9/08/09

The Obama administration set the end of September as a deadline for Iran to accept talks over its nuclear program or face greater sanctions. Iran has yet to give a clear response. President Ahmadinejad, who was officially inaugurated in August despite strong opposition, has recently offered to engage in limited talks with the West but said that Iran would not discuss its nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency also said this week that it is at a “stalemate” with Iran over its nuclear program. Iran’s political turmoil only adds uncertainty, and it is ultimately unclear whether Iran will accept negotiations.

The lessons of the last eight years make it clear that Iran can withstand unilateral US sanctions and maneuvers --only a unified international community can have an effect.  The Obama administration has prudently laid the groundwork for an effective international response no matter what Iran decides. While the Administration has collaborated with the international community to prepare for possible negotiations with the Iranians, it has also built stronger international support for sanctions on Iran if it refuses to negotiate. Engagement remains the best way of forcing a decision from the regime – either move in a new direction offered by the Obama administration or face consequences from a united international community.  

Mixed signals from Iran this week, as President Ahmadinejad offers limited talks, amidst continued instability in the wake of electoral crisis. There was more turmoil and confusion in Iran this week, with the Iranian government and the West continuing to wrangle over the country’s nuclear program, against a backdrop of simmering internal tensions owing to the recent disputed Presidential elections. “Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Monday invited representatives from a group of six world powers, including the United States, to Tehran, but he said negotiations over his country's right to a nuclear program would be off the table,” reported the Washington Post today.  As the Post notes, such talks would be “historic.”  However, Ahmadinejad’s resistance to discuss Iran’s nuclear program – consistent with his previous statements on the subject – show that any negotiations will be difficult.  Ahmadinejad’s statements came just before remarks given by Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Mohamed ElBaradei, who said that his group was in a “‘stalemate’ with Iran over its nuclear program,” according to the New York Times.  ElBaradei urged Iran’s leadership to “‘substantively re-engage’ with the nuclear agency, and to ‘respond positively to the recent U.S. initiative,’” continued the story.  

This latest news unfolded against a backdrop of ongoing internal instability related to Iran’s recent electoral crisis.  After President Ahmadinejad called Iran’s demonstrators “pollutants” on “the gown of the revolution,” a conservative clerical association in Qom rebutted him, urging the President his supporters to “concentrate their minds seriously on economic woes and social challenges and avoid uttering unnecessary and provocative remarks,” according to the Los Angeles Times.  And, in a sign of the anxiety felt by conservatives in the regime, a deputy of the Supreme leader announced plans to purge western material from University curriculums, and authorities have also canceled several Ramadan celebrations for fear of mass protests. [Washington Post, 9/07/09. NY Times, 9/07/09. LA Times, 9/08/09. LA Times, 9/07/09. NY Times, 9/06/09]

September will be critical for determining whether talks between Iran and the West can progress.  “President Obama and his European allies have given Iran until the end of September to respond to an offer of nuclear talks with the ‘five plus one’ group of permanent United Nations Security Council members and Germany,” reported the New York Times.  “‘Clearly, there's been a concerted effort internationally to impose a time frame on Iran so that the nuclear crisis doesn't drag on,’ said Michael Adler, an expert on Iran's nuclear program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars,” reported the Wall Street Journal.   

• The calendar opened last week with an Iran strategy session in Frankfurt among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany.

• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) annual meeting in Vienna began yesterday with ElBaradei’s report “that Iran had not stopped enriching uranium or answered lingering questions about its nuclear program.”

• The diplomacy will then shift to the U.S., where meetings on Iran will be held at the Group of 20 meetings in Pittsburgh and then at the U.N. General Assembly the last week in September.  The U.S. will also serve as chair of the U.N. Security Council. “U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice told reporters on Wednesday that the highlight of the U.S. presidency will be a summit-level Security Council meeting on nuclear non-proliferation. It is scheduled to be held on September 24 and will be chaired by President Obama - the first time a U.S. president has led a Security Council meeting.”

The flurry of activity represents a recognition on the part of the Administration that it cannot wait forever for Iran to reciprocate its outreach, a point articulated by Defense Secretary Robert Gates in July: "[The President] has been quite clear that this is not an open-ended offer to engage. We're very mindful of the possibility that the Iranians would simply try to run out the clock. The president is certainly anticipating or hoping for some kind of a response this fall, perhaps by the time of the U.N. General Assembly." [NY Times, 9/07/09. WSJ, 8/26/09. Susan Rice, VOA, 9/02/09. Secretary of Defense Gates, CNN, 7/27/09]

Alphabet soup of meetings adds up to a ‘concerted diplomatic push’ as Obama has laid the groundwork for a cohesive international approach no matter what Iran decides.  The LA Times writes in an editorial today that, “French President Nicolas Sarkozy may have said it best some years ago when he declared that the only real alternative to ‘an Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran’ was a concerted diplomatic push by world powers to address that country's nuclear program... In the past, U.S. and Iranian desires to negotiate have not coincided, and other American efforts, from unilateral sanctions to unilateral concessions, have failed to clip Iran's ambitions. On the contrary, 15 years ago, Tehran had none of the centrifuges required to make highly enriched uranium, a key ingredient for a nuclear weapon, and now it has about 7,000.”

During the Bush years, divisions between allies and the international community as a whole complicated efforts to mount an international response toward Iran. Today the Obama administration's diplomatic efforts and international disgust at Iran’s internal crackdown have brought all the key players closer to a common outlook on how to address the Iran problem. As the Bush Administration discovered, this is essential to success:  “most Iran experts say they believe a gasoline embargo would be counterproductive if it's backed only by the United States and some European nations. ‘These kind of sanctions, if they are unilateral, only help solidify the regime,’ Abbas [Milani, Director of Iranian Studies at Stanford University] said, by reunifying conservatives around their hostility to Western nations. Unless sanctions are backed by the U.N. Security Council and adhered to by most nations, the Iranians will circumvent the cutoff. However, international sanctions will require much more intensive U.S. diplomatic efforts to win Russian and Chinese backing. The effort is worth making, but it will take more time.”

Allies have already begun discussing the next steps. David Sanger of The New York Times reported last month that “[t]he option of acting against companies around the world that supply Iran with 40 percent of its gasoline has been broached with European allies and Israel, officials from those countries said.”  Our allies have indicated their support for this approach repeatedly over recent weeks:

• French President Nicolas Sarkozy explained the European approach:  “We want to give negotiations every chance... If that works, then great. If that leads nowhere, then that won't be without consequences.” Following a recent meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, President Sarkozy also said, “‘Initiatives must be taken during the month of September which take account of Iran's will or otherwise to cooperate...’ If Iran does not respond, he said, ‘Germany and France will be united in calling for a strengthening of sanctions,’” reports the Washington Post.  

• More recently the foreign minister of Sweden, which currently holds the EU presidency said, "If they are ready to engage with us, we are ready to cooperate with them. If they decide to go for confrontation, then confrontation will happen," according to Reuters.

• Israel has accepted this approach as well:  On Secretary Gates’s trip to the Middle East last month, the New York Times reported that, “[a]fter traveling on to Amman on Monday, Mr. Gates said at a news conference that he had received assurances from the Israelis that as long as there was a time limit on the outreach to Iran, ‘the Israelis were prepared to let it go forward.’” [LA Times, 9/8/09. Philadelphia Inquirer, 8/31/09. G8 Declaration on Responsible Leadership for a Sustainable Future: Political Issues, 7/8/09. The Hill, 7/09/09. Washington Post, 9/1/09. Reuters, 9/4/09. NY Times, 8/2/09. NY Times, 9/27/09]  

What We’re Reading

Debate still swirls around potential troops and resource increases for Afghanistan. Investigations into the bombing of fuel trucks by NATO forces continue. And the UN electoral commissions announced a partial-recount of the presidential election.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approves 455 new settlement units on the West Bank before agreeing to a settlement construction freeze, causing continued American criticism of settlement expansion.

Attacks in Iraq are targeting Iraqi Security Forces, against Iraqi-run checkpoints in particular, as they shoulder the burden of providing security for their country.

Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri had his proposed government rejected, forcing him to consider forming a new government.

Recently released documents show the Bush Administration tried to water down provision in an international treaty against political kidnappings.

The United Kingdom convicted three men related to a terror plot to blow up transatlantic flights.

Oil ties between the UK and Libya continue to increase furor over the release of the Lockerbie bomber as UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown continues to defend his Libya policy.

A severe drought is putting tremendous pressure on Kenya, prompting worries that even African countries with extensive development are not immune to drought and related disasters.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon reshuffled his cabinet by replacing his attorney general, while Mexican authorities made arrests in the murder of a political candidate for office.

Chinese authorities change the leadership of the western province of Xinjiang, as ethnic unrest continues.

Taiwanese Prime Minister Liu Chao-shiuan quits over his governments preparedness and response to the recent typhoon that hit the island.

Commentary of the Day

Former President Jimmy Carter offers his support for freezing Israeli settlement construction in the West Bank.

Thomas Friedman and Anne Applebaum implore the Obama Administration to offer more details in explaining the possible policy changes in Afghanistan resulting from General McChrystal’s strategy review. Nicholas Kristof thinks a smaller US presence is inevitability.
 
Gideon Rachman explains the paradox of trying to create an energy policy that can satisfy all constituents.