12/19/08

Events this week underline the real legacy of the Bush Administration's actions in Iraq:  a country still tormented by bombings, a dysfunctional political system threatened by power plays and instability, and at home a troubling history of high-level executive branch misuse of intelligence in the run-up to the war.  This week Prime Minister Maliki claimed to have prevented a coup attempt by arresting more than 20 members of his government. Yet questions remain, with some Iraqi politicians accusing Maliki instead of purging his political foes. A spate of recent bombings further demonstrates the precarious nature of the security situation. It was also revealed this week by the House Oversight Committee that Condoleezza Rice misled Congress over pre-war Iraq intelligence - a reminder of the damage the last eight years have inflicted on our own institutions.

Over 5 years into the Iraq war, political grievances threaten to tumble the country into renewed instability.  Whether yesterday's mass arrest of Iraqi Interior Ministry officials points to a thwarted coup or a crackdown by the Maliki government, it is at the very least a sign that Iraq's political system remains dysfunctional.  Initially the Maliki government claimed that Interior officials had been planning to topple the government, but now, according to the Washington Post, members of parliament are charging "that the prime minister was using Iraq's security forces to instill fear in his rivals ahead of provincial elections set for next month. Critics noted pointedly that a special counterterrorism task force that reports to Maliki made the arrests."  A report from the U.S. Institute of Peace raises these concerns explicitly, saying that while some political progress has been made, "the risk of an increasingly repressive and authoritarian Iraqi regime has come to the fore.  Additionally, if the imbalance in representation is not ameliorated during upcoming elections, the threat of instability could well revive." Specifically, several political flashpoints have emerged which may amount to a new challenge for the U.S. and Iraqis: "ISCI [a religious Shiite party] and the Sadrists, who backed Maliki as prime minister three years ago, have had second thoughts as the prime minister aims to build his own power base in the campaigns for provincial elections, due to be held January 31, 2009, and national elections, due to be held before the end of 2009.  The Kurdish parties have also grown increasingly wary as central government security forces have challenged Kurdish forces (peshmerga) in areas Kurds would like to absorb into the KRG, the so-called ‘disputed territories.'  Maliki's centralist, anti-Kurdish rhetoric has escalated.  Established Sunni political parties are jockeying for position, not only with each other but also with the ‘Sahwa' (Awakening)." [Washington Post, 12/19/08. USIP, 12/18/08]

Spate of bombings show precariousness of security gains.  This month's string of bombings illustrate that the security situation, though improved, remains precarious.  Last Friday, "a suicide bomber detonated explosives inside a popular restaurant just north of Kirkuk on Thursday, killing 57 people and wounding scores more during a meeting of Arab leaders and Kurdish officials attempting to reduce ethnic tensions in the oil-rich city."  Earlier in December, another round of bombings killed at least 21 Iraqis, "including 3 children and 6 adults when an explosive on a horse-drawn cart went off in an attack on a primary school in Mosul." And at the end of November, "[a] suicide bomber detonated explosives outside a Shiite mosque south of Baghdad... killing at least 12 people and injuring 23 a day after Iraqi lawmakers approved a security pact to extend the U.S. military presence in Iraq." [Washington Post, 12/12/08. NY Times, 12/2/08. Washington Post, 11/29/08]

House panel rejects White House intelligence claims in run up to Iraq war.  Henry A. Waxman, chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, released a memo saying that then-National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice and then-White House Council Alberto Gonzales misled Congress over the CIA's doubts on intelligence that the President used to make the case to go to war in his 2003 State of the Union.  The memo states, "Contrary to Mr. Gonzales's assertions, the Committee has received evidence that the CIA objected to the uranium claim in both speeches, resulting in its deletion from the President's remarks. In the case of the September 26, 2002, speech, the former Deputy Director of Intelligence [Jami Miscik] at the CIA told the Committee that she personally warned Dr. Rice not to use the uranium claim." [AP, 12/19/08. House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, 12/18/08. LA Times, 12/19/08]

What We're Reading

The Israel-Hamas truce ends in Gaza.

More than 10,000 people in Peshawar, Pakistan, protested allowing the U.S. and NATO to use Pakistani supply routes to Afghanistan.

Violent protests erupt in Athens after the shooting of a second teenager.

Tensions between the U.S. and Afghan governments rise over another U.S. raid that allegedly killed three civilians.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates has requested plans for closing Guantanamo Bay.

The Iraqi shoe-throwing journalist allegedly asked for a pardon.  A judge said he had been beaten.

A senior Russian general said that Russia would cut its arms if the U.S. drops plans for missile defense.

The drop in oil prices causes economic woes for Russia and social unrest.

After extraordinary success, China's export-driven economy faces peril.

Japan cuts its interest rates to almost zero.  Japan's government forecasts zero growth for 2009 and may shrink.

Young Somali men in Minnesota are leaving to fight in Somalia.  A local mosque is accused of radicalizing the young men to become jihadists.

Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe ridiculed African leaders, saying that they were not brave enough to force him from power.

A Moroccan court sentenced a Moroccan man to 20 years for his involvement in the 2004 Madrid train bombings.

A Yemeni tribe freed three German hostages kidnapped Monday.

Commentary of the Day

The Wall Street Journal has an editorial criticizing the Democratic response to Senator Carl Levin's report on the involvement of top Bush administration officials in detainee abuse.

Damon Terrill has an op-ed in the Des Moines Register on President-elect Barack Obama's opportunity to restore the rule of law on detainee abuse.

Mark Halperin has an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal on how the Bush administration has made us vulnerable, as "two incompetently prosecuted wars have undermined our deterrent power."

Rosa Brooks' latest column in the Los Angeles Times explores the global response to the Iraqi shoe-throwing journalist.

Michael Gerson has an op-ed in the Washington Post on negotiations with North Korea.