4/16/09

President Obama embarks on his first trip to Mexico this week in an effort to warm up a cool relationship and turn rhetoric into substance on the shared challenges the two countries face.  A former Mexican President described the prior state of the relationship as “little pats on the back” – yet Mexico is one of the US most important energy suppliers and trade partners and faces a struggle with drug cartels that has its roots on both sides of the border. Last year, almost 6,000 people were killed in drug-related violence. The effort to bring down the cartels has exposed deep-seated corruption, as well as resulted in high profile assassinations of Mexican government officials. Yet Mexico’s struggles are intimately linked to the situation across the border. As drugs come across the border to meet US demand, automatic weapons from U.S. gun stores flow into Mexico, worsening the violence and resulting in the deaths of Mexican officials and civilians. The relationship is further challenged by  the global economic turmoil that began on Wall Street and has harmed Mexican exports and resulted in the decline of American investment in Mexico.

The Obama administration has recognized that the challenges facing Mexico are serious foreign policy concerns for the United States and that they can only be overcome by both countries taking shared responsibility to address them. Secretaries Clinton and Napolitano and Attorney General Holder have each travelled to Mexico. The Administration has offered assistance to the Mexican government, taken steps to prevent American small-arms trafficking, begun to formulate a comprehensive plan to counter trafficking, and put a border czar in place at DHS to ensure comprehensive, high-level focus. These represent promising initial steps. During his trip to Mexico City, President Obama should seek to build on these promising initial steps and lay the groundwork for a broader more comprehensive partnership that can work to promote economic growth and prosperity on both sides of the border, addresses climate change, and tackle the challenges surrounding the border and immigration.

Mexico faces challenges that are rooted in dynamics on both sides of the border. 90% of the cocaine entering the U.S. comes through Mexico, and 90% of the firearms that fuel drug-related violence in Mexico come from the U.S.  The New York Times reported on how lax gun laws along the border have contributed to Mexico’s unrest: “in some states along the Southwest border where firearms are lightly regulated, gun smugglers can evade detection for months or years. In Texas, New Mexico and Arizona, dealers can sell an unlimited number of rifles to anyone with a driver’s license and a clean criminal record without reporting the sales to the government… Sending straw buyers into American stores, cartels have stocked up on semiautomatic AK-47 and AR-15 rifles, converting some to machine guns, investigators in both countries say. They have also bought .50 caliber rifles capable of stopping a car and Belgian pistols able to fire rifle rounds that will penetrate body armor.”  Mexico and the U.S. are similarly linked when it comes to the economy.  Mexico, the 12th largest economy in the world, is America’s third largest trading partner.  It is also the 3rd largest source of US oil imports and maintains large natural gas reserves, which are exported to the U.S in significant quantities.  The U.S. is also responsible for close to 50% of all foreign direct investment in Mexico.  A recent report by the Brookings Institution elaborated on how the U.S. economic crisis has spread to Mexico: “As the U.S. economy contracts, Americans consume fewer Mexican imports, Mexican workers in the United States send home less money, U.S. firms with businesses in Mexico invest less, American-owned banks in Mexico make fewer loans, and the quality of U.S. financial assets in Mexican hands deteriorates further. Add to this the collapse in confidence in the U.S. economy, which is likely to spread to other economies closely connected to it, including Mexico’s. The result will be a potentially deep and protracted recession in Mexico.” [U.S. Department of State, 2008. William Hoover, ATF, 2/07/08. NY Times, 4/15/09. Brookings Report, 11/24/08. Center for American Progress, 03/07. Gen. Barry McCaffrey, 12/08. Brookings, 3/04/09]

Obama administration committed to partnering with Mexico’s government to address mutual concerns on security, law enforcement, trade.  There are signs that the Obama administration is beginning to take ownership of the U.S.’ own role in Mexico’s difficulties, particularly when it comes to narcotics and the economy.  The LA Times writes, “Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton won praise during a trip to Mexico last month in which she said Americans' ‘insatiable’ appetite for drugs was largely to blame for the problem. It was, in the Mexican view, the most explicit acknowledgment of ‘co-responsibility’ to date, and Calderon's government believes all of these steps signal a new approach.” President Obama echoed these comments saying "We have got to reduce the demand for drugs...[w]e have got to do our part in reducing the flow of cash and guns south [to Mexico]."  The President ordered Secretary Clinton, Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano, and other top administration officials “to formulate a coordinated response to the trafficking threat,” according to Voice of America, as well as promising “financing for US-made Blackhawk helicopters on top of a 1.4-billion-dollar US plan to help train and equip Mexican anti-drug forces known as the Merida Initiative,” reported AFP.  Additional first steps include the appointment of a “border czar” at DHS, which will be filled by former U.S. Attorney Alan Bersin. He will, according to the AP, oversee Department “efforts to end drug cartel violence along the U.S.-Mexico border. ” Additionally, the U.S. will add three of Mexico’s cartels to the “list of banned foreign ‘drug kingpins,’ a move that empowers the federal government to seize their assets,” and “allows the government to seek criminal penalties against U.S. firms or individuals who provide weapons, launder money or transport drugs or cash for the organizations,” according to the Washington Post.  The weakening economy on both sides of the border has injected extra tensions into the relationship.  Reuters  points to a trade dispute in which “Mexico slapped retaliatory tariffs on $2.4 billion worth of U.S. goods last month after Obama signed an omnibus spending bill that canceled a pilot program allowing Mexican long-haul truckers to operate in the United States, as required by the North American Free Trade Agreement.”  According to the Associated Press, “both leaders [Obama and Calderon] hope to resolve disputes” over such issues during their meetings this week. The Mexican Attorney General stated, Eduardo Medina Mora said, “the Obama visit is a chance to cement new cooperation.” [LA Times, 4/16/09. U.S. Department of State, 2008. William Hoover, ATF, 2/07/08. Secretary of State Clinton, 3/25/09. President Obama, 3/29/09. VOA, 4/14/09. AFP, 4/13/09. Reuters, 4/14/09. AP, 4/14/09. AP, 4/15/09. Washington Post, 4/16/09]

Immediate focus on narcotics must be integrated within larger policy seeking a more comprehensive and cooperative relationship across a range of issues. According to a recent task-force report by the Wilson Center, “[t]he Obama administration and the incoming Congress have the opportunity to raise the level of attention given to Mexico and to pursue a strategic partnership based on consultation and cooperation around issues of shared national interest.”  Previous Administrations, especially that of George W. Bush, promised much to Mexico but delivered what former Mexican President Vicente Fox described as “little pats on the back like I used to get for six years.”  To accomplish this, the U.S. must widen its focus beyond the urgent crisis posed by narcotics and security.  There are a number of items that should be part of this revamped agenda.  For one, the U.S. can move to check cross-border “economic instability during the downturn by maintaining constant contact with the Mexican government, and keeping a line of credit from the Federal Reserve open for Mexico during the current economic crisis.”  The U.S. should also use funds from the stimulus package to upgrade border infrastructure, a move with obvious trade and job-creation advantages.  More broadly it should link the relatively discrete issue of trade with broader efforts to boost Mexican development, through such initiatives as a bi-national task-force “to augment development cooperation over time for targeted purposes,” naming special representatives from all three NAFTA countries to work on compliance issues, and increasing expenditures on educational and cultural exchanges.  The Obama administration can also take advantage of its shared commitment with the Calderon government to fight global warming by promoting dialogue and initiatives within the hemisphere. [The Wilson Center, 1/09. LA Times, 4/16/09]

What We’re Reading

A suicide attack in Iraq killed at least 15.  Iraqi provinces try to overcome disarray in provincial governments.  The U.S. military expresses concern over the perception of an Iraqi crackdown on Sunnis.

As President Obama prepares to visit Mexico, the Administration takes on cartel financing.

The Obama administration looks to balance its response to North Korea, urging both sanctions and talks.

Russia ended its decade-long counter-terrorism operation against separatist rebels in Chechnya.

Millions of Indians went to the polls today for the first part of India’s month-long general elections.  Maoist rebels staged at least four attacks aiming to disrupt the elections.

The Obama administration is expected to release parts of CIA interrogation memos shortly, although certain names and procedures will be kept secret.

Pakistan delicately responds to the issue of Predator drone strikes.

Colombia captured the country’s most wanted drug lord.

The Obama administration lays out its anti-piracy plan.

The NSA intercepted more private emails and phone calls than permitted by Congress.

China bought $4.6 billion U.S. securities in February, fewer than in the past.  China is expanding its influence in Latin America through business deals.

The Pentagon abolished an office accused of issuing propaganda under the Bush administration.

Climate scientists suggest reducing third-world stove soot as an easy and effective way to combat global warming.

Commentary of the Day

E.J. Dionne looks at the strengths of the “Obama Doctrine,” which is a “form of realism unafraid to deploy American power but mindful that its use must be tempered by practical limits and a dose of self-awareness. Those are the limits that defenders of the recent past have trouble accepting.”

Timothy Garton Ash looks at the media bias against foreign news.

The Financial Times supports President Obama’s changes in U.S. policy on Cuba.