2/9/09

This year’s Munich Security Conference saw a change in tone from Americans and Europeans alike, as US leaders pledged to forge a new cooperative relationship and Europeans reciprocated appreciatively. This was in stark contrast to six years before when Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld divided Europe between “old” and “new” in the run up to the Iraq war, and then-German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer responded with a sharp “we are not convinced.”  The new tone struck by Vice President Biden and other senior American officials represents the first step in forging a new relationship – but after eight years of estrangement, challenges on substance lie ahead. The war in Afghanistan has grown increasingly unpopular among European publics, making it politically difficult for Europe’s leaders to send more troops. On other strategic challenges such as Russia, Iran, and the future of NATO the U.S. and Europe – and Europeans themselves – do not always see eye to eye, making any effort to forge a common approach exceptionally challenging. Over the last eight years the U.S. and Europe also got used to not working closely together on important international issues. Therefore where the United States and Europe have the same objectives, such as climate change, the global financial crisis, and maintaining warm trade relations there will be differences over how to proceed.

A new tone is struck by the United States, and allies reciprocate. The Associated Press concluded that “Vice President Joe Biden hit most of the right notes in his Munich speech this weekend, declaring — among a long list of initiatives — Washington's readiness to push the ‘reset button’ with Russia, talk with rather than browbeat Iran and revitalize the bruised NATO alliance.” The Deutsche Welle commented, “Biden's speech convinced every last doubter that the new US administration sees Europe as more than a pile of opinionated countries in which only a few qualify as loyal allies” Additionally, NPR noted that there was a shift among European leaders as well. “In recent years, European leaders at the annual Munich Security Conference have roundly criticized American foreign policy. This year, things were different. Vice President Joe Biden's speech on Saturday unveiled a new caring, consulting and listening U.S. administration, promising sweeping changes in American foreign policy.” [Deutsche Welle, 2/9/09. AP, 2/9/09. NPR, 2/9/09]
 
With atmospherics improved, stiff divisions remain:  on Afghanistan, despite calls among American and some European leaders for renewed commitments to Afghanistan… Refocusing on Afghanistan is a central tenet of Obama’s foreign policy.  However, “this requires more combat capability and key NATO countries - France and Germany notably - have been unwilling to commit significantly to the frontline. Even Britain, which is already engaged in ‘heavy lifting’, might not send as many reinforcements as the Americans want.” At this weekend’s NATO Security Conference in Munich, this difference among allies over the key challenge it faces was apparent.  As the BBC reports, “America has long been pushing its NATO allies to increase their troop numbers in Afghanistan and UK Defence Secretary John Hutton raised the need for ‘burden-sharing’, without naming any particular nation. ‘Combat forces, that is a most precious contribution right now to that campaign,’ he said. ‘We kid ourselves if we imagine that other contributions are as important.’”  This is not a new problem.  Secretary Gates has repeatedly  asked America’s allies for greater troop commitments to the NATO mission in Afghanistan, including at last year’s Munich Security Conference.[BBC, 1/26/09. BBC, 2/08/09. NPR, 6/12/08. IHT, 10/8/08. Seattle Times, 2/11/08]

… on Russia, where a common US-EU approach is crucial, and elusive… At the Security Conference this weekend, Vice President Biden recognized the need for the U.S. and Europe to readdress their positions on Russia, saying “The United States rejects the notion that NATO’s gain is Russia’s loss, or that Russia’s strength is NATO’s weakness.  The last few years have seen a dangerous drift in relations between Russia and the members of our Alliance.  It is time to press the reset button and to revisit the many areas where we can and should work together.”  Russia responded favorably to this new approach. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei said “‘The U.S. sent a very strong signal, and the signal was heard... It’s obvious the new U.S. administration has a very strong desire to change, and we're ready to cooperate with this administration on all levels.’” However, significant challenges remain in forging a common U.S.-European approach vis-à-vis Russia. The Guardian describes the allies’ divided positions on Russia, saying “The Kremlin has decades of practice in seeking to divide the Europeans from the Americans and the Europeans among themselves. Among 27 EU states, the perceptions of and vested interests in Russia are extremely varied. Ask the Portuguese prime minister what he thinks of Russia and you get a homily on Tolstoy and Dostoevsky and the glories of Russian civilisation. Ask the Polish prime minister and civilisation is the last thing he talks about. Instead you get a lecture on 200 years of bullying, treachery, and brute force. Trying to reconcile such divergent interests and points of view is a tall order. Trying to develop a common policy risks descending into vapid lowest-common-denominator emptiness.”  [Joseph Biden, 2/7/09. Washington Post, 2/8/09. WS Journal, 2/8/09. The Guardian, 9/3/08. Harvard International Review, Fall 2008.

… and on a variety of other issues, Europe and the United States will face challenges in forging a common approach.

• Iran: On relations with Iran, tensions may arise over sanctions. Dennis Ross “has long argued that the United States must persuade America’s European allies to increase economic pressure against Iran,” something that Europe has been reticent to do. [NY Times, 2/03/09]
• Future of NATO: The New York Times reports, “Most [Davos] participants agreed that the 60-year-old alliance faced a twin practical and intellectual challenge: practical results in Afghanistan and a long-term vision. But there was little agreement on what such a future vision should be. One participant said that NATO should focus on its one-for-all/all-for-one philosophy as articulated in Article 5 of its founding charter and not enlarge too fast. Another said that on the contrary, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, already operating out of its area, should go more global in its membership as well and become the military arm of the United Nations whenever the world body could not intervene. A third wanted to make it a community of values and democracies, while a fourth suggested regional NATO satellites.” [NY Times, 1/30/09]
• Climate Change: In addressing climate change, “the European Commission said the US needed to join a carbon market if it was going to raise the huge sums needed for combating climate change.” Under the plan, rich nations have to raise $321 billion by 2020 for clean technologies and additional tens of billions to help poor nations to adapt to climate change. “More than half of that cash would go to developing countries...Without that inducement to poor countries there would be no new global climate agreement at the UN climate summit in Copenhagen in December.” Yet forging a common approach will be complex and will require extensive negotiations not just with the Europeans but with members of the House and Senate. [BBC, 1/28/09]
• Trade: In the current financial environment, countries’ trade relations may worsen. The Wall Street Journal says, “Countries grappling with global recession have enacted a wave of barriers to world commerce since early last month, scrambling to safeguard their key industries -- often by damaging those of their neighbors... The European Union has warned the U.S. that proposed ‘Buy American’ provisions in planned stimulus spending could break trade rules. Meanwhile, EU nations have reversed direction and tightened their own trade rules.” [WS Journal, 2/6/08]  
• Detainees: Following President Obama's pledge to close the Guantanamo Bay detention center “Foreign ministers from the 27 members of the European Union met in Brussels to discuss possible ways to resettle Guantanamo prisoners.”  The EU’s foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, said "This is an American problem that they have to solve, but we’ll be ready to help if necessary.  Whenever they ask for help, I think the European answer will be ‘Yes.’” However the EU members states remain divided over how to proceed, or even whether they should help at all.  In its meeting, the EU “stopped short of making specific promises to give inmates new homes in Europe,” with few countries eager to take prisoners from US custody.  [Washington Post, 1/27/09]

What We’re Reading

Israel enters the final day of campaigning before tomorrow’s legislative elections. The far-right appears to be gaining.  Israel launches new airstrikes on Gaza.

Former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami officially declared his candidacy for president in the June elections.

Richard Holbrooke arrives in Pakistan today to begin a tour of the region of his responsibilities.  Holbrooke said at a European security conference yesterday that Afghanistan will be “much tougher than Iraq.”  Holbrooke also looks to engage Iran to fight Afghanistan’s drug trade.

Afghans and local police killed two Taliban fighters in retaliation for the killing of a local politician.  A new BBC/ABC poll finds that the Afghan people are “losing confidence” in the direction their country is taking.

A Mexican general working for the mayor of Cancun against the drug cartels was kidnapped and killed after a week on the job.

Kazakhstan will allow the U.S. to ship non-military aid over its territory to Afghanistan.  If now-delayed legislation is passed, the U.S. will have six months to move out of the critical Manas airbase in Kyrgyzstan.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev begins to move away from Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

A videotape appears to show the execution of a Polish engineer kidnapped in Pakistan.

A female suicide bomber killed 28 in Sri Lanka.

Australia fights deadly wildfires that have already killed 135 people.

Commentary of the Day

Marjorie Miller travels to Gaza and conducts post-war interviews with Israeli and Palestinian leaders and schoolchildren.

Richard Cohen looks at the how Iran could possibly embrace change.

Michael Leeden explains the shifting dynamics in Iran.