2/10/09

The situation in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region continues to deteriorate, with news in the last week of more attacks on American and NATO supply routes from Pakistan and the Kyrgyz government’s decision to close a key American air base.  Meanwhile, leading American policymakers including Richard Holbrooke, General David Petraeus, and Senator John Kerry have all warned of the increasingly difficult situation with Holbrooke stating that it will likely be “much tougher than Iraq.”  

It is critical that we have a clear strategy that includes measureable and realistic objectives, and President Obama’s decision to delay the announcement of additional troops into Afghanistan until we have a focused strategy is the right approach.  This strategy must focus first and foremost on preventing the Afghanistan–Pakistan region from becoming a staging ground for terrorist attacks against the U.S. and other nations or a source for instability that could throw Pakistan into chaos.  To achieve this goal we need a comprehensive approach that focuses not just on military means but on economic development and civilian capacity as well.  The strategy must help Afghans build a government that can satisfy basic economic and security requirements of its citizens, without which Al Qaeda safe havens provided by the Taliban will never be eliminated.  The strategy must also be regional in scope and include greater engagement with Pakistan’s civilian government as well as with Iran, Russia and other regional players.  

Conditions in Afghanistan and Pakistan are deteriorating.  Supply lines into Afghanistan are coming under greater threat even as the government of Kyrgyzstan, under Russian pressure, announced the closure of a key American base.  “Last week, the president of Kyrgyzstan announced during a trip to Moscow that his Central Asian country would close a U.S. military base on its territory that provides a vital supply link to U.S. and NATO forces in next-door Afghanistan.” The supply situation is especially dire in the Khyber Pass region.  Last week “Supplies intended for NATO forces in Afghanistan were suspended ...  after Taliban militants blew up a highway bridge in the Khyber Pass region, a lawless northwestern tribal area straddling the border with Afghanistan… More than 80 percent of the supplies for American and coalition forces in Afghanistan flow through Pakistan. Attacks aimed at choking the supply lines have become increasingly frequent and brazen, despite the presence of Pakistani security forces in the area.”  Another troubled Pakistani region is the Swat Valley, which is not in the tribal areas but Pakistan proper.  The region “has been in the grip of a bloody insurgency by Islamic militants... Since the insurgency began the civilian population has increasingly become a target of both sides.”  “Pakistan has deployed a large number of army and paramilitary troops to try to contain them. Hundreds of people have been killed in the fighting. The past few weeks have been the worst.” Suicide and roadside bombings have also become more commonplace and effective.  Just last week, “A man wrapped in explosives walked into a compound filled with Afghan police officers on Monday morning and detonated his payload, killing 21 officers and himself. … As security has tightened against suicide attackers, the Taliban has turned to roadside bombs; in 2008, the number of attacks was double that in 2007.” [Washington Post, 2/8/09. NY Times, 2/3/09. NY Times, 2/02/09. BBC, 1/06/09]

Key U.S. officials involved in Afghanistan policy have given grim assessments of the way forward in the region.  Over the last few days, officials intimately involved with addressing the crises in Afghanistan and Pakistan have warned that tough times lie ahead.  "NATO's future is on the line here," said special representative Richard Holbrooke to attendees at the international security conference in Munich over the weekend. "It's going to be a long, difficult struggle. . . . In my view, it's going to be much tougher than Iraq," continued Holbrooke.  According to CentCom commander General David Petraeus, Afghanistan “has deteriorated markedly in the past two years,” a result of worsening security, increasing corruption and high levels of opium trafficking, among other things. In an op-ed this morning, Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, Senator John Kerry cautioned: “[w]e shouldn't delude ourselves into thinking that we are in anything but a race against time in a region suspicious of foreign footprints.”  [Washington Post, 2/09/09. Washington Post, 2/10/09.]

There must be a clear, comprehensive strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan , targeted at achieving identifiable goals.  “US reinforcements to Afghanistan are awaiting a green light from the White House, which wants to get a better grip on its strategy before sending more troops, US defense officials said Monday,” as the U.S. must have a clear plan, based on measurable objectives, for achieving its strategic goals, before deepening its commitments in the Afghanistan – Pakistan region.  There is a broad consensus around the main objective of preventing the Afghanistan – Pakistan region from becoming a staging ground for terrorist attacks against the U.S. and other nations or a source for instability that could throw Pakistan into chaos.  Several principles are central for achieving these objectives.  First, without an Afghan government that can satisfy some basic economic and security requirements, the Al Qaeda safe havens provided by the Taliban will never be eliminated.  Second, as Secretary Gates recently commented, “there is no purely military solution in Afghanistan.”  Following from that, any strategy must be comprehensive in nature, involving efforts to address Afghanistan’s unique challenges, including corruption, low-levels of development and a drug trade that feeds the insurgency.  Third any strategy must also focus on alleviating the problems of terrorist safe havens and a decaying civil state in Pakistan, which are inextricably linked to matters in Afghanistan, a point made by top Afghan and counter-insurgency experts who testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last week.  Fourth, the surrounding countries have a stake in Afghanistan’s and Pakistan’s stability; it is an encouraging sign that Obama “has ordered up a plan for diplomatic outreach to Iran and others in the region."  Finally, in the words of Vice President Biden, the U.S. strategy must focus on goals that are “clear and achievable,” to avoid the types of mission creep the U.S. can ill afford. [The Times, 2/08/09. Secretary of Defense Gates, 1/27/09. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Hearing, 2/05/09. Washington Post, 2/04/09. Vice President Joe Biden, 2/07/09]

What We’re Reading

Israelis vote in legislative elections today.  Polls indicate a tight race.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that Iran was ready for dialogue with the U.S. if it is based on “mutual respect.”

French President Nicolas Sarkozy visited Baghdad, the first visit to Iraq by a leader of a state that refused to join the “coalition of the willing” in 2003.

A suicide bombing in Mosul, Iraq, killed four U.S. soldiers and an interpreter, the deadliest single loss in nine months.  A suicide bombing in southeastern Afghanistan killed two NATO troops.

The Obama administration used the same legal defense of “state secrets” that the Bush administration used in an ongoing rendition case in San Francisco, but the Justice department also stated that officials would “review all assertions of state secret privilege to ensure that it is being invoked only in legally appropriate situations.”

The Taliban’s entrenchment in Quetta, in northern Pakistan, raises questions about U.S. strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistani involvement with the Taliban.

OPEC nations collective placed 35 oil-drilling projects on indefinite hold until oil prices rise again.

Commentary of the Day

Alex Perry looks at how Muammar Gadhafi is shaking up Africa, and argues that his ideas deserve consideration.

Israeli President Shimon Peres advocates a two-state solution to the Israeli-Arab conflict, and responds to Muammar Gadhafi’s one-state proposal last month.

Senator John Kerry examines the challenges in Afghanistan, but argues that success is still possible with renewed commitments.

Anne Applebaum makes the case for focusing on creating a strong Afghan army.

Gideon Rachman writes that “only Obama offers change for Israel.”