6/29/09

The scheduled withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Iraqi cities on Tuesday is a momentous signal of Iraqis’ willingness to step up and Americans’ willingness to step back – and the beginning of the realization of a plan that progressives promoted for years and President Obama carried with him to the White House. The process of negotiating a Status of Forces Agreement and timetable with the Iraqi government, then strengthening joint patrols and jointly planning the withdrawal itself has done something that the prior six years of war did not – show clearly that it is Iraqis, not Americans, who are in charge of the country’s future. The Iraq war has been a strategic disaster that has strengthened Iran, damaged America’s global standing, drained our resources and been an albatross around the neck of US diplomacy. Nearly six and half years after the initial invasion, more than 4,300 American servicemen and women and tens, probably hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have died. If there are benefits to be drawn from the war now, they will come in the way that the US withdraws – steadily, and on pace with the negotiated Status of Forces Agreement – and how the US builds a partnership going forward. As recent bombings indicate, there will never be a perfect moment to withdraw 130,000 troops from what is still a volatile situation. But U.S. forces have done all they can and the Iraqi people want us out. It is past time that Iraqis take control of their security and their future, which can only occur if the crutch of U.S. involvement is removed, allowing Iraqi forces to fully stand on their own. The top US commander in Iraq, General Odierno, has also said that violence is at low levels and that he has been given the flexibility to appropriately manage the withdrawal, which he says is well on schedule. The withdrawal from Iraqi cities will not end U.S. involvement in Iraq – U.S. forces will continue to operate with Iraqis at their request and will continue to train and advise Iraqi forces. However, it does signal that the United States is committed to redeploying its forces and supporting the Iraqis in this period of transition.

U.S. troops leave Iraqi cities ahead of schedule, as Obama follows through on vow to end the war responsibly. American involvement in Iraq has lasted nearly 6 and half years and has cost the United States tremendously in lives, resources, and its standing in the world. Since the initial invasion 4,313 US servicemen and women have died in combat. Iraqi civilians have suffered greatly, with fatalities estimated around 100,000. Moreover, the financial burden of the war has ballooned to over $682 billion and American’s international standing dipped to new lows. Progressives have long argued that the U.S. needed to responsibly withdraw its forces and President Obama in February affirmed his campaign commitment to end the war by announcing his withdrawal plan at Camp Lejeune. He said “Through this period of transition, we will carry out further redeployments. And under the Status of Forces Agreement with the Iraqi government, I intend to remove all U.S. troops from Iraq by the end of 2011. We will complete this transition to Iraqi responsibility, and we will bring our troops home with the honor that they have earned.” What we see now is the follow through on that pledge, as U.S. forces have met their commitments in the Status of Forces Agreement to withdraw from Iraqi cities by July 1st 2009. This weekend in an interview with CNN’s John King, General Odierno, the top commander in Iraq, was asked if troop withdrawal was still on schedule. He replied “John, actually, we're at 131,000 today, have been now for about a month. We'll continue to draw down slowly and deliberately over this year. What's good is I've been given the flexibility to make those decisions based on the security environment on the ground. I believe we'll continue to slowly and deliberately withdraw our forces this year, but have enough forces here to ensure that we have successful parliamentary elections next January.” [I Casualties, 6/29/09. Iraqi Body Count, 6/29/09. Cost of War, 6/29/09. Barack Obama, 2/27/09. CNN, 11/14/07. CNN, 6/28/09]

Although violence continues in Iraq, the US military, Iraq’s leaders and Iraqi citizens agree that U.S. forces have done all they can do. The situation in Iraq remains volatile, with continued violence, sectarian tension and clashes, and setbacks in political reconciliation. However, U.S. forces have done what they can do and Iraqis are ready to take over. “Gen. Ray Odierno, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, said on Sunday that U.S. forces are already out of the cities in Iraq, ahead of the deadline. ‘It is time for them to take responsibility inside the cities,’ Odierno said on Fox News Sunday about the Iraqis.” The General, in an interview with CNN’s John King, went on to say “I do believe they're ready, John. They've been working towards this for a long time. And security remains good. We've seen constant improvement in the security force, we've seen constant improvement in governance.” The Iraqi government has been clear, even triumphant, in its support for the withdrawal now. The Guardian reports that, “[t]he Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, fuelled US anger at the weekend by describing the withdrawal as the result of Iraq's successful bid to ‘repulse’ the invaders. ‘We are on the threshold of a new phase that will bolster Iraq's sovereignty. It is a message to the world that we are now able to safeguard our security and administer our own affairs,’ Maliki said in an interview with the French newspaper Le Monde.” Maliki has even declared the withdrawal date a national holiday. As the Washington Post writes, “[h]e [Maliki] has declared June 30 a national holiday, telling a national television audience Saturday that the U.S. departure will ‘bolster Iraq's security’ and show the world that Iraqis can manage their own affairs.” The Washington Post goes on to describe the feelings among average Iraqis, “[m]any Iraqis are also eager for the U.S. occupation to end, although more than 130,000 American troops remain in the country. ‘It is good to see the departure of American troops as the first phase of ending the foreign occupation of our country,’ said Ibrahim Ali, 26, a teacher from Kut. ‘Our troops are able to protect Iraqi cities, but they need more training and naval and air support.’” [CNN, 6/26/09. USA Today, 6/29/09. CNN, 6/28/09. The Guardian, 6/28/09. Washington Post, 6/28/09]

The relationship between US and Iraqi troops will change after June 30th – finally pushing Iraqi forces to stand up as U.S. forces stand down. As US troops complete their withdrawal from Iraqi cities, they will take on a new mission as trainers and as backup force protection for Iraqi troops. Stars and Stripes, the official newspaper of the US armed forces, describes the new role US troops will assume. “They will protect the bases, helicopter landing pads and military hospitals that continue to serve thousands of U.S. service members. They’ll train Iraqi security forces, a mission that has been under way almost as long as the war itself. They’ll oversee projects to build roads, pick up trash and resurrect utilities left demolished or neglected since March 2003.” The NY Times elaborates: “For the most part, it really will be happening, and many Iraqi troops will indeed be on their own by Wednesday. Except, that is, for their embedded trainers and advisers, who will be fairly numerous — at least 10,000 now, according to military estimates, rising to 35,000 to 50,000 by the high point, according to a Congressional Research Service report last month. In addition, each team will need force protection — that is, other American troops to guard the trainers, mostly from Iraqis they’re teamed with. They will number from 10 to 20 per team of trainers.” Other American troops will “withdraw from the cities, as the bulk of the troops already have” and “will relocate in huge forward operating bases, or F.O.B.’s, like this one, an old Iraqi airfield in the middle of the Western Desert... American troop strength will remain at roughly 130,000 until next September, most of them living as ‘Fobbits’, in G.I. slang. The Iraqis will be able to call on the Fobbits if they get in trouble, but there will be serious political and public relations pressure to make sure that doesn’t happen too much.” In addition to a changing military role and relocation of US troops, the US will be making initial moves to make the transition more politically palatable for the Iraqis. “The Americans even acquiesced to requests to suspend virtually all American operations — even in support roles — for the first few days of July to reinforce the perception that Mr. Maliki desires: that Iraqi security forces are now fully in control of Iraq’s cities.” [Star and Stripes, 6/29/09. NY Times, 6/28/09. NY Times, 6/25/09]

What We’re Reading

American troops make final preparations to withdraw from Iraqi cities by the June 30th deadline as Iraqis worry over the readiness and professionalism of Iraqi security forces . Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki calls the US withdrawal a “great victory” for the Iraqi people, while Gen. Ray Odierno, Commander of US troops in Iraq, believes Iraqi Security Forces are ready to take the lead from US troops. Concerns also mount over corruption within Iraq’s judicial system.

The Pakistani Army continues its initial push into South Waziristan against Taliban and Al-Qaeda havens along the Afghan-Pakistan border, as internally-displaced Pakistanis begin to go back and rebuild their damaged homes following the offensives to reclaim the Swat Valley and Burner district.

An initial recount begins in Iran as protesters defy warnings and continue to gather in the streets. The intense crackdown coupled with opposition protesters’ desires for fairness and transparency put opposition Candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi in a difficult political position. Tensions between Iran and the United Kingdom continue to escalate, as Iranian employees of the UK embassy were arrested.

The Justice Department begins to put together some rules changing the way military commissions would operate, sparking new debate about detainee rights.

The military in Honduras removed President Manuel Zelaya following a dispute over a referendum to the constitution. The Honduran military’s moves lead to a rare display of unity amongst countries in the Americas as national leaders across the political spectrum offer a message of condemnation against the removal of a democratically-elected leader.

The ruling party in Argentina suffers an electoral setback in the national legislature as the ex-President of the country and leader of the party concedes defeat.

Columbian President Alvaro Uribe faces new concerns over human rights and democracy at home as he visits to President Obama today.

Israel signals a shift in their position regarding settlements as negotiations in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continue. A U.N. fact-finding commission faces a skeptical audience in Gaza.

Albanians go to the polls as experts view this election as a prerequisite for the possible induction of Albania into the European Union.

Newly appointed Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri beings the task of trying to govern with Hezbollah as his opposition party.

NATO restores ties with Russia following the Russian-Georgian War of last summer.

Commentary of the Day

Fareed Zakaria explains why the Velvet Revolution is a bad historical example to help explain the unfolding drama in Iran.

Benjamin Wittes and Jack Goldsmith discuss why Obama should work with Congress and not bypass them when it comes to developing and implementing a new detainee policy.

Eric J. Williams discusses why Small Town USA would roll out the welcome mat to Guantanamo Detainees.

Kofi Annan explains why the upcoming African Union conference on the International Criminal Court is an excellent opportunity to fight the lingering notion of national sovereignty as a source of impunity from charges of crimes against humanity.