5/19/09

The Congress Party’s overwhelming victory in India’s recent elections was a surprising outcome after a turbulent year in which India experienced the Mumbai terrorist attack, the fallout of the global economic crisis, and instability in its nuclear rival Pakistan. The completion of another successful election in India, the world’s largest democracy, demonstrates that democracy can flourish in incredibly ethnically, religiously, and culturally diverse societies – and amid intense economic and security concerns. With the world’s second largest Muslim population, India’s successful democratic process discredits the arguments that Islam and democracy are somehow incompatible. The decisive victory by the incumbent moderate Congress Party over the more Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) puts Congress in a strong position to continue the policies that have helped India achieve tremendous economic growth, reached out to play an important role in Afghanistan and cooled tensions with rival Pakistan. This result also bodes well for a stronger U.S-India relationship, as the ruling party had in the past few years made the decision to deepen its strategic ties with the United States – a decision that was reaffirmed at the polls.  India will play a critical and increasing role in U.S. foreign policy because of its growing economic clout, proximity to and involvement in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and central role in dealing with climate change.

In critical election, India’s moderate Congress party wins reelection. The Christian Science Monitor writes, “The Congress Party, along with its partners in the United Progressive Alliance, defied expectations and won enough seats in Parliament to rule with confidence for five years. Its victory – a big comeback for India's founding party – was a defeat for the left and the fundamentalist Hindu party.”  NPR expands, saying, “Defying almost all predictions of a tight national election, a hung parliament and weeks of political horse-trading, hundreds of millions of Indian voters have given the incumbent prime minister, Manmohan Singh, and his centrist United Progressive Alliance an unexpected and surprisingly decisive victory.  The winning margin was so large that Singh's Congress party and his closest allies, with 260 seats and two races undecided, came close to a 272-seat majority in the 543-seat parliament. The assumption that India, with its many divisive communities and ideologies, was doomed to weak coalition governments for the foreseeable future was swept away in ballot boxes across the country.”  This is a particularly significant achievement, because as the Wall Street Journal writes, “Two major trends have dominated Indian politics over the past 25 years: anti-incumbency -- with two of every three governments at both the national and state levels failing in their re-election bid -- and the rise of regional political parties, often at the expense of a national party such as Congress. But Congress regained ground in key states as it reorients the party's organizational structure to be increasingly sensitive to regional interests.” [Christian Science Monitor, 5/18/09. NPR, 5/18/09. Wall Street Journal, 5/18/09]

India, with the world’s largest democracy and second-largest Muslim population, proved that democracy is alive and well.  Indian democracy is a triumph and powerful example under any circumstances, but particularly this cycle. As Barbara Crossette writes for NPR, “Indian voters did not heed the rallying call of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), not even after Muslim terrorists (albeit mostly Pakistanis) attacked hotels and other targets in Mumbai. L.K.... Voters did not flock to politics based on caste, though the system remains strong in political calculations... Voters did not bolster the more insular political left, which included in its ranks strong opponents of Indian economic reforms and the nuclear agreement with the United States that opened the door to American technology despite India's refusal to sign safeguard treaties against nuclear weapons proliferation… Voters did not choose confrontation with neighbors. Prime Minister Singh has lowered the tone of rhetoric against Pakistan on numerous occasions and is remembered for his statesmanlike meetings with the former Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf.” While in many other fledgling democracies the losers of popular elections seek to undermine the process, Crossette continues, “It won't happen in India. Losers have stepped aside to do their political post-mortems, concessions have been gracious.” [NPR, 5/18/09]

India is one of the most influential rising powers, and these results will further increase the importance of its relationship with the U.S. India’s rise in the age of globalization is a true phenomenon.  As Stephen Cohen of the Brookings Institution says, “India had the resources and the infrastructure to take advantage of the most recent surge of globalization. It has become a global player in the software industry, a major center for advanced research,... a cultural superpower, and an efficient processor of services. As Thomas Friedman and others have noted, India (and China) have lifted the largest number of people in history out of poverty—yet India still has half of the world’s poor.”  The New York Times described India’s election, saying “The Congress Party’s showing vindicates the prime minister’s efforts to deepen a strategic partnership with the United States at a time when the Obama administration is deeply concerned about security in the region, chiefly in Pakistan and Afghanistan. A stronger government will also be better able to tackle issues of crucial importance to Washington, from economic reforms to climate change, although there is not necessarily agreement with the Americans on how to proceed.” India also plays an important regional role, making its relationship with the U.S. more important than ever.  The Christian Science Monitor said yesterday, “A stable, growing India is just what South Asia needs right now as smaller countries contend with political and terrorist upheavals. India's voters, who are largely rural and illiterate, didn't let the November terrorist attacks in Mumbai sway their choices. They want economic growth and stronger antipoverty programs. (Some 40 percent of Indians still live on less than $1.25 a day.) This election confirms the farsightedness of President George W. Bush in embracing India as a global partner. Within a few decades, India's economy could surpass that of the US while its population (now 1.2 billion) could be bigger than China's.” [NY Times, 5/17/09. Stephen Cohen, 4/09/09. Christian Science Monitor, 5/18/09]

What We’re Reading

President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met in D.C. yesterday.  Netanyahu will meet Congressional leaders today and is expected to discuss his position on a Palestinian state.  President Obama told Netanyahu that his administration has a timetable on Iran.

British Speaker of the House of Commons Michael Martin is expected to resign this afternoon over the expenses row.

Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa declared the civil war over and called for unity.

The U.S. and Russia began nuclear talks.

Ethiopian troops reportedly crossed back into Somalia – four months after leaving – as violence escalates.

The Supreme Court ruled that an ex-detainee could not sue high-ranking Bush administration officials for his treatment in U.S. custody.

Iraq arrested two Sunni leaders, raising fears of violence.

Vice President Joe Biden arrived in Bosnia for a three-day trip of the Balkans.

The United Nations will name former President Bill Clinton special envoy to Haiti.

The U.S. and China held secret talks on climate change. President Obama is also announcing stricter regulation of car emissions today, roughly matching California’s CAFÉ standard by 2016.

A joint analysis by U.S. and Russian scientists concluded that the U.S. missile shield in Europe would be ineffective against an Iranian attack.

Zalmay Khalilzad, the Bush administration’s ambassador to Afghanistan, seeks a role in the Afghan government.

Young Pakistanis take on responsibilities in a vacuum of government services.

U.S. housing statistics fell to record lows.

Commentary of the Day

The New York Times reacts to the Indian election.  Gideon Rachman writes about the ugly side of Indian democracy.

Gretchen Peters says the U.S. needs to take the fight to the Afghan drug lords.

Bob Herbert writes about the psychological toll of the war in Iraq.

Fareed Zakaria examines the effect of global fear and panic in the face of both the Swine Flu and global economic crisis, concluding that we should value “the sense of urgency that makes people act -- even overreact -- and ensures that a crisis doesn't mutate into a disaster."