6/03/09

President Obama arrived in Saudi Arabia today against the backdrop of a month straight of rising gas prices. While the economic crisis has pushed oil prices down far below what they were last year, the volatility of energy supplies and the likely increases in demand for energy from the developing world makes decreasing America’s dependence on fossil fuels a top priority. Maintaining the positive relationship with Saudi Arabia is vital to the U.S. national interests in near term – especially as the summer “driving season” sets in – but the priority over the long term must be to reduce America’s dependence on fossil fuels. Our dependence on fossil fuels limits our options on the international stage, too often empowers authoritarian leaders, and is one of the key contributors to climate change. The potential for resource scarcity, catastrophic storms, major weather disturbances, and rising sea-levels has pushed the challenge of climate change to the top of the national security agenda. A new report from the Center for Naval Analyses  argues that climate change represents a “serious and urgent threat to national security.” With a legacy Bush administration inaction, despite rhetoric in one State of the Union address after another on energy and climate issues, the Obama administration and the Congress must now take bold action. Enacting cap and trade legislation, investing in renewable energy technology, and taking a leadership role on the global stage are not simply important steps – they are vital steps for America’s national security.

As oil prices rise again, Obama visits Saudi Arabia and discusses energy security. The Financial Times reports, “President Barack Obama arrived in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday at the start of a historic visit to the region... The US president will hold talks with King Abdullah, a key US ally, before flying to Egypt on Thursday where he will deliver his much-anticipated speech.”  One of the main topics of discussion for the two leaders is energy. The Wall Street Journal writes, “The two leaders will be jawboning about oil, among many other things. Specifically, President Obama indicated he’ll press Saudi Arabia to provide stability in oil prices. Or even bring them back down—White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said ‘reining in’ oil prices would be a likely topic of discussion.”  FT elaborates on the important role Saudi Arabia plays in energy security: “The stop in Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer and home to Islam’s two holiest sites, was a last minute addition to the trip, his first to the Middle East since becoming president, which analysts said was an acknowledgement of the kingdom’s role in regional politics and international energy markets.” This visit comes against the back drop of a surge in energy prices and an increase in demand as the summer travel season begins.  CNN reports “Crude prices have doubled since the end of 2008, and as oil prices have surged, so have gas prices. For consumers, the silver lining to the recession was cheap gas. But for the past 34 consecutive days, the pain at the pump has increased. The national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline increased to $2.512, up 1 cent from the previous day's price of $2.502, according to according to motorist group AAA. In the last 34 days the average price of gas has increased 46.4 cents, or 22.6%.” [Financial Times, 6/3/09. CNN, 6/01/09. WS Journal, 6/2/09]

Energy security is national security.  The Center for Naval Analyses in a new report from their Military Advisory Board, which is made up of retired Generals and Admirals, writes that: “In our view, America’s energy posture constitutes a serious and urgent threat to national security—militarily, diplomatically, and economically. This vulnerability is exploitable by those who wish to do us harm.” The report identifies three security risks from America’s dependence on foreign oil: “U.S. dependence on oil weakens international leverage, undermines foreign policy objectives, and entangles America with unstable or hostile regimes; Inefficient use and overreliance on oil burdens the military, undermines combat effectiveness, and exacts a huge price tag—in dollars and lives;  U.S. dependence on fossil fuels undermines economic stability, which is critical to national security; A fragile domestic electricity grid makes our domestic military installations, and their critical infrastructure, unnecessarily vulnerable to incident, whether deliberate or accidental.” Climate change itself raises serious security concerns for the United States.  A 2007 CSIS and CNAS report says that, “According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, tropical cyclones will become increasingly intense in the coming decades, and this will force the resettlement of people from coastal areas in the United States. This can have significant economic and political consequences, as was the case with the evacuation and permanent relocation of many Gulf Coast residents in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. The United States will also experience border stress due to the severe effects of climate change in parts of Mexico and the Caribbean. Northern Mexico will be subject to severe water shortages, which will drive immigration into the United States in spite of the increasingly treacherous border terrain. Likewise, the damage caused by storms and rising sea levels in the coastal areas of the Caribbean islands—where 60 percent of the Caribbean population lives—will increase the flow of immigrants.” Obama’s visit to Saudi Arabia and the energy-related talks come as the hurricane season approaches with greater uncertainty.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says that “Global weather patterns are imposing a greater uncertainty in the 2009 hurricane season outlook than in recent years. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of having nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5).” [CNA, 5/09. CSIS & CNAS, 11/07. NOAA, 5/21/09]

U.S. must make concerted effort to tackle twin challenges of energy and climate change. The U.S. will have to act on multiple fronts to address climate change and enhance America’s energy security:  investing in new energy technology, improving efficiency standards such as fuel economy, enacting a national plan to cut greenhouse gases and, with those signs of our own commitment, helping forge a post-Kyoto global consensus on next steps to fight climate change.  The President’s stimulus package included billions of dollars for investment in renewable or efficient energy technologies, including “$11 billion for “smart grid” investments,” high speed rail initiatives, and “$2 billion for research into batteries for electric cars,” according to the New York Times.  The Administration also announced that U.S. fuel economy standards would rise to 35.5 miles per gallon by 2016.  Time Magazine described the decision’s implications: “Not only could the move potentially kick-start the sputtering U.S. auto industry, while saving the equivalent of some 1.8 billion barrels of oil, it also raises hopes that the Obama Administration will be able to forge a compromise on the tricky matter of a national cap on greenhouse-gas emissions.”  The next critical step will be the passage of the Waxman-Markey bill to enact a national climate change strategy, currently making its way through House subcommittees.  The bill would “cut industry's greenhouse gas emissions 17 percent by 2020,” reported Reuters According to the New York Times, “Sources on and off Capitol Hill say the Obama administration has quietly been encouraging House action before the July 4 recess in order to focus attention on a bill that last month cleared the Energy and Commerce Committee on a 33-25 vote.”  U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu spoke to the importance of the bill, saying that “[t]he Waxman-Markey bill is our best shot of anything I've seen in recent legislative pasts where Congress might get something (passed) and it's got a lot support in the industry now.” While stiff challenges remain, especially to the legislation working its way through Congress, the U.S. must continue to push on both fronts if it is to convince the international audience in Copenhagen this December that it is serious about meeting the problem of climate change head-on. [Reuters, 6/02/09. NY Times, 6/02/09. Energy Secretary Steven Chu, 6/02/09. NY Times, 2/17/09. Time, 5/19/09]

What We’re Reading

President Obama arrived in Saudi Arabia, the first stop on his overseas trip.

Osama bin Laden purportedly released a new audio message criticizing the Obama administration’s policies in Pakistan.

A U.S. report found errors in the May 4 airstrikes that killed dozens of Afghan civilians.  Two roadside bombs killed 10 security guards in Afghanistan.

Amid the expenses scandal, another minister quit Gordon Brown’s cabinet.

Security tightens in China ahead of the 20th anniversary of Tiananmen Square tomorrow.

Former Vice President Dick Cheney allegedly oversaw four 2005 briefings of Congressmen defending the detainee interrogation program.

In a new poll, 50% of Americans said that torture is sometimes justified and were split on closing Guantanamo.  However 70% said they trusted President Obama on issues of terrorism.

The U.S. accidently released a confidential report with details of civilian nuclear facilities.

The summit of the Organization of American states failed to reach an agreement on re-admitting Cuba.

The U.K. believes that a British hostage in Mali has been killed by Al Qaeda.  Uncertainty clouds a British report of the death of a senior Taliban leader in Afghanistan.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel strongly criticized the concept of central banks and argued that the European, U.S. and British central banks may have gone too far in fighting the financial crisis and laid the groundwork for another one.

Commentary of the Day

Tom Friedman interviewed President Obama about his Middle East trip.

The LA Times thinks it’s time that Cuba rejoins the OAS, but neither Cuba nor the U.S. support the move.

Minxin Pei looks at how Beijing solidified its political power following Tiananmen Square.

Robert Satloff argues that President Obama needs a “big idea” in the Middle East and a country-by-country approach.