Today, President Bush is giving a speech at the Army War College touting his legacy by arguing that there have been no terrorist attacks on American soil since 9/11.  Vice President Cheney has echoed the same sentiments recently in an interview with ABC.  Sadly, this argument ignores the obvious fact that the administration ignored warnings from terrorism experts such as Richard Clarke in the run up to 9/11 and did not make al Qaeda a top priority.  

Moreover, the President’s policies since 9/11 have failed to make America safer.  After initial success in Afghanistan, the administration became distracted by Iraq, allowing those who attacked us on 9/11 to reconstitute a new terrorist safe haven on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and once again threaten the United States.  Moreover, the invasion of Iraq and its disastrous consequences have acted as a terrorism recruiting, training and fundraising vehicle causing an overall increase in terror attacks worldwide.  Meanwhile, a number of bipartisan commissions have concluded that the Bush administration has not done nearly enough to address the threat of WMD terrorism – the type of attack that the President himself has acknowledged presents the gravest threat to the United States.  Finally, the administration has violated America’s basic constitutional values through a detainee and torture policy that has failed to bring terrorists to justice while severely damaging America’s image in the world.  

With no Bush administration plan to thwart the terrorist threat in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, al-Qaeda has reconstituted and Osama bin Laden remains at large.  Intelligence analysts agree that the greatest direct threat to the U.S. homeland is from al Qaeda’s safe haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. But without a strategic plan for combating terrorism from the Bush administration, the Afghanistan-Pakistan region has devolved into a den of extremism.  Worse yet, according to National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Transnational Threats Ted Gistaro, Pakistan’s tribal belt has become a “stronger, more comfortable safe haven” for al Qaeda than it was a year ago, and according to DNI director Mitch McConnell, the group is putting together the “last key element” of its plans to strike the U.S. homeland.  “There is also a growing recognition among senior officials that the Bush administration for years did not take the Qaeda threat in Pakistan seriously enough…”  The GAO assessed that “No comprehensive plan for meeting U.S. national security goals in the FATA (Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas) has been developed.”  [LA Times, 6/25/08. NY Times, 8/13/08. DNI Annual Threat Assessment, 2/27/08. GAO, 4/17/08]

Under the Bush administration, the global terrorist threat has grown.  Despite Vice-President Cheney’s claims that the administration’s policies have been “crucial” for foiling or disrupting “attempts to strike the homeland,” the reality is that Bush Administration policies have failed to stem the increase of terrorist incidents and the rise of extremist movements, and, in the case of Iraq, have exacerbated terrorist threats to the U.S.  Around the world, there has been a rise in incidents of terrorism.  In a comprehensive study of terrorist attacks since 9-11, experts Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank found that “even when terrorism in Iraq and Afghanistan is excluded, fatal attacks in the rest of the world have increased by more than one-third” and the latest State Department Terrorism report found a roughly 30% increase in worldwide terrorist attacks from 2007 to 2008.  Worse yet, al-Qaeda affiliates and other extremist groups have gained a stronger foothold across the Middle East and beyond; the Gaza strip has become a haven for extremists; and al Qaeda in the Maghreb has raised its profile in Algeria and North Africa. In Lebanon today, the Cedar Revolution is a distant memory, and Hezbollah is now the “single most powerful force,” according to the Washington Post.  This rise in terrorism is not just explained by the Bush Administration’s neglect.  In the case of Iraq, Bush’s policies have actually exacerbated the problem, creating a “cause célèbre” that fueled global terrorism, and shaped a “new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives,” according to National Intelligence Estimates prepared by 16 intelligence agencies.  [Vice President Cheney, 12/16/08. Mother Jones, 3/01/07. State Department, April 2008. Washington Post, 6/16/2007. BBC News, 8/20/2008. NPR, 8/20/08. Council on Foreign Relations, 7/31/08. Washington Post, 5/18/08. NIE, 07/07]

Bipartisan reports warn of failure to address the threat of a WMD attack.  President Bush himself has declared the cross section of weapons of mass destruction and terrorism the greatest threat facing the United States, yet seven years after 9/11 America and the world are at an even greater risk of attack.  The Commission on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism, chaired by Bob Graham and Jim Talent, issued a report stating that, “unless the world community acts decisively and with great urgency, it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013.”  In addition, the bi-partisan Hamilton-Rudman commission gave the Bush administration a “C” on nuclear terrorism.  The panel found that there is not enough follow through on international counter proliferation programs and little coordination within the U.S. government or long-term thinking of how to sustain these programs. [World at Risk, 12/08. Partnership for a Secure America, 9/10/08]

The Bush administration’s detention policy has been a powerful recruitment tool for jihadists and has not made us safer.  When asked how detention policies have affected homeland security, the Vice-President responded, “It's enormously important. I think those programs were crucial. The president made some very tough decisions, and we had some very able and talented people involved in the military and our intelligence services, making certain that we were able to keep the country safe.” However, a bipartisan Senate Armed Services Committee report inquiring into the treatment of detainees in U.S. custody, released by Senators Carl Levin (D) and John McCain (R), found that “Al Qaeda and Taliban terrorists are taught to expect Americans to abuse them. They are recruited based on false propaganda that says the United States is out to destroy Islam. Treating detainees harshly only reinforces that distorted view, increases resistance to cooperation, and creates new enemies. In fact the ‘Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States’ cited ‘pervasive anti U.S. sentiment among most Muslims’ as an underlying factor fueling the spread of the global jihadist movement.” And Pew Research has found that favorable views of the U.S. among important Muslim allies have declined to 9% in Turkey and 15% in Pakistan. [Senate Armed Services Committee, 12/08.  Pew Global Attitudes Project, 6/27/2007]

What We're Reading

Global markets decline, dollar falls.  U.S. Federal Reserve cuts the key interest rate to near 0%.  OPEC announces production cuts, but oil prices fall with the expectation that the cut will not be enacted.

A bomb near a Baghdad police station killed at least 18.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown made an unannounced visit to Iraq and confirmed in a statement with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki that U.K. troops will withdraw from Iraq by June.

The Iraqi journalist who threw his shoes at President Bush is scheduled to appear before a judge today.

The Bush administration prepared crisis briefings for the beginning of the Obama administration on a variety of scenarios, including a North Korean nuclear explosion.

China is close to sending warships to the Gulf of Aden.  The U.N. authorizes land and air strikes on pirates.

Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari said that there is still no firm evidence that the Mumbai attackers came from Pakistan, despite U.S., Indian, and British intelligence claims to the contrary.

Somalia's president appoints a new prime minister, defying Parliament.

A Latin American summit in Brazil excludes the U.S. while welcoming Cuba.

China's middle class vents anger through strikes.

The New York Times looks at elections in the Russian sphere of influence.

NASA reports that ice is disappearing at an accelerating rate, with 2 trillion tons of ice lost worldwide since 2003.

The Christian Science Monitor has a three-part series on Japan's desire for a bigger role in world affairs.

President-elect Barack Obama faces an early decision on the fate of the space shuttle.

Commentary of the Day

Thomas Friedman, in the New York Times, looks at the U.S. and China in the financial crisis.

The Miami Herald argues for a "full airing" of Bush administration detainee policies.

John Kiriakou, in the Miami Herald, discusses Iran's influence in Latin America and revamping U.S. strategy in the region.

Jeffrey Wasserstrom, in the Christian Science Monitor, explores two overlooked stories about China.