3/30/09

Tomorrow’s conference at The Hague – bringing together almost one hundred countries, international and non-governmental organizations – represents an important step in implementing a comprehensive strategy for Afghanistan that recognizes that American interests cannot be secured through military force alone.  Afghanistan’s neighbors including Pakistan, Iran, Russia, India, China and the Gulf States all have significant interests in the country.  If they are not engaged to play a productive and positive role, there is little chance that Afghanistan can be stabilized.  Moreover, the international community and our European allies have strong civilian capabilities in areas such as police training, agricultural development and governance assistance.  Rather than asking them to commit more troops, which is strongly opposed by their domestic constituencies, President Obama has asked for help on the critical civilian components of this comprehensive strategy.  Already this approach is yielding results with new commitments over the past few days.  As we head into The Hague conference and the NATO summit later this week, this is where the United States should be focusing its efforts and where we will be able to measure diplomatic success in months ahead.

By presenting a strategy at upcoming Hague Conference, Obama administration recognizes that international cooperation is critical for meeting objectives in Afghanistan.  “After unveiling its strategy review for Afghanistan, the U.S. administration this week starts selling it in earnest to the rest of the world at a conference in the Netherlands,” said the Wall Street Journal today.  With more than 75 countries and a dozen donor agencies in attendance, Reuters reported that “Washington is hoping to enlist support from Iran, Russia, China and India amongst others for a new strategy to end a stalemate in Afghanistan and undercut an Islamist insurgency spilling increasingly into neighboring Pakistan.”  Dutch Foreign Minister Maxime Verhagen elaborated on the purpose of the conference, saying “We need first, to ensure that there is a regional approach, and second, that neighboring countries like Iran and Pakistan are involved in creating a stable situation in Afghanistan.”  Gaining international and regional support for the strategy for Afghanistan has been a top priority for the Obama administration.  The President underscored his administration’s commitment to diplomacy during last week’s strategy announcement: “My Administration is committed to strengthening international organizations and collective action, and that will be my message next week in Europe. As America does more, we will ask others to join us in doing their part… together with the United Nations, we will forge a new Contact Group for Afghanistan and Pakistan that brings together all who should have a stake in the security of the region.”  [WSJ, 3/30/09. Hague Conference on Afghanistan. Reuters, 3/29/09. President Obama, 3/26/09.]

Without effective regional engagement, there is little chance for stabilizing Afghanistan.  As Parag Khanna recently explained, “China, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are also becoming increasingly important -- not as neighbors of the chaos, like Pakistan, but meddlers in it… these dealings could eclipse even the most brilliant U.S. shuttle diplomacy by Holbrooke.”  Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke recognized this point and has called for “a new, intense, engaged diplomacy designed to put Afghanistan and Pakistan into a larger regional context and move forward to engage other countries in the effort to stabilize this incredibly volatile region.”  The Bush administration’s policy of refusing to engage Iran on this issue was particularly harmful.  As Barnett Rubin and Sara Batmanglich argued, ““The U.S. government should first of all recognize privately and publicly that it has many common interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan with Iran, whatever differences it may have on other issues. During the first few years of the Afghanistan operation (through the ambassadorship of Zalmay Khalilzad, who left in 2005), the U.S. and Iran carried on regular discussions on subjects of mutual interest in Kabul. The U.S. should offer to renew such discussions with no further conditions. Several officials of the government of Iran, who may not represent the current policy, have asked to renew such talks, especially to exchange information on the threat from al-Qaida in the FATA. [Parag Khanna, 2/09.  Richard Holbrooke, 2/19/09.  Barnett Rubin & Sara Batmanglich, October 2008]

Diplomatic push at the Hague and later this week at NATO is just one facet of a comprehensive strategy designed to stabilize Afghanistan.  In an interview on Face the Nation, President Obama spoke on the need for a comprehensive approach that looks beyond military means to stabilize Afghanistan: “part of what you're seeing – both in Afghanistan and Pakistan I think is fully resourcing a comprehensive strategy that doesn't just rely on bullets or bombs but also relies on agricultural specialists, on doctors, on engineers, to help create an environment in which people recognize that they have much more at stake in partnering with us and the international community than giving into some of these…extremist ideologies.”  Obama went further, discussing the need to look beyond military solutions: “What I will not do is to simply assume that more troops always results in an improved situation…We've gotta also make sure that our civilian efforts, our diplomatic efforts and our development efforts, are just as robustly encouraged.”  [President Obama, 3/29/09]

Hague conference is an opportunity to work with our allies and the international community, combining different skills and talents.  As President Obama explained, “From our partners and NATO allies, we seek not simply troops, but rather clearly defined capabilities: supporting the Afghan elections, training Afghan Security Forces, and a greater civilian commitment to the Afghan people. For the United Nations, we seek greater progress for its mandate to coordinate international action and assistance, and to strengthen Afghan institutions.”  Coinciding with the President’s call for a major new civilian effort to stabilize Afghanistan, was a strong showing from our European partners towards a commitment on civilian efforts.  As the AFP reports via the Nation “EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner, speaking before Obama’s announcement, said that more financial aid to the country would be announced at a conference on Afghanistan in The Netherlands next Tuesday. ‘We will certainly contribute to a civilian surge, having some more funds available,’ she said as she arrived, adding that she might announce an amount at The Hague.”  A recent report from the European Council on Foreign Relations concludes that, “The EU is, in fact, well placed to strengthen its role in many of the key areas that require a renewed effort in Afghanistan and Pakistan, such as policing assistance, political outreach and regional confidence-building.” According to the Wall Street Journal, “[t]he EU's foreign-affairs commissioner said last week that the bloc may use The Hague conference to announce an increase in its aid to Afghanistan, currently set at €610 million ($825 million) for 2007-10. The U.K. last week also urged the EU to negotiate a free-trade deal with Pakistan to help stabilize that country.  In addition, the AFP reported, “French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has also said that France and other member states — Italy, The Netherlands, Portugal, Romania and Spain — were ready to send an armed gendarmerie force to boost the Afghan police.”  [AFP, 3/28/09. WSJ, 3/30/09. European Council on Foreign Relations, 3/09]

What We’re Reading

Gunmen attacked a police academy in Lahore.  Police re-took the building after an eight-hour siege and as many as 27 police offers were killed.

Tensions rise between the Iraq Security Forces and Sunni fighters, with military clashes in Baghdad over the weekend.  Radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s faction splintered, weakening the movement and raising hopes for political stability.

Officials say that Abu Zubaida’s harsh interrogation, including waterboarding, produced false leads and no useful information.

General David Petraeus rejected former Vice President Dick Cheney’s statements that President Obama’s detainee policy makes Americans less safe.  He also said that “if one violates the values we hold so dear, we jeopardize our troops.”

The upcoming G-20 poses challenges for President Obama.  Rising powers challenge U.S. leadership on the IMF.

Legislation will be introduced this week in Congress to lift the travel ban on Cuba.

North Korea’s test rocket is on the launch pad.  The U.S. has no plans to interfere with the launch unless it attacks U.S. territory, but deploys interceptor ships to the region.

A senior Israeli intelligence official says weapons smuggling into Gaza continues but that Egyptian attempts to combat smuggling have improved.

Chinese analysts dismiss allegations of a computer spying operation based in China.

In the drug war, Mexico fights its own institutions as well as cartels.

The Afghan Supreme Court says President Hamid Karzai may remain in office following the end of his term on May 21 until the presidential election on August 20 to preserve political stability.

A suicide bomber in Kandahar killed eight.  USA Today looks at the role of farmers in the Obama administration’s Afghanistan strategy and the importance of trust in working with them.

The Obama administration’s chief climate change negotiator pledged strong engagement in talks, but warned of a difficult path ahead.  Clean, safe nuclear power comes back into the energy spotlight.

Protests in Thailand continue for a fifth day, as the Prime Minister avoids his office.

Hearings begin at the war crimes trial of the Khmer Rouge prison chief.

After a six-week ban, China will re-open Tibet to foreign tourists on April 5.

Commentary of the Day

Senator John Kerry says that Mexico’s drug war “must be our war.”

The LA Times looks at challenges for the G-20 and criticizes the Obama administration’s protectionism.

Robert Kagan doesn’t see any downside to the Obama administration’s approach to Iran.

Ludmilla Alexeeva and Gregory Shvedov urge the United States to continue supporting democracy worldwide.

Jonathan Alter says that Obama, like Franklin Roosevelt, is “making an early down payment on big ideas.”