2/12/09

As President Obama met with Secretary Gates to discuss the possibility of troop increases in Afghanistan, events underscored the terrible hand that the Bush administration dealt the new President.  Rather than focus on Afghanistan, where the 9-11 attacks were plotted and where their planners took refuge, President Bush became distracted by Iraq.  The resulting downward spiral is now the problem of the Obama Administration.  Yesterday’s brazen attack by the Taliban in Kabul, which killed at least 20 people, was the latest example of the deteriorating security situation.  At the same time, the GAO released a report finding that the Bush administration did not properly account for the flow of hundreds of thousands of weapons into Afghanistan and that many of these may now be in the hands of America’s enemies.  Meanwhile, senior Obama administration officials were dispatched to Moscow to try and prevent the closure of a key military supply base in Kyrgyzstan – the fruit of years of missed signals and mishandled relationships in Russia and Central Asia..  Ultimately, it will be up to Obama and his team to develop a clear, comprehensive and realistic strategy for Afghanistan.  But the best strategy will be dogged by the eight years of neglect and mishandling that came before it.

Startling attacks in Kabul demonstrate grave deterioration of security and Bush administration’s lack of attention.  Yesterday’s Taliban attacks on two Afghan Government Ministry offices and a prison installation speak to the overall deterioration in Afghanistan’s security. The New York Times reported that “suicide bombers and Taliban gunmen struck government buildings at three sites in Kabul on Wednesday, killing at least 20 people and wounding 57. It was a complex and highly organized attack that demonstrated the ease with which the insurgents could penetrate even a heavily fortified place like Kabul.”  Sadly, there have long been signs that such an attack was a possibility.  An October report by journalist Nir Rosen found that midlevel Taliban leaders could “move freely about the capital, like any other Afghan: U.S. forces lack the intelligence and manpower to identify enemy commanders, let alone apprehend them.”  Even more troubling was the apparent confusion of Afghan Security Forces during the attacks.  At one point, security forces including, police, army, and intelligence officers, sought instruction over how to deal with an attacker who had surrounded himself with women and children, but their commanders seemed indecisive about what action to take.  One commander asked, “What should we do?”  Another replied, “Shoot him!”  The attacks and the ensuing confusion shed light on what has for years been a growing problem, but one left unaddressed by the Bush administration.  A June Government Accountability Office (GAO) report found that under the Bush administration, “the Departments of Defense and State have not yet developed a coordinated, detailed plan for completing and sustaining the ANSF.”  Sadly, this oversight typified the administration’s approach to the region.  According to experts on the region Barnett Rubin and Ahmed Rashid, the Bush Administration “never reevaluated its strategic priorities in the region after September 11,” and the President himself only traveled to Afghanistan twice – visiting the country for the first time in 2006..  [NY Times, 2/12/09. Rolling Stone, 10/30/08. GAO, June 2008. Foreign Affairs, November/December 2008. Huffington Post, 7/15/08]

GAO report finds that Bush administration kept poor control over flow of arms into Afghanistan, which are likely now being used against American troops.  The Washington Post reported that according to a new GAO assessment, during the Bush administration, the Pentagon failed to oversee the implementation of proper controls over the flow of tens of thousands of small arms into Afghanistan. “The audit by the Government Accountability Office found that inventory controls were lacking for more than a third of the 242,000 light weapons donated to Afghan forces by the United States -- a stockpile that includes thousands of AK-47 assault rifles as well as mortars, machine guns and rocket-propelled grenade launchers.  There were no reliable records showing what ultimately happened to an additional 135,000 weapons donated by other NATO countries, the report said. Many of the weapons, supplied between 2004 and 2008, were left in the care of Afghan-run military depots with a history of desertion, theft and sub-par security systems that sometimes consist of a wooden door and a padlock, the report said.  The lax controls extended even to such sensitive equipment as night-vision goggles, which have long given U.S. troops a critical edge in fighting Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan's rugged terrain, the GAO found. Basic accounting procedures such as recording serial numbers were routinely skipped, placing millions of dollars of weapons ‘at serious risk of theft or loss,’ said the GAO report, which is expected to be presented today to a House oversight panel.”  [Washington Post, 2/12/09]

Bush administration’s poor record towards Central Asia and Russia complicate Obama administration’s policies towards Afghanistan.  The Bush Administration failed to understand Russia’s resurgence or send clear signals about how the US would respond. Instead, for the last eight years the Bush administration pursued a misplaced approach founded on the personal relationship between President Bush and Putin. This approach has failed. Now the US faces a steep challenge with few good options.  This narrow policy has had serious consequences for key U.S. supply lines into Afghanistan.  “Last week, the president of Kyrgyzstan announced during a trip to Moscow that his Central Asian country would close a U.S. military base on its territory that provides a vital supply link to U.S. and NATO forces in next-door Afghanistan.  The Obama administration is now sending two of America’s top diplomats “to hold talks with senior Russian officials to better understand the link that Washington says exists between the Kyrgyz government's decision to end the U.S. lease of the Manas air base and a Russian offer of $2 billion in aid for Kyrgyzstan.”  And in fact, the issues around the Manas air base have been mishandled for years.   Central Asia scholar Alexander Cooley explains the Bush policies that lead to the base closing in Kyrgyzstan in The International Herald Tribune, “Since its establishment in the fall of 2001, the U.S. air base at Manas has been founded upon the granting of narrow economic incentives to the host country - and not on the Kyrgyz Republic's commitment to the broader international campaign in Afghanistan. What began as a relationship based on economics is about to end for financial reasons.”  Cooley goes on to describe how the high level of financial support went to the Kyrgyz regime off-budget, with no checks or accountability, in exchange for its cooperation.  He concludes: “In Kyrgyzstan, the price of access for Manas has reached a level that is unacceptable, even for the world's only remaining superpower. But the Kyrgyz did not invent the rules of this bargaining game, they merely followed them to their logical conclusion.” [International Herald Tribune, 2/10/09. Washington Times, 2/12/09]

What We’re Reading

A Pakistani official acknowledged for the first time that the November Mumbai attacks were partly planned in Pakistan.

In Israel, consensus may be forming around an equal-footing coalition government between Kadima and Likud, with Binyamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister and excluding Israel Beiteinu and Avigdor Lieberman.

Lawyers for British Guantanamo detainee Binyam Mohammed faxed a letter to President Obama, asking him to review the case and alleging “medieval” torture over two years.  British officials prepare to visit Mohammed, who is on a hunger strike, to prepare him for a possible return to British custody.

Iran’s foreign minister visits Iraq, says no new security talks needed due to the improved security situation.  Reform presidential candidate Mohammad Khatami sharply criticized President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad over Iran’s international isolation.

The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, the first such warrant against a sitting head of state.

U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rebounded and jobless claims fell, though by less than expected and amid signs that laid-off workers are having trouble finding new jobs.

Russian and U.S. satellites collided in space, spraying debris that might affect the space station.

Commentary of the Day

Gordon Adams argues that increasing the defense budget won’t stimulate the economy.

Roger Cohen recounts conversations with ordinary Iranians, encouraging the U.S. to “think again about Iran.”

Joseph Sternberg criticizes the “Buy American” provision in the stimulus bill and advocates free trade, particularly with Korea.

Fareed Zakaria discusses Canada’s strong economy: the banking system was rated the healthiest in the world in 2008, has not experienced a single failure or bailout, and is thriving in the financial crisis.

S.D. Liddick describes hitchhiking through Anbar province, Iraq.