5/20/09

Progressives’ disadvantage on national security issues has been a cliché of American political life for a generation. But new polling on national security now shows that the political gap on national security has been eliminated, with conservatives holding no advantage over progressives. The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner analysis indicates that progressives have finally shed the political albatross on national security issues that stemmed from the turbulent legacy of Vietnam. GQR points to three elements of the shift:  public disgust with the conservative record; strong public support for Obama’s initial performance and elucidation of his national security agenda; and a generational shift among younger voters.  The onus rests on progressives to flesh out public understanding and maintain support for progressive policies, particularly among younger voters who are likely setting preferences for life.  But it is also clear that now conservatives have their own national security albatross – the failed legacy of the Bush administration – which could undercut the conservative agenda for a long time to come, just as Vietnam did for progressives. The poll’s finding that conservative critiques of Administration policies have achieved little or no traction outside the Beltway reflects the extent to which the movement seems increasingly adrift – offering no substantive alternative policy ideas on foreign policy or national security. On issues such as Iraq and Afghanistan, conservatives have reversed themselves and supported President Obama, but on others they have chosen to make extreme arguments that are only further undermining their credibility with the public.  Notably, the public rejects the idea that progressive policies are making the country less safe.  

The public opinion gap on national security between Democrats and Republicans has closed, with a dramatic shift among younger voters that may have long-term implications.  “A new Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey shows that after 100 days in office, President Barack Obama has, at least for now effectively erased doubts that Americans have historically harbored about the Democratic Party’s vision and competence on national security. For the first time in our research, Democrats are at full parity on perceptions of which party would best manage national security, while they have moved far ahead of the GOP on specific challenges such as Afghanistan, Iraq, working with our allies, and improving America’s image abroad.” Greenberg Quinlan Rosner goes on, “For the first time in our polling, the public sees the Democratic and Republican parties as statistically tied on both ‘national security’ (41 percent trust Democrats more, 43 percent trust Republicans more) and ‘the war on terrorism’ (41 to 41 percent).” The extent of the shift away from conservatives to progressives among younger voters – voters under age 30 – has also been dramatic. Younger voters “trusted Republicans more on national security by a 27 point margin in 2003; now they trust Democrats more by 18 points, 50 to 32 percent. This strong margin of trust among younger voters could signal the start of a lasting generational shift on this set of issues.” [Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, 5/19/09]

After eight years of failure, conservatives – and conservative attacks -- have no credibility on foreign policy.  According to the poll, “Given their approval of the new President’s performance on foreign affairs, voters flatly reject the claim Dick Cheney and other Republicans have leveled that Obama’s policies have increased security risks for the American people. By a 55 to 37 percent margin, likely voters agree that, “Obama’s foreign and national security policies are increasing America’s security.” These findings echo other recent polls by CNN, which found that, “Americans don't agree with former Vice President Dick Cheney's recent assertion that President Barack Obama's actions have increased the chances of a terrorist attack against the United States... Seventy-two percent of those questioned in the poll released Monday disagree with Cheney's view that some of Obama's actions have put the country at greater risk, with 26 percent agreeing with the former vice president.”  Earlier this month on Face the Nation, Dick Cheney said, “in effect, what we’ve seen happen with respect to the Obama administration as they came to power is they have moved to take down a lot of those policies we put in place that kept the nation safe for nearly eight years from a follow-on terrorist attack like 9/11.” And when asked if the Obama administration has left America more vulnerable to attack, Cheney said, “That’s my belief.” Mitt Romney has made similarly outlandish comments saying, “It’s the very kind of thinking that left America vulnerable to the attacks of September 11th... And the approval of left-wing law professors and editorial boards won’t be worth much if this country lets down its guard and suffers an attack.” And on detainee policy, conservatives like former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, moved into the realm of hysterics, saying on closing Guantanamo that “the idea we're going to put alleged terrorists on welfare and have you pay for them and me pay for them, so they get to be integrated into American society.” These demonstrably false claims – placing detainees in supermax prisons is not integrating them into American society – appear to be reminding the public of the record of rhetorical overkill and substantive underperformance that demolished conservative credibility in the first place. [Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, 5/19/09. CNN, 4/13/09. CBS Face the Nation, 5/10/09. Boston Globe, 5/15/09]

Poll results indicate overwhelming public support for Obama’s national security agenda. Results from the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (GQR) poll show that across the board, Obama has inspired confidence in his national security agenda.  Whereas during the campaign, questions lingered about Obama’s ability to handle foreign policy and national security affairs,  “[n]ow, after 100 days in office, President Barack Obama’s management of a broad range of security challenges has effectively erased those doubts.”  The GQR poll found that “[t]he shift in voters’ perceptions reflects a strong, broad endorsement of President Obama’s management of national security during his first three months in office. Nearly two thirds of likely voters – 64 percent – approve of the job the president is doing on national security. That is 6 points higher than his already strong overall job approval rating (at 58 percent, unchanged from last month, and the highest we have seen), and 4 points higher than his approval on the economy, historically the stronger policy area for Democrats.”  According to the poll, 68% of Americans support President Obama’s steps to increase America’s standing.  And on issues including Iraq, Afghanistan, international diplomacy and military affairs, 65% of Americans or more approve of Obama’s approach.  “Continued public support will no doubt depend above all on results – the success of the new administration’s security policies on the ground. But the public’s overall reaction to Obama’s early stewardship of national security is impressively strong, and could be an early indicator of lasting and consequential shifts in national opinion.” [GQR, 5/19/09]

What We’re Reading

Colin Powell struck back at his conservative critics, saying "Rush Limbaugh says, 'Get out of the Republican Party.' Dick Cheney says, 'He's already out.' I may be out of their version of the Republican Party, but there's another version of the Republican Party waiting to emerge once again."

Iran says that it test-fired a new long-range missile capable of striking Israel.

Arms given to Afghan forces by the U.S. may be falling into the hands of the Taliban.  The U.S. rejected the Afghan government’s account of the civilian death toll from recent airstrikes.  A report prepared for USAID says that corruption among Afghan officials is “pervasive” and “entrenched.”

The U.S. will provide $110 million in emergency aid to Pakistani civilians displaced by fighting in Swat valley.  An urban battle looms for the Pakistani Army in the continuing fighting in Swat.

Myanmar will allow diplomats and the press to attend the trial of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Japan’s economy fell by a record 4% in the first quarter of 2009.

Senate Democrats will re-consider the funds for closing Guantanamo when President Obama puts forth a plan for the detainees.

The U.N. will proceed in an inquiry into possible war crimes committed in the Gaza war, even if Israel will not co-operate.

India’s Congress Party is ready to form a coalition government.

Lower oil prices force the Iraqi security forces to cut payroll and delay key purchases at a crucial time.

Spanish legislators urge curbing the power of the Spanish courts to pursue cases against people accused of committing war crimes in other countries.

Commentary of the Day

Former U.S. ambassador to the Soviet Union Stephen Sestanovich says that President Obama is hobbled on Russia policy by Cold War thinking entrenched in the Jackson-Vanik amendment.

Former UN official Francesco Bastagli explains the “real reason Iran wants nukes.”

Tony Karon asks if President Obama can “change the game” in the Middle East.

Rick Amato laments in the Washington Times that “Despite the extraordinarily high price they have paid, America's severely wounded veterans are enduring humiliating financial hardships of epic proportions.”