3/24/09

This week the Obama Administration rolls out a new approach toward partnering with Mexico to address shared security threats:  a new security plan to target drug cartel violence and visits by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Attorney General Eric Holder, and Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano.  The plan is a welcome first step not just for the challenges on the Mexican border but toward an approach to security that gets out of traditional “foreign” and “domestic” policy boxes for a comprehensive approach.

An epidemic of violence related to the drug trade has sparked a worsening crisis in Mexico.  There were roughly 6,000 murders tied to narcotics last year, and each week brings greater evidence of corruption, intimidation, and violence, reaching the highest levels of the Mexican government.  With over 90% of America’s cocaine traveling through Mexico, and with the U.S. supplying roughly 90% of the guns used in drug violence in Mexico, there is strong evidence that the problem extends to both sides of the border.  

This week Secretary Napolitano presents the results of a multi agency security plan:  doubling the number of border security task force teams and increasing intelligence sharing to prevent money and guns from going south.  These are welcome steps toward preventing the spillover of violence into the US and preventing US guns from fueling the violence further.  But longer-term challenges remain such as helping the Mexican Government build up its own security and judicial institutions, and reducing our own domestic drug demand, which drives the Mexican market.

Drug war threatens U.S.-Mexico border-region. For the last several years, Mexico has suffered more and more from violence related to its potent narcotics industry.  Last month the Wall Street Journal wrote, “Mexico is waging a do-or-die battle with the world's most powerful drug cartels. Last year, some 6,000 people died in drug-related violence here, more than twice the number killed the previous year.”  “Since assuming power more than two years ago, Mr. Calderón has sent thousands of soldiers to confront the country's drug cartels, which have been fighting an internecine war over domestic markets and drug routes to the U.S.”  This violence has begun to spill over to American border cities.  The Dallas Morning News reports, “Violence in the drug war and border security are taking on growing prominence... U.S. officials are increasingly concerned that the violence could spill over the border.” In a report from Arizona, the New York Times writes, “Tucson is hardly alone in feeling the impact of Mexico’s drug cartels and their trade. In the past few years, the cartels and other drug trafficking organizations have extended their reach across the United States and into Canada.” The seriousness of the situation is compounded by deep economic uncertainty, both in Mexico and the U.S.  The Mexican economy contracted 1.6% in the last quarter of 2008, with unemployment reaching “the highest level in eight years.”  Bloomberg News reports that according to Fitch Ratings Agency, “Mexico’s economy will contract 2.5 percent this year as U.S. consumers curb demand for Mexican exports and remittances from workers abroad decline.”  [WS Journal, 3/24/09. WS Journal, 2/21/09. Dallas Morning News, 3/23/09. NY Times, 3/23/09.  LA Times, 3/24/09. Financial Times, 2/21/09. NY Times, 12/29/08. The Economist, 1/22/09. Bloomberg News, 3/23/09]

The Obama administration is making the issue a priority and working with the Mexican government to address this challenge.  The Washington Post reported that “President Obama is finalizing plans to move federal agents, equipment and other resources to the border with Mexico to support Mexican President Felipe Calderón's campaign against violent drug cartels, according to U.S. security officials.”  According to the Post, “administration officials are expected to announce as early as this week a crackdown on the supply of weapons and cash moving from the United States into Mexico that helps sustain that country's narco-traffickers.”  “The announcement sets the stage for Mexico City visits by three Cabinet members, beginning Wednesday with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and followed next week by Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. and Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano.”  Napolitano expanded on the U.S. commitment to supporting the Mexican government as it faces this challenge, saying “We are working very closely with the Mexican government to ensure our mutual security…There is a big safety interest for the United States in this battle, be it conducted in Northern Mexico or within the United States.”  [Washington Post, 3/22/09. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, 3/20/09. USA Today, 3/23/09]

U.S. must partner with Mexico to address narcotics-fueled instability rooted in dynamics on both sides of the border.  Mexico’s violent struggle against the drug cartels amounts to a serious national security concern, but more than that, it is manifestation of a drug problem for which both Mexico and the U.S. share responsibility.  There are several broader steps the U.S. can take to address this problem, and there are early signs that the Obama administration is treating these recommendations seriously:

•Gun smuggling:  One step toward addressing this problem “involves the United States getting its own house in order,” and “[e]nforcing U.S. gun laws and inspecting traffic on the border going south -- not just north -- would help reduce the tools of violence in Mexico,” notes Council on Foreign Relations Fellow Shannon O’Neil.   Already, Secretary Napolitano has integrated expanding efforts “to trace the sources of guns that move from the United States into Mexico,” as part of the Obama administration’s strategy for Mexico. [CFR, 2/24/09. Washington Post, 3/22/09]

•Money smuggling:  The U.S. can also take steps to interdict the billions in drug money smuggled across the border, following a model along the lines of the Foreign Terrorist Asset Tracking Center, designed to hamper terrorist financiers.  Early indications are that the multi-agency strategy crafted by Napolitano will include the employment of tools “to track terrorist financing to follow the flow of funds within the estimated $65 billion North American drug trade.” [NSN, 2/26/09. Washington Post, 3/22/09]

•Mexican institutions:  In addition, the U.S. should consult with the Mexican government, not only to help build law enforcement capacity, but to assist in “efforts to strengthen Mexico’s judicial and law enforcement institutions,” by “providing training and information sharing” on judicial reform and police reform.  According to the Washington Post, the Obama administration’s plan will likely include the deployment of enhanced surveillance technology along the U.S. – Mexico border as well as increased “intelligence sharing and military cooperation with Mexico.” [The Wilson Center, 1/09, Washington Post, 3/22/09]

•Reducing U.S. demand:  The U.S. must take concrete steps to adjust its own drug policies to reduce domestic demand, which according to the RAND Corporation is five times more effective than traditional methods of law enforcement alone. [NSN, 2/26/09. Washington Post, 3/22/09. RAND, 2005]

 

What We’re Reading

President Barack Obama published an op-ed that appeared in 30 newspapers around the world on the need for a global solution to the economic crisis.

Violence in Iraq killed at least 32 on Monday, including at least 19 at a Kurdish funeral in Diyala Province.  A Kurdish rebel group, the PKK, rejected the calls of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, who is Kurdish, to cease fighting against Turkey and leave Iraq.

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and President Obama will meet today to discuss Afghanistan.

Protestors clashed with police, who fired tear gas, as far-right Israelis marched through the Israeli-Arab town of Umm al-Fahm.

Sunni militiamen from the Sons of Iraq are angry at Iraq for not delivering promised jobs.

Israel’s Likud party initialed a coalition agreement with Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s Labor party, nearing Israel to solidifying a new government.

A British court released details of a plea deal that the United States considered for Binyam Mohammed.

China urges the creation a new international currency reserve, controlled by the IMF, to replace the dollar.  In a climate of growing protectionism, South Korea and the EU near a free trade deal.

The United States decides to support Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen for NATO Secretary-General.  It must now get Turkey on board.

China reportedly blocked YouTube for hosting video of Chinese police beating Tibetans.

Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir travelled abroad for the first time since the ICC issued a warrant for his arrest.  An aid worker was shot and killed in Darfur.

Commentary of the Day

David Brooks writes from Afghanistan about the Afghan National Army.

Enrique Krauze says that the dire situation in Mexico has been exaggerated and that it is not close to becoming a “failed state.”

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette supports President Obama’s outreach to Iran, but says he needs to “watch his back in Washington.”  The Wall Street Journal looks at the strategic shift implied in President Obama’s New Year’s message to Iran.