2/25/09

Today the Atlantic Council released the report of a commission co-chaired by Chuck Hagel and John Kerry that found that “we are running out of time to help Pakistan change its present course toward increasing economic and political instability, and even ultimate failure.” Pakistan’s volatile tribal belt has become a safe haven for a reconstituted Al Qaeda and a growing Taliban insurgency. Ambassador Richard Holbrooke explained on Charlie Rose, “there is no way that the international effort in Afghanistan can succeed unless Pakistan can get its western tribal areas under control.” The Pakistani Taliban has begun making serious incursions outside of the tribal belt into formerly stable regions of Pakistan, and terrorist attacks continue to plague the country. But the Pakistani state is under threat not just from a growing insurgency, but from tremendous political and economic instability as well. The democratic government remains weak and the Pakistani economy teeters on the brink of default. To help stabilize Pakistan, the Atlantic Council recommends working to strengthen Pakistani democracy, engaging the region, conditioning security assistance, and increasing development assistance.

There are few greater challenges to the Obama administration than Pakistan.  Pakistan’s importance to the U.S. is hard to overstate. “Pakistan, the world’s sixth-most-populous country and second-biggest Muslim one, is violent and divided. A Taliban insurgency is spreading in its north-west frontier region, fuelled partly by a similar Pushtun uprising against NATO and American troops in Afghanistan,” reported the Economist.  In addition, a regenerated Al Qaeda network, a resurgent Taliban, and almost certainly Osama Bin Laden are all inside Pakistan’s borders, and America’s 16 intelligence agencies agree that al-Qaeda central, planning from its safe haven in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), poses the “most serious terrorist threat to the Homeland.”  And last year, a fledgling civilian government emerged from the collapse of the Musharraf regime, but still struggles to govern.  The presence of extremists, the government’s instability, and the past role of rogue Pakistani elements in spreading nuclear technology, make the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal a great concern for the U.S.  As reported in the Atlantic Council’s new report on Pakistan, the country “faces dire economic and security threats that threaten both the existence of Pakistan as a democratic and stable state and the region as a whole. Given the tools and the financing, Pakistan can turn back from the brink. But for that to happen, it needs help now. Such a reversal demands far greater and more urgent support and assistance from the international community in general and the United States in particular.” [The Economist, 2/19/09. NIE, 7/07. The Atlantic Council, 2/25/09]

Multiple crises now threaten the Pakistani state.  Over the last year, Pakistan has slipped further into instability, with multiple flashpoints threatening to unravel any chance for progress.  Pakistani Taliban incursions into Swat Valley, a former tourist enclave, prompted the government to agree to a “long-term ceasefire” with the militants, in return for allowing a system of governance there based on Islamic law.  While some welcomed the agreement, it was “criticized by Pakistani analysts as a capitulation by a government desperate to stop Taliban abuses and a military embarrassed at losing ground after more than a year of intermittent fighting.”  Attacks on NATO-ISAF convoys, which must first pass through Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas en route to Afghanistan, have also increased in recent months.  At the beginning of February, “NATO's main supply route through the Khyber Pass in the northwest,” was “severed after the Taliban destroyed a vital bridge,” on the route to Afghanistan.  Militants are also growing stronger along Pakistan’s border with India, evidenced by last November’s tragic terrorist attack in Mumbai by Pakistani group Lashkar-e-Taiba.  The attack caused “heightened tensions between India and Pakistan,” which not only emerged as a “potential stumbling block,” for the U.S., but threatened to engulf the region in war.  But Pakistan’s challenges extend far beyond security to the political and economic realms.  Last October, Pakistan sought and received an “emergency bail-out from the International Monetary Fund, a humiliating step forced on Islamabad after allies refused to come up with cash to prevent the country going bust.”  Its economy still teeters on the brink of collapse, and the government indicated “that it would seek more funding” to stave off “growing economic pressures.”  Finally, tensions continue to grow between Pakistan’s ruling PPP party, led by Asif Ali Zardari, and the opposition PML-N led by Nawaz Sharif, with today’s Pakistan Supreme Court ruling which bars Sharif from elected office.  “The long-awaited decisions will deepen a growing rift between Sharif, one of the country's most popular politicians who heads its largest opposition grouping, and the pro-Western coalition government under President Asif Ali Zardari,” reported the AP. [NY Times, 2/24/09. NY Times, 2/17/09. Long War Journal, 2/03/09.  NY Times, 2/14/09. The Guardian, 10/23/08. Financial Times, 2/20/09. AP, 2/25/09]

Concerted, immediate action from the Obama administration is necessary to preserve stability.  The new Atlantic Council report recommends that the Obama administration take immediate steps to halt further deterioration.  Among the steps are:

• “The U.S. must reinforce Pakistan’s efforts to strengthen democracy, engaging with political parties across the spectrum and supporting programs that strengthen political participation and civil society,” and expand “efforts to assist Pakistan in building institutions of democracy by expanding training opportunities for political party workers on organizing parties and conducting elections.” [The Atlantic Council, 2/25/09]
• Place U.S. policy toward Pakistan in a “regional context” that recognizes “Pakistan’s relations with India, Turkey, China, Russia, Iran, the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, and Europe (EU and NATO), as well as the United Nations and bring them into discussions on future US policy and aid for Pakistan,” as well as expanding “[c]onfidence building measures between India and Pakistan.” [The Atlantic Council, 2/25/09]
• “[R]edirect security assistance to Pakistan for both army and paramilitary forces to improve their capacity for counterinsurgency warfare and fighting militancy, including the elimination of Al Qaeda bases and operations in Pakistan’s border region,” beginning with $1 billion “to better equip the Pakistan Army for counterinsurgency.” [The Atlantic Council, 2/25/09]
• The new administration should support early passage of the Kerry/Lugar legislation that authorizes $1.5 billion a year over the next five years in non-military aid to Pakistan, and advocates an additional $7.5 billion over the following five years,” while also addressing the additional $5 billion Pakistan needs to “cover critical budget shortfalls.” [The Atlantic Council, 2/25/09]
• The U.S. should devote specific resources to the objectives of “mentoring, monitoring, and institution building” in Pakistan, “as poorly managed and executed efforts will result in significant waste of U.S. taxpayer dollars, as we have seen in other recent large-scale reconstruction efforts. Agreed targets and benchmarks should be set in consultation with Pakistan before aid is released.” [The Atlantic Council, 2/25/09]

What We’re Reading

President Obama addressed a joint session of Congress, primarily discussing the economic crisis. On Friday he’s expected to announce his withdrawal plan for Iraq.

U.S. soldiers in Mosul were attacked by Iraqis wearing police uniforms.  One U.S. soldier was reportedly killed.

Iran successfully completed tests on its first nuclear power plant.

European diplomats quote a Syrian official saying that Syria has built a missile facility on the site of a possible nuclear reactor that Israel bombed in 2007.

Japan’s exports fell 46% in January, to the lowest figure in ten years.

China is suffering from the worst drought in more than fifty years.

A Somali Islamist group with ties to al-Qaeda captured another town.

Border guards launched a mutiny in Bangladesh.

A Kurdish lawmaker in Turkey gave a speech in Turkish parliament in Kurdish, breaking taboos and the law.

Palestine looks for $2.8 billion in foreign aid to rebuild Gaza.

A U.N.-sponsored war crimes court is expected to deliver verdicts today on charges of crimes against humanity for Sierra Leone rebel commanders.

Commentary of the Day

The Economist looks at Dennis Ross and the Obama administration’s Iran strategy.

Doyle McManus discusses the rhetoric of Obama’s speech.  Bobby Jindal’s response disappointed Democrats and Republicans.

The Washington Post interviews Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso.