10/24/08

With only two weeks left until the election, John McCain had another difficult week on the national security front.  First, former Secretary of State and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Colin Powell endorsed Obama saying he is the right person to lead the country at this time and reestablish our place in the world.  Meanwhile, in direct opposition to McCain’s position, the security agreement being negotiated by the governments of the United States and Iraq reportedly sets a relatively hard deadline for withdrawal by the end of 2011 that can only be changed with consent from the Iraqi Government.  Even that slight flexibility was too much for the Iraqi Cabinet which is calling for a harder deadline further undermining McCain’s claim that the withdrawal would be “conditions based.”  Finally, a frequent commenter on the most prominent Al Qaeda affiliated website on the internet endorsed McCain arguing that he is most likely to continue the ineffective policies of President Bush.  While the McCain campaign tried to downplay the importance of the website, counterterrorism expert Evan Kohlmann explained “Casually dismissing Al-Hesbah as ‘just another terrorist Islamist blog’ is like referring to Internet giant Google as ‘just another e-commerce website.’”

Former Secretary of State General Colin Powell’s endorsement of Obama underscores shift away from John McCain.  On Meet the Press this week, Secretary Powell, said that “I have some concerns about the direction that the party has taken in recent years. It has moved more to the right than I would like to see it, but that's a choice the party makes.” “The president will also have to make decisions quickly as to how to deal with Iraq and Afghanistan.  And also I think the president has to reach out to the world and show that there is a new president, a new administration that is looking forward to working with our friends and allies.  And in my judgment, also willing to talk to people who we have not been willing to talk to before. Because this is a time for outreach.”  Powell’s endorsement lead the way this week for a number of Bush Republicans to endorse Obama.  Ken Adelman, former a member of the Bush administration’s Defense Policy Board, announced this week that he will be voting for Sen. Obama for President, saying it was “[p]rimarily for two reasons, those of temperament and of judgment.”  Adelman also cited the Palin pick as a reason for his endorsement, saying “Not only is Sarah Palin not close to being acceptable in high office—I would not have hired her for even a mid-level post in the arms-control agency.” Even Bush’s former Press Secretary Scott McClellan came out and said, "From the very beginning I have said I am going to support the candidate that has the best chance for changing the way Washington works and getting things done and I will be voting for Barack Obama." [NY Times, 10/19/08. Colin Powell, 10/19/08. Washington Post, 10/23/08.New Yorker, 10/20/08]

In a blow to John McCain, the draft security agreement between the Bush administration and the Iraqi Government appears to set a clear a timeline for U.S. withdrawal with the Iraqi Parliament opposing what little flexibility does exist. John McCain has consistently pushed for a “conditions based” U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, but the draft security agreement that is currently being negotiated between the Bush administration and the Iraqi Government sets a clear deadline of December 31, 2011.  When confronted with this damaging information by CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, McCain maintained that the agreement still laid out a “conditions based” withdrawal, but indications seem to be that the disengagement of U.S. troops would only be halted if the Iraqis agreed to halt it.  In fact according to the Washington Post even this small amount of flexibility is being called into question by the Iraqi Cabinet which “called for a firm withdrawal date for all U.S. troops at the end of 2011, instead of current language that would permit American forces to stay under mutual agreement.” [Washington Independent, 10/21/08. Washington Post, 10/21/08. John McCain, 10/22/08]

Al-Qaeda-linked site expresses support for John McCain’s presidential bid; cites McCain as most likely to continue Bush policies. The Associated Press reports that “Al-Qaida supporters suggested in a Web site message this week they would welcome a pre-election terror attack on the U.S. as a way to usher in a McCain presidency. The message, posted Monday on the password-protected al-Hesbah Web site, said if al-Qaida wants to exhaust the United States militarily and economically, ‘impetuous’ Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain is the better choice because he is more likely to continue the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. ‘This requires presence of an impetuous American leader such as McCain, who pledged to continue the war till the last American soldier,’ the message said. ‘Then, al-Qaida will have to support McCain in the coming elections so that he continues the failing march of his predecessor, Bush.’”  McCain advisers Randy Scheunemman and Jim Woolsey attempted to discredit the website’s connections to al-Qaeda, with Woolsey calling it "just another terrorist Islamist blog."  However, according to counter-terrorism expert Evan Kholmann, “Al-Hesbah is Al-Qaida's last fortified redoubt left on the Internet. Casually dismissing Al-Hesbah as ‘just another terrorist Islamist blog’ is like referring to Internet giant Google as ‘just another e-commerce website.’” [AP, 10/22/08. Evan Kohlmann, 10/23/08]

Quick Hits

Asian and European shares fell sharply.  U.S. Futures fell 550 points, the maximum possible, and both it and the S&P 500 Index were locked to prevent further sell-offs.  The Dow also fell sharply shortly after its open.

OPEC cut the production of oil by 1.5 million barrels a day, hoping to slow the fall of oil prices, which dropped again today.

Russia criticized U.S. sanctions on its state arms dealer as being “unilateral” and unlikely to increase U.S.-Russian cooperation on stopping Iran’s nuclear program.  The arms dealer is suspected of aiding nuclear programs in Iran, North Korea, and Syria.

Pakistan arrested four men for their suspected connection to the September bombing of the Islamabad Marriot Hotel.

Yesterday’s suspected U.S. airstrike in Pakistan killed eight people, all of whom the villagers say were militants.  The attack appeared to have missed its intended target, however, the compound of Jalaluddin Haqqani, a close Osama bin Laden associate.

President Bush is expected to sign documents today that will help Croatia and Albania get full membership in NATO.

A suicide car bombing in Baghdad killed 11 people, but left the targeted government minister unhurt.

Israel’s Shas party decided not to join Tzipi Livni’s fledgling coalition government, possibly forcing elections.

The European Union and Cuba resumed cooperation.  The EU imposed diplomatic sanctions on Cuba in 2003 over Cuban political prisoners.

Turkey’s Constitutional Court found that Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and other government leaders have been involved anti-secular activities when it imposed financial sanctions on his AKP party in July.  The court was explaining its decision.

The United States and the United Nations agree that poppy production for the Afghan heroin trade has declined, but disagree on how much opium production will fall as a result.

The Asia-Europe summit begins in Beijing today and is expected to focus on the financial crisis.