A recent wave of violence in Iraq, including a triple car bombing today in Baghdad, should be a cause for concern.  Its main source is the lack of political reconciliation among Iraqis; the planned American troop withdrawals for the most part have yet to occur.  President Bush’s surge reduced the levels of violence in Iraq, but it was not able to bring about the tough political compromises necessary to bring about reconciliation – leaving the Obama administration a potential powder keg.  The Sunni Sons of Iraq and Awakening groups, which played a huge role in securing the country, are not being integrated into the Shi’a government.  In a number of recent cases their leaders are being arrested by Iraqi Security Forces.  To the extent they are weakened or stand down,  the country is left more vulnerable to Al Qaeda in Iraq.  Meanwhile, unresolved Kurdish-Arab tensions over the disputed territories in Northern Iraq and the distribution of oil revenues could still explode into greater violence.  The Obama administration has focused heavily on political reconciliation, with the President and Secretary Clinton both emphasizing this point with Prime Minister Maliki during recent trips to Iraq.  The appointment of Christopher Hill, an experienced and accomplished diplomat, as Ambassador to Iraq further emphasizes the importance the administration is putting on political reconciliation.  In the end, the plan to redeploy American forces and work towards political reconciliation presents the best path towards maintaining stability in Iraq and securing American interests.

Recent spike in violence in Iraq has raised concerns.  The BBC reports today that “Three car bombs have exploded in the Shia district of Sadr City in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, killing at least 41 people, police say.”  Last week the New York Times reported that “On Friday, twin suicide bombings killed at least 60 people outside Baghdad’s most revered Shiite shrine, pushing the death toll in one 24-hour period to nearly 150... Nearly half of those killed were Iranians making a pilgrimage. Like many recent attacks, the bombings appeared intended to inflame sectarian tensions, to weaken Iraq’s security forces and to discredit its government.” The Times goes on to report that “nearly 160 people died and scores were wounded in two days of suicide bombings last week, mainly against Shiites. The bombings,… were the bloodiest in more than a year.” “Under an agreement signed last year between Washington and Baghdad, American troops must leave Iraqi cities by the end of June. President Barack Obama, who also visited Iraq this month, has pledged to withdraw most Americans from the country altogether by late 2010. But the renewed violence has raised concern about what might happen here as the U.S. military shifts its focus to Afghanistan and Pakistan,” writes the Miami Herald.  The AFP goes on to say that, “With violence in Iraq surging, Petraeus voiced concern at ethnic and sectarian strains, tensions between political parties, the return of displaced people, and budget issues, among major challenges facing Baghdad.” [BBC, 4/29/09.  NY Times, 4/24/09. NY Times, 4/24/09. Miami Herald, 4/26/09. AFP, 4/24/09]

Recent spate of violence in Iraq results from lack of political accommodation, which remains the central issue.  Recent violence in Iraq is closely linked to the continuing lack of political accommodation.  One of the most troubling of these is the lack of payment for and arrests of the former insurgents, known as the Sons of Iraq or the Sunni Awakening.  As the New York Times says, “In interviews with leaders from a dozen local Awakening Councils, nearly all complained that full-time jobs were lacking, that pay was in arrears and that members were being arrested despite promises of amnesty.  Perhaps most ominously, many expressed concern this might drive some followers back to Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, a largely Iraqi group with some foreign leadership, at a time when both Iraqi and American military commanders say that the group seems to be making gains, small but worrisome, around Baghdad.” George Washington Professor and Middle-East expert Marc Lynch concluded that “the emerging crisis surrounding the Awakenings and the uptick in violence do both seem to be primarily driven by the continuing refusal of Maliki and the Iraqi government to make meaningful political accommodations and their decision to move against at least some of the Awakenings groups at a convenient moment.”  As a U.S. military officer explained in a recent Los Angeles Times article, “They (the Iraqi Government) are going after the key leaders, and once they eliminate the key leaders, the members will drift away. The problem is some of them will drift back to their old groups.”  Lack of political reconciliation is also at the root of ongoing tensions between Kurds and Arabs in Iraq’s north, which U.S. officials worry “could quickly explode into large-scale violence,” according to McClatchy. The McClatchy story points out that while “[a]ttention has focused on the Arab-Kurdish dispute over Kirkuk, an oil-rich city just south of Kurdistan where Kurds are fighting to reassert control after Saddam Hussein forced them out and Sunni Arabs took over,” “Nineveh and its capital city of Mosul have remained far more violent than much of Iraq has.” [NY Times, 3/23/09. Marc Lynch, 4/13/09. LA Times, 4/27/09. McClatchy, 4/14/09]

Obama administration pushes for much-needed political reconciliation, after years in which the Bush administration gave the issue short-shrift. The surge failed to address the underlying political dynamics in Iraq, leaving the Obama administration with a messy, complicated and unstable situation.  As the New York Times wrote yesterday, “Mr. Obama… must now persuade Iraq’s Shiite-dominated government to reconcile with the Sunnis and to defuse tensions with the Kurds. Iraq still has not agreed on a law to equitably share its oil resources. Thousands of members of the Sunni Awakening Councils, the former insurgents whose decision to switch sides helped change the course of the war, are still waiting for promised government jobs.”  Fortunately, the Obama administration has taken the early steps to try to address these political challenges.  In his first visit to Iraq since the election, President Obama pushed for progress on political reconciliation.  According to the New York Times, Obama “emphasized the need for Iraq to do more to advance political reconciliation, to improve governance and basic services, and to create security.  Overall violence continues to be down,’ Mr. Obama said. ‘There has been movement on important political questions. But we have been reminded that there’s more work to do.’”  The President continued, saying that “[t]hey [Iraqi Political Leaders] have got to make political accommodations…They're going to have to decide that they want to resolve their differences through constitutional means and legal means.”  Prime Minister Maliki responded by saying that “dialogue should be the only way to resolve any issue, whether it was between the Iraqi security components, or in the region.”  In a visit last week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also expressed the administration’s focus on Iraq, saying “I wanted to come today to repeat the commitment that President Obama and I and our government have to the people and nation of Iraq.”  The appointment of senior diplomat Christopher Hill as Ambassador to Iraq is yet another positive step forward.  “Hill said his top priorities in Iraq would be helping carry out successful parliamentary elections, passing a long-delayed law on oil revenue-sharing, and improving relations between Baghdad and the countries around it,” according to AFP. [Washington Post, 4/08/09. NY Times, 4/08/09. Secretary of State Clinton, 4/26/09. AFP, 4/25/09]

What We’re Reading

The U.S. economy contracted by 6.1% last quarter, worse than expected.

North Korea threatened nuclear testing and to start enriching uranium unless the U.N. lifts and apologizes for its sanctions.

The first U.S. death from swine flu occurred in Texas as the virus continues to spread. The World Health Organizations advises that global travel restrictions won’t inhibit the virus’ spread, while organizations and nations continue to reduce fears over the consumption of pork.

Pakistan continues its offensive against the Taliban and claimed to have re-taken a strategic town in Buner province.  The Taliban’s advances prompt adjustments in U.S. strategy.

Afghanistan cancelled public celebrations of a holiday marking victory over the Soviet Union for the first time in sixteen years, likely over security concerns.  The U.S. undertakes an offensive against Afghan poppy cultivation.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki said that Iraq captured a major insurgency leader, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, however he is a controversial figure and the U.S. military has doubted that he in fact exists.

Fatah and Hamas ended talks without agreement, but decided to meet one more time to try to reach an accord before May 15.

In Sri Lanka, French and British foreign ministers tried to get the government to agree to a cease-fire.  Sri Lanka barred the Swedish foreign minister, who was supposed to join negotiations, for his pro-peace stance.

A U.N. court ordered the release of four Lebanese generals held over the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri for insufficient evidence.

Cybersecurity experts described U.S. digital defenses as “broken” and “childlike.”

China dropped its objections to Taiwan observing the next decision-making meeting of the WHO.

Commentary of the Day

Today is the 100th day of the Obama administration.  Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright; Amb. Marc Ginsberg, former U.S. ambassador to Morocco; NSN’s own Ilan Goldenberg; VoteVets.org Vice-Chair Brandon Friedman; and the New York Times’ 100 Days project react.

Tom Friedman explains why President Obama got the release of the torture memos right.

Pakistan’s ambassador to the U.S. lays out the Pakistani perspective on partnership with the U.S and its strategy against the Taliban.

The Wall Street Journal acknowledges that Obama’s presidency has heralded a new era abroad, but still says dissent remains and policies have yet to shift substantially.