3/2/09

President Obama’s plan to end the war keeps the promise that he made throughout the campaign to withdraw American combat forces, redefine the mission to focus on training and counterterrorism, and send a clear message to the Iraqis and the world that America’s troop presence in Iraq is coming to an end.  But it also sends two larger messages.  First, it represents the end of a militarized, Iraq-centric foreign policy.  The plan presented last week balances the risks of withdrawing forces against the other national security risks we face.  It also foresees a comprehensive approach.  After years of our armed services telling political leaders, in vain, that Iraq’s problems require political rather than military solutions, Obama’s team today begins interagency reviews to develop comprehensive strategies to help resolve Iraq’s internal political conflicts and engage Iraq’s neighbors in helping stabilize the country. 

Second, Obama has built a remarkable consensus around his campaign plan to redeploy forces – reinforced by the efforts of prominent conservatives such as Randy Scheunemann and Doug Feith, who for years argued for an unending and unlimited commitment to Iraq, to claim this plan as their own.  This suggests that a consensus around Obama’s broader foreign policy goals is well within reach.

Consensus emerging around progressive plan for Iraq.  From the 2005 Center for American Progress call for “strategic redeployment,” to then-Senator Obama’s pledge for “phased withdrawal,” progressives worked for years to change US Iraq policy along these lines.  Apart from a 2-month difference in his timeline for withdrawing combat troops, Obama’s announced strategy largely adheres to his campaign promise, and includes a firm commitment to withdraw all troops from Iraq by 2011. Conservatives who vilified the same plan last year – even as pressure at home and from Iraqis moved the Bush Administration in the same direction – now praise it.  Former John McCain foreign policy advisor Randy Scheunemann praised Obama’s approach, and Senator McCain himself reportedly found it “thoughtful and well prepared.”  [BarackObama.com, Iraq Policy. CAP, 9/29/05. NY Times, 2/28/09. Washington Post, 3/1/09. NY Times, 2/27/09]

Obama administration places Iraq within broader foreign policy context.  In his speech before the Marines assembled at Camp Lejeune, Obama articulated the broader strategic context: “This reflects a fundamental truth: we can no longer deal with regional challenges in isolation – we need a smarter, more sustainable and comprehensive approach. That is why we are renewing our diplomacy, while relieving the burden on our military. That is why we are refocusing on al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan; developing a strategy to use all elements of American power to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon; and actively seeking a lasting peace between Israel and the Arab world. And that is why we have named three of America’s most accomplished diplomats – George Mitchell, Dennis Ross and Richard Holbrooke – to support Secretary Clinton and me as we carry forward this agenda.”  On Meet the Press this weekend, Secretary of Defense Gates discussed the process behind the President’s decision, saying “there was a lot of analysis of the risks that were involved,” and pointing out that the Joint Chiefs took into account not just the risk of withdrawal, but the broader risks, including “strain on the force” and “the need for additional forces in Afghanistan.”  Gates concluded that “this really was the product of a dialogue between the president and the chiefs and the commanders.” [President Obama, 2/27/09. Robert Gates, 3/1/09]

Obama moves to put in place a comprehensive approach, recognizing the need to address political and diplomatic challenges.  The policy moves beyond a primarily military focus to make use of diplomacy and political reconciliation as well.  In his speech last Friday, President Obama said, “As we responsibly remove our combat brigades, we will pursue the second part of our strategy: sustained diplomacy on behalf of a more peaceful and prosperous Iraq.” He forcefully said, that “a strong political, diplomatic, and civilian effort on our part can advance progress and help lay a foundation for lasting peace and security.”  As Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, the only hold-over between the two administrations, said this weekend, “I think we have, have had a significant success on the military side.  There is still--the political side is still a work in progress in Iraq.”  In fact, starting this week the administration will be conducting interagency reviews to deal with the questions of how the U.S. can assist political reconciliation in Iraq and how it can work with Iraq’s neighbors to leave behind a stable Iraq.  [Barack Obama, 2/27/09. Robert Gates, 3/1/09]

What We’re Reading

New documents show that the CIA destroyed nearly 100 terror interrogation tapes, far more than previously disclosed.

AIG posted historic losses.  Global markets fall.  The Dow opened below 7,000 for the first time since 1997.  Consumer spending rose unexpectedly.

The Ukraine struggles with unrest due to the economic crisis.  The EU held an emergency summit on the financial crisis on Sunday, rejecting aid to Eastern Europe and underscoring division within Europe.

Secretary of State Clinton goes to Israel tomorrow.  The U.S. will provide $300 million in humanitarian aid to Gaza.  Outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is likely to face charges in the corruption case against him.  An anti-settlement group claims that Israel plans to build at least 73,000 new homes for Jews in the West Bank.

Admiral Mullen says that Iran has enough nuclear material for a bomb but Defense Secretary Gates argued that Iran was “not close” to a nuclear weapon.  A Hollywood delegation met with Iranian counterparts in Tehran.  Iran arrested an Iranian-American radio reporter.

Renegade soldiers assassinated the president of Guinea-Bissau, hours after a bomb killed his main rival.  The military said no coup is underway.

The U.S. and China held positive military talks.  U.N.-North Korean talks lasted only 32 minutes but were deemed positive.

Gates said that the U.S. was ready to increase military assistance to Mexico amid rampant drug related violence.  A landmark gun trial against dealers who knowingly supplied guns to drug cartels in Mexico opens in Arizona.

Bangladesh issued arrest warrants for 1,000 border guard mutineers who killed about 140 officers.

Hundreds of Iraqi Shiites protested the election results in Diyala province, alleging fraud.

India announced dates for general elections in April and May.

A raid in Afghanistan raises civilian outrage.

Blackwater’s founder and CEO resigns.

Debate heats up over U.S. policies towards Cuba.

Commentary of the Day

Fareed Zakaria examines the Swat valley truce and urges distinguishing between extreme and violent Islam.

John Dempsey and Alex Thier look at leadership in Afghanistan as the key to fighting insurgency.

John Bolton thinks that direct talks with Iran will facilitate threats to U.S. interests.

Roger Cohen hits back at critics of his column on Iranian Jews.