7/6/09

President Obama met today with Russian President Dimitri Medvedev in what was a highly anticipated summit, as the United States sought to steer U.S.-Russian relations back to a more productive focus on areas of mutual concern and interest. The summit produced two substantial achievements: commitment to a new START Treaty cutting both sides’ nuclear arsenals, and Russian commitment to allow the US to ship weapons and materiel into Afghanistan via Russia. This summit stands in stark contrast to one held eight years ago in Slovenia, where another American president in his first year in office infamously talked of looking into President Vladimir Putin’s soul. That meeting laid the foundation for the Bush administration’s superficial approach toward Russia that focused on maintaining the personal “friendship” that they believed was established at the 2001 summit. This policy eventually gave way to a harder line approach that also failed on almost all fronts. As a result, when Bush left office: Russia had become less free and could no longer be considered democratic, the two countries failed to work together on important international issues, and diplomatic relations deteriorated so much that many feared a new Cold War. In stark contrast to the Bush administration, Obama has sought to reset the relationship and focus on common challenges, such as nuclear proliferation, supply routes to Afghanistan, North Korea, and Iran. Obama also sought to break away from the cycle of silence and loud but ineffective protest that marked the Bush administration’s response as President Putin consolidated power and cracked down human rights. Obama spoke out forcefully on these issues prior to his trip and has scheduled a day of meetings with civil society figures in Russia. This careful balance lays the groundwork for a more business-like relationship that focuses on issues of mutual interest and concern – not on becoming soul mates.

Obama and Medvedev sign agreement advancing efforts to reduce nuclear stockpiles and reduce the threat of nuclear proliferation. Reuters reports: “The United States and Russia agreed on Monday an aim of cutting deployed nuclear warheads to 1,500-1,675 within seven years of a new arms reduction agreement coming into force.” AFP continued: “The declaration signed by the presidents pledged to reach a new nuclear arms reduction pact to replace the 1991 START accord, the White House said. ‘The presidents signed a Joint Understanding for a follow-on agreement to START that commits both parties to a legally binding treaty that will reduce nuclear weapons,’ the White House said in a statement. The declaration also called for a reduction in the number of nuclear warheads in Russian and US strategic arsenals to between 1,500 and 1,675 within seven years. ‘Each side will reduce its strategic offensive weapons in such a way that within seven years the maximum numbers of carriers would lie in the range of 500-1,100 and for the warheads within the range of 1,500-1,675,’ the declaration said.” In addition to the START follow-on, the summit also resulted in a joint statement on nuclear security, recommitting both countries to “curb nuclear proliferation and prevent acts of nuclear terrorism,” said a White House statement. According to the Associated Press, “Both sides appear to want to use progress on arms control as a pathway to possible agreement on trickier issues, including Iran and Georgia.” [Reuters, 7/06/09. AFP, 7/06/09. White House, 7/06/09. AP, 7/06/09]

Continuing his effort to reset the relationship with Russia by focusing on issues of mutual interest and concern, Obama signs agreement on Afghanistan and gains Russian backing on North Korea. Center for American Progress Fellow Samuel Charap observes, “Russia can play a major role on a wide range of foreign policy challenges facing the United States.” The Obama administration scored achievements on several fronts, with Russian President Medvedev calling the summit “the meeting we have been waiting for.” After months of Russian attempts to use Afghanistan as a bargaining chip, Russia relented and agreed to allow American troops and weapons bound for Afghanistan to fly over Russian territory,” which “will provide a new corridor for the United States military as it steps up its efforts in Afghanistan.” The Obama administration has also worked diplomatically with Russia to get them on board to strengthen the international response to North Korea’s belligerence. The New York Times reported: “Responding vigorously to a recent North Korean nuclear test, the Security Council voted unanimously Friday on an enhanced package of sanctions that, among other things, calls upon United Nations members to inspect cargo vessels and airplanes suspected of carrying military materiel in or out of the country. The sanctions in Resolution 1874 were considered tougher than previous versions largely because China and Russia, the closest thing North Korea has to friends, agreed to a mixture of financial and trade restrictions designed to choke off military development.” In addition to these diplomatic efforts, the Obama administration, in order to address the broader range of issues affecting U.S. – Russia relations, announced at the summit the creation of a bilateral Presidential Commission to “to provide better structure to the bilateral relationship,” according to a White House statement. Nevertheless, prospects for further thawing appear uncertain. A new survey of Russian Public Opinion by the Levada Center “finds that just 23 percent of Russians have confidence in Obama to do the right thing in international affairs, while 55 percent say they do not have confidence,” according to WorldPublicOpinion.org. [Center for American Progress, 5/20/09. BBC, 7/06/09. AFP, 6/29/09. NY Times, 6/26/09. NY Times, 6/12/09. White House, 7/06/09. WorldPublicOpinion.org, 7/05/09]

Obama administration uses summit in Moscow to press Russia on democracy and human rights. The President has attempted to balance public expressions of pragmatic partnership with Russia with lower-profile outreach to Russian civil society and human rights groups. The New York Times reports that “Mr. Obama is sending top advisers to a memorial service to be held in Moscow on Tuesday for the fifth anniversary of Mr. Klebnikov’s death, and offered a show of support for Ms. Politkovskaya’s colleagues by answering written questions posed by her newspaper, Novaya Gazeta.” In written answers to questions from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin, Novaya Gazeta, Obama stated that his attempts to “restart” the U.S. – Russia relationship would not mean weaker attention to civil rights and liberties. The President elaborated: “As I said in my inaugural address: ‘To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history, but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.’ I then emphasized in my Cairo speech that ‘I do have an unyielding belief that all people yearn for certain things: the ability to speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed; confidence in the rule of law and the equal administration of justice; government that is transparent and doesn't steal from the people; the freedom to live as you choose. These are not just American ideas; they are human rights.’ These are ideas embraced by your president and your people. I agree with President Medvedev when he said that ‘Freedom is better than the absence of freedom.’ So, I see no reason why we cannot aspire together to strengthen democracy, human rights, and the rule of law as part of our ‘reset.’” The President also used the interview to call attention to the Russian government’s plans to retry two of its political opponents, Mikhail Khodorkovskiy and Platon Lebedev, on corruption charges, saying “it does seem odd to me that these new charges, which appear to be a repackaging of the old charges, should be surfacing now, years after these two individuals have been in prison and as they become eligible for parole.” Obama also “called on President Dmitri A. Medvedev to follow through on his promise ‘to strengthen the rule of law in Russia, which of course includes making sure that all those accused of crimes have the right to a fair trial and that the courts are not used for political purposes,’” according to the New York Times. These public statements followed recent signs from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev of a willingness to engage with human rights advocates, including holding his first interview with Novaya Gazeta. Still, substantive follow-up will be necessary in order to address the human rights concerns that the U.S. has raised. [NY Times, 7/06/09. President Obama interview with Novaya Gazeta, 7/06/09. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, 4/13/09]

Bush administration allowed relations with Russia to deteriorate. Going into the Moscow Summit, the Obama administration is still feeling the effects of the Bush administration’s incoherent Russia policy. President Bush based his approach to Russia on his personal relationship with Putin. In 2001, when President Bush and Vladimir Putin met for the first time, Bush infamously declared, “I looked the man in the eye. I was able to get a sense of his soul.” While the Bush administration viewed the close personal relationship as signaling a new alliance and common understanding with Russia, Putin used the personal relationship to insulate himself from American criticism as he consolidated his power, undermined democratic institutions, and suppressed civil liberties. The Washington Post explained last August that “More than many of his predecessors, President Bush has invested heavily in trying to forge a strong bond with key foreign leaders. But as his term winds down, new crises in Georgia and Pakistan are underscoring the limits of Bush's personal diplomacy, as the president is receiving criticism for overpersonalizing relations with Putin, the Russian prime minister, and with Pervez Musharraf, who resigned as Pakistan's president last week…Leslie H. Gelb, former president of the Council on Foreign Relations, said Bush is more naive about personal relations with other leaders than past U.S. presidents, alluding to his meeting with Putin in 2001…The others were far more realistic,’ Gelb said. ‘This Bush thinks when he calls Putin, they are soul mates, and when he expresses a desire for Putin to do something, he will do it. [Putin] had other reasons for going into Georgia than the personal relations with the president of the United States.’” Furthermore, having misread the relationship, the Bush administration withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic missile treaty and pushed for NATO expansion without having reached a broader understanding with Russia. This not only soured the relationship with Russia but undermined NATO expansion efforts and led to fears of a new Cold War. [BBC, 12/13/01. NY Times, 3/15/08. Washington Post, 8/27/08. Vice-President Cheney, 5/4/06. NY Times, 8/10/08. NSN Russia Policy Paper]

What We’re Reading

Turmoil continues to harden in Iran, as a group of clerics denounce the elections as fraudulent, while opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi presents the most detailed evidence yet of electoral fraud, while announcing the creation of a new political party. A hard-line newspaper calls for charges of treason to be put forth on Mousavi. Obama Administration officials continue to insist engagement will be the US policy towards Iran.

Former Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara died.

Serious unrest between Muslim Uighurs and ethnic Han Chinese in Western China kills over 140 and injures hundreds more.

Candidates for the Presidency in Afghanistan face severe obstacles to effective campaigning; US troops attempt to mediate between wary Afghan and Pakistani troops at their shared national border. Pakistan also suffers from the first direct attack on its nuclear weapons infrastructure, with nuclear workers deliberately targeted.

Both Iraqis and American troops and policymakers try to assume their new roles following the withdrawal of US troops from Iraqi cities.

The Pentagon explains its optimism on fielding an effective missile defense system.

The US and OAS try to deal with the coup in Honduras while deposed President Manuel Zelaya is still unable to return to his country.

Mexico’s ruling party is expected to lose ground in the upcoming national elections.

North Korea continues to defy UN Security Council resolutions by launching several missiles.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon visits the police state of Myanmar, but is unable to meet with opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

Indonesia prepares for its upcoming president elections, where incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is expected to win reelection.

Extreme volatility that has gripped oil markets for the last 18 months causes panic among financial watchers and uncertainty at the pump.

Commentary of the Day

The LA Times argues that a free-trade agreement with Columbia is an appropriate gesture to acknowledge improving human rights in that country.

Andrew J. Bacevich says Obama should rise above tactics to review his strategy for the Long War.

Lt. Gen. Trey Obering and Eric Edelman defend the missile defense program, saying that the US and Russia should work together against a possible Iranian threat.

Edward Schmacher-Matos helps untangle the crisis in Honduras by explaining the contradictions of a “coup to save democracy.”