The United States faces few greater challenges than Pakistan – a nuclear power with 170 million people, a weak government and a terrorist safe haven in its Northwest areas. In recent weeks, the government of President Asif Ali Zaradari has faced challenges both from its political opponent Nawaz Sharif and from a civil society movement demanding the reinstatement of Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, who had been deposed by former military ruler Pervez Musharraf. The crisis was defused when Zardari reversed his previous opposition and reinstated Chaudhry – marking a major victory for the independent judiciary and the rule of law. Particularly welcome was the positive role played by Washington, reversing the Bush Administration’s willingness to allow Musharraf and then Zardari to skirt the rule of law. However, the latest incident is another reminder of how dangerous and fragile Pakistan remains. To play a positive role and help stabilize Pakistan, the United States should work to strengthen Pakistani democracy, engage the region in diplomacy, condition security assistance, and increase development assistance.

Pakistan is undergoing a severe political crisis that was temporarily averted with the reinstatement of the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. For the last several weeks, Pakistan has been embroiled in a political crisis, resulting from mounting tensions between the government, led by President Asif Ali Zardari, and various opposition groups, led primarily by Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N). According to the New York Times, the crisis began when President Zardari “made what is generally considered a power grab on Feb. 25 when he dismissed the Punjab legislature and introduced federal executive rule. The president acted after the Supreme Court had disqualified Mr. Sharif and his brother, who is the chief minister of Punjab, from holding elective office.” Pakistan’s Supreme Court has been surrounded in controversy ever since former President Pervez Musharraf’s decision to dismiss several judges, including Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. “Mr. Sharif and Mr. Zardari fought over the future of Mr. Chaudhry until their coalition fell apart last September over what Mr. Sharif said was Mr. Zardari’s refusal to reinstate the chief justice.” This, along with the President’s actions in February drew “calls for Zardari's government to reinstate the fired judges and give up some of the wide-ranging presidential powers established by Musharraf.” “The events in Lahore showed the depths of resentment in Punjab against the national government, a dangerous signal for Mr. Zardari, said Jehangir Tareen, a legislator from Punjab in the national Parliament with a faction of the Pakistan Muslim League-N, Mr. Sharif’s party, and a cabinet member in the Musharraf government. ‘This shows the people resent the arbitrary action of the national government, and the fact that it has no respect for the mandate the people of Punjab gave to the PML.-N,’ Mr. Tareen said.” The turmoil also raised troubling speculation about military interference: “The army’s chief of staff, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, was widely reported to have met with Mr. Zardari and [Prime Minster] Gilani Sunday and urged a solution to the crisis. General Kayani has said he wants to keep the army out of politics, but there was renewed speculation about how long the patience of the army would hold.” In the face of this pressure, President Zardari issued an order, authorizing the reinstatement of Chief Justice Chaudhry,” and pledged a review of the powers that he inherited from Musharraf. [NY Times, 3/15/09. WSJ, 3/16/09. NY Times, 3/17/09]

Reinstatement of Pakistani Supreme Court Chief Justice strengthens rule of law in Pakistan. Though the broader ramifications of Pakistan’s political crisis remain uncertain, the reinstatement of Chief Justice Chaudhry is a victory for the rule of law in Pakistan, a cause supported by progressives and the Obama administration. As the New York Times reports, “It was a signal moment in Pakistan’s political development: A huge demonstration forced the restoration of a dismissed chief justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, a symbol of democracy and the rule of law. The army did not stage a coup, but insisted that the government accept a compromise.” The AP reported, “Lawyers and civil rights activists have remained committed to the cause of Chaudhry's reinstatement, believing it was a vital first step in getting an independent judiciary in Pakistan. The court system has often been abused by past rulers to cement their grip on power. ‘This is a victory for the people of this country,’ lawyer leader Baz Mohammad Kakar said after [the] announcement.” As one observer celebrating on the streets of Lahore explained, “Pakistan is changing, but the most important thing is what follows. This is just a first step.” [NY Times, 3/17/09. Washington Post, 3/17/09. AP, 3/16/09. LA Times, 3/16/09]

Obama administration meets an early test by playing the role of mediator, supporting democratic norms.  “In recent days, U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, had spoken to Zardari and Sharif, urging them to reach a deal. The U.S. Embassy in Islamabad issued a statement welcoming the move Monday. ‘This is a statesmanlike decision taken to defuse a serious confrontation, and the apparent removal of this long-standing national issue is a substantial step towards national reconciliation,’ the statement said. ‘Now is the time for all Pakistanis and their political representatives to work together, with the support of their friends and allies, to peacefully strengthen their democracy and ensure a positive dialogue as they move forward to deal with the many issues confronting them.’” This marks a stark contrast from the Bush years when US policy toward Pakistan hinged entirely on an alliance with General Pervez Musharraf, a policy, which, in the words of then-Senator Obama, “supported stability over democracy in Pakistan, and (got) neither.” Now, under the new Administration, the U.S. has changed gears, dealing with Pakistan in a manner that reflects the President’s commitment to the “full restoration of Pakistan's democracy and rule of law,” and to the pursuit of mutual security interests. [AP, 3/16/09. Senator Barack Obama, 3/19/08]

Though the crisis was averted for now, new questions emerge regarding U.S. strategy toward Pakistan. The Washington Post writes, “Pakistan's ongoing political crisis, the Obama administration's first real-time foreign policy emergency, threatens to upend a new Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy before it leaves the White House drawing board. Administration officials are putting the finishing touches on a plan to greatly increase economic and development assistance to Pakistan, and to expand a military partnership considered crucial to striking a mortal blow against al-Qaeda's leadership and breaking the Pakistani-based extremist networks that sustain the war in Afghanistan. Final recommendations on the new strategy may go to President Obama as early as Friday, officials said… But the weakness of Pakistan's elected government – backed into a corner by weekend demonstrations that left its political opposition strengthened – has called into question one of the basic pillars of that plan. ‘We understood from the beginning that the current government is not wildly popular,’ said a senior administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity so he could speak candidly. ‘If we're going to sustain a civilian government that can be a counterpart, we need one that has enough basis of support" to carry out the strong counterterrorism policies that are necessary.’” Similar concerns were also raised on Capitol Hill, where “[t]he administration plans to send Congress a supplemental 2009 appropriation, including aid to Pakistan, in the coming days, and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is putting the finishing touches on a long-term assistance proposal with a multibillion-dollar price tag… ‘There's a strong desire to do whatever we can to help Pakistan combat the Taliban and al-Qaeda,’ Leahy said. ‘But if Pakistan is in such a state of internal political turmoil that U.S. aid can't be used effectively, that's going to limit what can be done and also how successful we are in Afghanistan.’” [Washington Post, 3/17/09]

Pakistan’s future stability demands persistent, concerted action from the Obama administration. An Atlantic Council report recommends that the Obama administration take immediate steps to halt further deterioration, recommendations which are even more critical in the wake of Pakistan’s most recent political crisis. Among the steps are:

• Strengthen Pakistani democracy. “The U.S. must reinforce Pakistan’s efforts to strengthen democracy, engaging with political parties across the spectrum and supporting programs that strengthen political participation and civil society,” and expand “efforts to assist Pakistan in building institutions of democracy by expanding training opportunities for political party workers on organizing parties and conducting elections.” [The Atlantic Council, 2/25/09]
• Help build institutions. The U.S. should devote specific resources to the objectives of “mentoring, monitoring, and institution building” in Pakistan, “as poorly managed and executed efforts will result in significant waste of U.S. taxpayer dollars, as we have seen in other recent large-scale reconstruction efforts. Agreed targets and benchmarks should be set in consultation with Pakistan before aid is released.” [The Atlantic Council, 2/25/09]
• Increase non-military aid. “The new administration should support early passage of the Kerry/Lugar legislation that authorizes $1.5 billion a year over the next five years in non-military aid to Pakistan, and advocates an additional $7.5 billion over the following five years,” while also addressing the additional $5 billion Pakistan needs to “cover critical budget shortfalls.” [The Atlantic Council, 2/25/09]
• Place U.S. policy toward Pakistan in a “regional context.” Recognize the importance of “Pakistan’s relations with India, Turkey, China, Russia, Iran, the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, and Europe (EU and NATO), as well as the United Nations and bring them into discussions on future US policy and aid for Pakistan,” as well as expanding “[c]onfidence building measures between India and Pakistan.” [The Atlantic Council, 2/25/09]
• Provide military assistance that focuses on counterinsurgency. Instead of large arms systems that Islamabad trains on India, “[R]edirect security assistance to Pakistan for both army and paramilitary forces to improve their capacity for counterinsurgency warfare and fighting militancy, including the elimination of Al Qaeda bases and operations in Pakistan’s border region,” beginning with $1 billion “to better equip the Pakistan Army for counterinsurgency.” [The Atlantic Council, 2/25/09]

 

What We’re Reading

The U.S. weighs expanding drone strikes into Pakistan proper, beyond the tribal areas.

U.S. combat deaths in Iraq hit the lowest levels since the war began six years ago.

Russia signals interest in a deal with the U.S. to work on halting Iran’s nuclear program. Russian news agencies report, however, that a senior Russian defense official confirmed that Russia has a contract to sell air-defense missiles to Iran.

In response to Binyam Mohammad’s allegations, Britain will release new “no torture” rules for intelligence officers interrogating overseas detainees.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates prepares big cuts and restructuring in the Pentagon’s weapons portfolio, but he faces a fight with members of Congress whose districts will be affected by the cut.

The World Bank finds 17 major nations have erected protectionist trade barriers. The World Bank lowered its China growth forecast.

Former President George W. Bush gave his first speech since leaving office, in Canada. He spoke out against trade protectionism and said he hoped President Obama would succeed, adding “He deserves my silence, and if he wants my help he is welcome to call me.”

President Obama adds pressure to Sudan on Darfur, and appoints Maj. Gen. J. Scott Gration, a retired Air Force officer, as special envoy to Sudan.

North Korea refuses U.S. food aid.

In a Senate hearing, lawmakers say the U.S. deserves a share of the blame for Mexico’s drug violence.

Iran’s cheap goods hurt Iraq’s economy.

Reports of sexual assault by U.S. military personnel against fellow soldiers and civilians rose by 8% last year.

A Pentagon official warned of the risk of cyber attacks.

 

Commentary of the Day

AIG CEO Edward M. Liddy defends himself and AIG in the Washington Post.

The LA Times looks at Pakistan’s bigger problems and the rivalry between President Zardari and Nawaz Sharif.

Stephanie Cooke argues that energy reform cannot occur unless the nuclear portfolio is removed from the Department of Energy, including both weapons-related and energy-related nuclear projects.

Lily Burana, a military wife, discusses military privacy and applauds the Pentagon’s decision to lift the ban on photos and video of returning caskets at the family’s discretion.