5/12/09

Against a backdrop of violence and civilian casualties, the last few days have witnessed strong moves by the Obama administration to complete the move to a counter-insurgency strategy – in the strategy and management of US forces in Afghanistan and in the actions of US allies in Pakistan.  First, in Afghanistan, Obama’s Pentagon has taken a decisive step and replaced current NATO-ISAF commander David McKiernan with Lt. General Stanley McChrystal, former commander of the Joint Special Operations Command, and an expert in counterinsurgency.  McChrystal’s appointment is a strong indication that the administration will attempt to shift emphasis from “kinetic operations” – classic set-piece warfare which has proven ineffective against insurgencies -- to the population-centric tactics enshrined in counterinsurgency doctrine.  And it is not a moment too soon.  With Afghan approval ratings of the U.S. down 36 points since 2005 according to an ABC\BBC public opinion poll, it is critical that the U.S. solidify a strategy that can win the good will of Afghanistan’s people.  Yesterday’s announcement followed events in neighboring Pakistan that appeared to show the Pakistani government responding to persistent diplomatic pressure by the U.S. to confront the insurgents spilling out from its northwest frontier. But a counter-insurgency strategy requires a focus on the security and welfare of civilians -- and a set of tragic events underlines the difficulty involved and even threatens to derail the entire operation.  In Afghanistan, a series of airstrikes targeted at the insurgents mistakenly took the lives of at least 50 Afghan civilians, feeding popular disillusionment and the narrative of the extremists threatening the government.  And in Pakistan, the military’s attacks on insurgent forces in Buner, Dir and Swat provinces have displaced tens of thousands from their homes, straining government relief services and potentially causing even more instability.  If the U.S. and the Pakistani government are to effectively combat the insurgencies, they must pursue a carefully balanced approach, where military decisions are carefully weighed against potential human costs. A comprehensive strategy must confront the insurgency militarily and undercut popular support for the insurgents by gaining and maintaining the trust of the Afghan and Pakistani people.

In decisive step to reverse deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, Obama administration moves to replace NATO-ISAF codermman. “The Pentagon is replacing the top American commander in Afghanistan, Gen. David McKiernan, less than a year after he took over, marking a major overhaul in military leadership of a war that has presented President Obama with a worsening national security challenge... He is to be replaced by Lt. Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, a former commander of the Joint Special Operations Command who recently ran all special operations in Iraq,” according to the New York Times.  The appointment of an expert on counterinsurgency is a good sign that the president, Secretary Gates, and the military leadership understand the complexities of the war and what is needed in a comprehensive counterinsurgency policy.  As the Washington Post writes, “McChrystal is currently the director of the joint staff. From 2006 to August 2008 he was the forward commander of the U.S. military's secretive Joint Special Operations Command, responsible for tracking down high-level leaders of the Sunni insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq, including its former leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who was responsible for a brutal campaign of bombings and beheadings until he was killed by U.S. Special Operations Forces in April 2006. The leadership shift comes as the Obama administration works to execute a new counterinsurgency strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan to quell surging violence in those countries.” Although “one spot on General McChrystal’s generally sterling military record came in 2007, when a Pentagon investigation into the accidental shooting death in 2004 of Cpl. Pat Tillman... held General McChrystal accountable for inaccurate information.” Secretary Gates also announced that McCrystal’s deputy would be Gates’s own military assistant, signaling the importance of the mission in Afghanistan to the Obama administration.  The Wall Street Journal reports, “The new three-star commander, Lt. Gen. David Rodriguez, is now Mr. Gates' personal military assistant, and his nomination marks the latest effort by the Pentagon leadership to take a more hands-on approach to the Afghan war.” [NY Times, 5/11/09. Washington Post, 5/11/09. NY Times, 5/12/09. WS Journal, 5/11/09]

After weeks of intense diplomatic activity by the Obama administration, Pakistan government moves to confront growing unrest spilling out from its northwest frontier.  The Pakistani government took new, significant action to address the unrest spreading into the districts of Swat, Buner and Dir.  “For the past several days, Pakistan's army and the Taliban have been fighting sporadically along the mountain ridges of Swat after a peace deal collapsed. Pakistani officials say they are determined that the offensive will continue until the military asserts control over the 400-square-mile area,” reported the Wall Street Journal. The military offensive is a departure for Pakistan, which as the New York Times observed “has been deeply divided over its response to the militants, who are still seen in some sectors of the government and military as a secondary threat compared with India and who have actually received some covert support from factions within the intelligence services in the past.” As the Times report went on to indicate, this reluctance “has become a great source of tension with the United States, in particular.”  For weeks, the U.S. has been ratcheting up the pressure on the Pakistan government to make a sustained effort at quelling the growing instability by implementing a counterinsurgency strategy.  Testifying in April before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton suggested that the Pakistani government was “abdicating to the Taliban and to the extremists,” a remark which, though controversial, was the “kind of statement that helped wake up the Pakistanis,” according to a senior U.S. official quoted in the Washington Post.  Pakistan’s ongoing struggle was on the agenda as President Obama met with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari last week as part of a trilateral initiative that also included a Presidential delegation from Afghanistan.  Following the meeting, President Zardari recommitted Pakistan to fighting the insurgency, saying “Pakistani democracy will deliver, the terrorists will be defeated by our joint struggle. Me, my friend President Karzai and the United States... will stand shoulder to shoulder with the world to fight this cancer and this threat.” [WSJ, 5/11/09. NY Times, 5/9/09. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 4/22/09. Washington Post, 5/04/09. President Asif Ali Zardari, 5/06/09]

Counter-insurgency operations in both Afghanistan and Pakistan are immensely challenging and will require new approaches that focus on gaining the support of the civilian population. Unfortunate developments in both Afghanistan and Pakistan attest to why the U.S. must carefully implement its comprehensive approach for both countries, balancing military concerns with efforts to prevent harming innocent civilians.  In Afghanistan “as many as 130 civilians were killed last Monday and Tuesday by U.S. bombs,” according to the Afghan Government as reported in the Washington Post.  The Post went on to say that “[s]uch a toll would rank as the deadliest incident since U.S. forces began fighting in Afghanistan in 2001.”  And in Pakistan, while U.S. pressure appears to have moved the government toward addressing the worsening insurgency, the Pakistani army appears to be relying largely on conventional tactics like airstrikes and artillery, instead of adopting the counterinsurgency methods advocated by American commanders.  The Wall Street Journal reported that “Pakistan's military, built for tank battles and artillery duels against Indian forces on the plains of the subcontinent, has in the past four years struggled through a series of campaigns against the Taliban across the mountains of northwestern Pakistan... ‘Look at what they’re doing right now,’ said a U.S. official in Washington, referring to the airstrikes and artillery bombardment against Taliban positions in Swat over the past few days. ‘This is why they keep losing.’”  Worse still, the Pakistani army’s tactics have displaced thousands.  The Associated Press reported on what is quickly developing into a humanitarian crisis: “The United Nations said 360,600 refugees had fled Swat and neighboring Dir and Buner districts since operations began last week. That number is on top of some 500,000 people displaced by past offensives -- a major humanitarian challenge for the weak government that could test public support for the offensive. Most of the refugees are staying with friends and relatives or in rented accommodation.”  While General Petraeus said on Fox News that the Pakistani government understands the need to “reestablish basic services, repair the damage that is inevitably done by the bombardment of these areas in which the Taliban are located, and to take care of the internally displaced persons,” it remains unclear whether those efforts will be successful. [Washington Post, 5/11/09. WSJ, 5/11/09. Associated Press, 5/11/09. General David Petraeus, 5/11/09]

What We’re Reading

Defense Secretary Robert Gates fired the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, Gen. David McKiernan, as U.S. priorities shift to counterinsurgency.

Pakistan continues its Swat valley offensive.  The refugee crisis creates unrest.  A suspected U.S. drone attack killed 9.

The New York Times examines how Roxana Saberi’s release illustrates division in the Iranian government.

Ibn al-Sheikh al-Libi, a detainee who gave false information cited by the Bush administration in the run-up to the Iraq war, died in prison in Libya, an apparent suicide.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appealed to Egypt for support in creating a moderate Arab block against Iran.  He also pledged to renew discussions with the Palestinians within a few weeks.

A series of suicide bombings attacked Afghan government buildings in Khost, Afghanistan.  An Afghan government commission gave reparation payments to civilians whose relatives were killed in a battle between the Taliban and coalition forces last week.

Pope Benedict XVI visited holy sites in Jerusalem.  Yesterday, he walked out of an interfaith conference during an anti-Semitic speech.

President Obama threatened to limit intelligence sharing with the U.K. if the British High Court discloses new details of the treatment of former Guantanamo detainee Binyam Mohamed.

British Opposition Leader David Cameron forced senior Tory MPs to repay embarrassing expenses, as the political row escalates.

Sri Lankan government forces shelled a hospital in the war zone, killing at least 45.

The Washington Post looks at how various U.N. agencies turned against each other after an alleged crime from within.

Commentary of the Day

The LA Times celebrates Roxana Saberi’s release but also looks at the larger case of human rights abuses in Iran.

Anthony H. Cordesman argues for putting more effort into holding and building Iraq before withdrawing.

Bret Stephens discusses Pakistan’s existential challenge in being a country defined not by what it is but by what it is not.