1/26/09

Today President Obama took an important first step in addressing the threats of global warming and oil dependence by giving states more power to limit greenhouse emissions from cars and also beginning the process of raising fuel efficiency standards.  These steps are important not just for our economy and the well being of our planet but for America’s national security.

There is a broad consensus among national security experts that energy security is national security.  The National Intelligence Council recently concluded that global warming was one of the gravest long-term threats facing the international system with the potential to cause resource wars, climate refugees and massive natural disasters.  Eleven retired generals and admirals also put out a report last year concluding that, “Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security.”  With so much of the world’s energy in the hands of authoritarian governments or located in unstable parts of the world, our dependence on oil also leaves us critically vulnerable to the whims of dictators and regional instability.  One need only look to the recent Russia-Ukraine-EU natural gas crisis to understand the potential consequences of this dependence.  Improved energy policies will give the US and our allies more and better options in our diplomacy, in the Middle East, Asia, Africa and Europe.

Obama takes action on energy security.  Today Obama began “reversing former President George W. Bush's climate change policies... with steps to raise fuel efficiency standards and grant states authority to limit greenhouse gas emissions from cars.”   Obama “will instruct the Environmental Protection Agency to reconsider whether to grant California a waiver to regulate automobile tailpipe emissions linked to global warming, sources said, and he will order the Transportation Department to issue guidelines that will ensure that the nation's auto fleet reaches an average fuel efficiency of 35 miles per gallon by 2020, if not earlier.”  The policies being examined “could reverse two Bush-era decisions that have helped shape the nation's climate policy and its auto market.” [Washington Post, 1/26/09.  Washington Post, 1/26/09]

There is broad consensus among experts that global warming is a national security threat.   The National Intelligence Council, in its recent Global Trends 2025 report, argued that global warming was one of three major threats that could destabilize the entire international system. The NIC warned that climate refugees, resource wars, and an increase in destructive weather events could all undermine American and international security.  The Center for New American Security’s report “A Strategy for American Power” states, “Today, the energy we use keeps our economy and security dependent on unstable and hostile states, vulnerable to natural disasters, and subject to the consequences of climate change.”  A study endorsed by 11 retired generals and ddmirals and conducted by the Center for Naval Analysis concluded, “Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security. The predicted effects of climate change over the coming decades include extreme weather events, drought, flooding, sea level rise, retreating glaciers, habitat shifts, and the increased spread of life-threatening diseases. These conditions have the potential to disrupt our way of life and to force changes in the way we keep ourselves safe and secure.”  [Center for Naval Analysis, 2007. Center for New American Security, 6/08. Global Trends 2025, 11/08]

America’s reliance on oil is linked to international energy and security concerns.  By reversing Bush administration policies on state fuel efficiency standards, and by directing the Transportation Department “to quickly finalize interim nationwide regulations requiring the automobile industry to increase fuel efficiency standards,” President Obama took action on energy that will have broad ramifications for foreign policy.  With so much of the world’s energy in the hands of authoritarian governments or located in unstable parts of the world, the U.S. remains critically vulnerable to the whims of unreliable dictators and regional instability.  Last summer, when oil prices were at their zenith, experts estimated that a “security premium” of as much as $30-40 had been built into the price of oil, a result of unrest in the world’s oil producing regions.  Yet, as the recent Russia-Ukraine-EU natural gas crisis demonstrated, carbon resources in the hands of unfriendly governments can still have severe consequences for countries that are dependent on those resources.  There remains a clear need to reduce the world’s demand for oil by improving fuel efficiency standards and investing in alternatives.  According to Daniel J. Weiss, director of climate strategy at the Center for American Progress, “With the fuel economy measures and clean energy investments in the recovery package, President Obama has done more in one week to reduce oil dependence and global warming than George Bush did in eight years.” [NY Times, 1/26/09. NSN, 7/01/08. AP, 1/21/09]

What We’re Reading

Iceland’s government resigns three months after the collapse of the country’s financial system.

Roadside bomb attacks against coalition troops in Afghanistan hit an all-time high in 2008.  Afghan President Hamid Karzai condemned recent U.S. Predator strikes, as conflicting accounts of civilian casualties emerged.

Gaza tunneling continues.

Controversy erupts in Britain over the BBC’s decision not to air an appeal for charity for Gazans, saying it would jeopardize the BBC’s impartiality.

Congolese warlord Thomas Lubanga pled not guilty to charges of using child soldiers in the International Criminal Court’s first trial.

Some Iraqis would prefer the U.S. maintain custody of detainees in Iraq, not trusting the Iraqi government to treat them humanely.  Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki pushes for election gains.

Today marks the Chinese New Year and the beginning of the Year of the Ox, filled with inauspicious omens.  China’s Prime Minister will travel to Europe this week to discuss the financial crisis.

Ethiopian forces complete their withdrawal from Somalia as Islamist forces make gains.

Bolivians backed a new constitution supported by President Evo Morales.

Commentary of the Day

Bill Kristol’s last column for the New York Times asks if Barack Obama can save liberalism, and notes that “All good things must come to an end.  Jan. 20, 2009, marked the end of a conservative era.”

Jane Mayer interviews White House Counsel Greg Craig about Obama’s Executive Orders on detainees and interrogation and the CIA’s reception of them.

Bret Swanson criticizes Timothy Geithner’s comments on China’s currency manipulation, which raised the specter of economic tension between the U.S. and China.

The LA Times prints international views of Barack Obama’s foreign policy.

Mary Anastasia O’Grady looks at the failing security situation in Mexico.