4/6/09

Nuclear weapons present perhaps the greatest threat to our global security.  Yet, for eight years the Bush administration shunned the global arms control regime that has played such a crucial role in preventing the further spread of nuclear weapons.  Rather than engaging in real diplomacy, the Bush administration stood on the sidelines as North Korea built up its nuclear program and Iran developed its uranium enrichment capabilities.  

This week, President Obama sent a very clear signal that non-proliferation is back at the top of the agenda.  He called for nuclear disarmament, embraced the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, promised greater progress on a system for sharing civilian nuclear energy and an international fuel bank, and worked to ensure that terrorists cannot gain access to nuclear material.  The speech came after a successful meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev during which both leaders committed to work towards a new treaty that would dramatically reduce nuclear stockpiles.  The two nations possess 95% of the world’s nuclear weapons.  Moves to reduce our stockpiles are both an important safety and security measure and a powerful signal that the foremost nuclear powers mean what they say and others should follow their lead.  

Yet, North Korea’s missile launch this weekend was a stark reminder of the serious proliferation problems the world faces – and of how challenging they will be to resolve.  If we are to lead a unified and tough international response, we must also lead by example.  The President’s moves this week were an important step in that direction.

President Obama’s speech in Prague shows a renewed commitment to nonproliferation and a desire to take new, 21st-century initiatives.   Recognizing America’s responsibility and role as a global leader, the president argues for a realistic approach to reducing nuclear weapons. He said, “So today, I state clearly and with conviction America's commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons. I'm not naive. This goal will not be reached quickly -- perhaps not in my lifetime. It will take patience and persistence. But now we, too, must ignore the voices who tell us that the world cannot change.”  The president said, “The existence of thousands of nuclear weapons is the most dangerous legacy of the Cold War... Today, the Cold War has disappeared but thousands of those weapons have not. In a strange turn of history, the threat of global nuclear war has gone down, but the risk of a nuclear attack has gone up. More nations have acquired these weapons. Testing has continued. Black market trade in nuclear secrets and nuclear materials abound. The technology to build a bomb has spread. Terrorists are determined to buy, build or steal one. Our efforts to contain these dangers are centered on a global non-proliferation regime, but as more people and nations break the rules, we could reach the point where the center cannot hold.”  [President Barack Obama, 4/5/09.]

North Korea missile launch reminds us that global de-nuclearization will not come easily.  During his speech in Prague, the President observed that “North Korea’s missile test illustrated ‘the need for action, not just this afternoon at the U.N. Security Council, but in our determination to prevent the spread of these weapons,’ reported the New York Times. Yet, the Times continued, “it remained unclear exactly what the West would be able to do to punish North Korea.” “At the United Nations Security Council on Sunday, members were at an impasse on whether to condemn the test. The United States and its main allies — Japan, France and Britain — were pushing for a resolution denouncing the launching as a violation of the 2006 sanctions, which demanded that North Korea suspend any activity related to the launching of ballistic missiles.” However, “China left its position ambiguous,” and Russia’s envoy to the UN Security Council, Igor N. Schcherbak, said that “his country did not think it was a violation of the previous resolutions banning ballistic missiles,” according to the Times.  The problems posed by North Korea have some of their roots in the Bush administration’s failure to thwart nuclear proliferation.  For the first 6 years of his administration, President Bush reversed the Clinton-era policy of engaging directly with North Korea – a policy that was working.  By the time the Bush administration had belatedly opted to re-engage, North Korea had developed enough material for approximately 10 nuclear bombs and even tested a device in 2006.  More broadly, President Bush’s policies undermined specific treaties and institutions as well as international consensus in favor of preventing the spread of nuclear weapons.  The Economist summarized the cool-headed approach we need: “Calmer voices will now urge all sides to restart the six-party process, which has stalled since last autumn because North Korea has failed to commit to adequate verification of the nuclear programmes it has declared. Not for the first time, engaging with North Korea after yet another of its provocations will now stick in the craw for many. Yet as with a child throwing hissy-fits, sometimes indifference is the best response.” [President Barack Obama, 4/05/09. NY Times, 4/05/09. NSN, Bush Legacy Project, 1/09/09. The Economist, 4/5/09]

Reducing the threat from nuclear weapons will require concerted diplomatic action from U.S., particularly in cooperation with Russia.  Global efforts aimed at reducing the stockpile of nuclear weapons can only be successful if world’s two greatest nuclear powers commit to de-nuclearization.  According to the Guardian, “[t]he US has about 10,000 of the world's estimated 24,000 nuclear weapons, and Russia 13,000.”  The Obama administration embarked on the first step of that process by signing a memorandum of understanding with Russia, which laid out a broad agenda but focused specifically on greater cooperation on issues of non-proliferation that included “negotiations to a draft a new arms control treaty that could slash the American and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals by about a third.”  This cooperation can yield pragmatic benefits for both countries and, on questions of arms control, a significant boost for the Obama Administration in global public opinion, which has been waiting for such a step from the world’s two foremost nuclear powers.  In his speech in Prague, President Obama further committed to working with Russia on nuclear weapons, stating “We can't reduce the threat of a nuclear weapon going off unless those that possess the most nuclear weapons, the United States and Russia, take serious steps to reduce our stockpiles.  So we want to pursue that vigorously in the years ahead."  [Joint Statement by President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, 4/01/09. The Guardian, 4/4/09. President Barack Obama, 4/4/09]

In his Prague speech the president established a clear agenda for U.S. leadership in the global effort to reduce nuclear weapons – now and in the years ahead.  “First, the United States will take concrete steps towards a world without nuclear weapons. To put an end to Cold War thinking, we will reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy, and urge others to do the same. Make no mistake: As long as these weapons exist, the United States will maintain a safe, secure and effective arsenal to deter any adversary, and guarantee that defense to our allies... To reduce our warheads and stockpiles, we will negotiate a new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with the Russians this year.  President Medvedev and I began this process in London, and will seek a new agreement by the end of this year that is legally binding and sufficiently bold... To achieve a global ban on nuclear testing, my administration will immediately and aggressively pursue U.S. ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty...  And to cut off the building blocks needed for a bomb, the United States will seek a new treaty that verifiably ends the production of fissile materials intended for use in state nuclear weapons... Second, together we will strengthen the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as a basis for cooperation. The basic bargain is sound: Countries with nuclear weapons will move towards disarmament, countries without nuclear weapons will not acquire them, and all countries can access peaceful nuclear energy... And we should build a new framework for civil nuclear cooperation, including an international fuel bank, so that countries can access peaceful power without increasing the risks of proliferation... So, finally, we must ensure that terrorists never acquire a nuclear weapon. This is the most immediate and extreme threat to global security. One terrorist with one nuclear weapon could unleash massive destruction... So today I am announcing a new international effort to secure all vulnerable nuclear material around the world within four years. We will set new standards, expand our cooperation with Russia, pursue new partnerships to lock down these sensitive materials. We must also build on our efforts to break up black markets, detect and intercept materials in transit, and use financial tools to disrupt this dangerous trade.  Because this threat will be lasting, we should come together to turn efforts such as the Proliferation Security Initiative and the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism into durable international institutions. And we should start by having a Global Summit on Nuclear Security that the United States will host within the next year.” [President Barack Obama, 4/5/09.]

What We’re Reading

President Obama is in Turkey today, and addressed Turkey’s parliament saying that the U.S. “is not and will never be at war with Islam."

A series of six car bombs killed at least 30 in Baghdad.  Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas visits Baghdad for the first time since the war began.

Three suicide attacks in 24 hours in Pakistan killed at least 42.  The U.S. presses Pakistan for more action against the Taliban and al Qaeda, but the Pakistani military is focused on combating India.

NATO approved President Obama’s Afghanistan plan, but committed few troops.

A strong earthquake in central Italy killed at least 92.

Police in Dubai traced the murder of a Chechen opposition leader to a Russian member of parliament with ties to the Chechen president.

Almost all of the aid promised to Mexico under the Merida package is delayed.  Remind what/when this was promised – i.e. Bush Administration

The New York Times examines the changes Raul Castro is making to the Cuban government.

Sri Lanka promises that the end of their civil war is near.  The military killed over 450 Tamil Tiger rebels, and pushed survivors into a civilian no-fire zone.

Prosecutors in South Africa dropped charges against ANC leader Jacob Zuma.

For the first time since the ban was lifted, the media covers the return of U.S. war dead.

The U.S. military studies the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war, drawing divided conclusions.

Commentary of the Day

Roger Cohen interviewed Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Joe Cirincione, President of the Ploughshares Fund, writes about the North Korean missile test and President Obama’s disarmament speech.

Nicholas Goldberg examines the legacy and outlook for Benjamin Netanyahu.

John Kael Weston explains the necessity for a strong U.S. ambassador in Iraq.

Gregory Rodriguez looks at how the Mexican drug war will affect immigrants in the U.S.