton subsidies.

Convoys of anti-government protesters coursed through Bangkok while thousands more demonstrators remained in the commercial heart of the city, where they continued to defy government orders to disperse.

The United States believes Nigeria's elections chief should be replaced if the country is to hold credible national polls next year.

Commentary of the Day

Fred Kaplan says Afghan President Hamid Karzai understands that because Western states see Afghan stability as crucial to their own security, he has much more leverage than the simple math might suggest.

Malou Innocent argues that the Iraqi elections don't change the fact that the Iraq war was a huge mistake.

George Friedman writes that it's not yet clear that Mexico is a failed state.

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