Tracking Obama's Victories in Asia - National Security Network

Tracking Obama’s Victories in Asia

Posted November 14, 2014

President Obama’s trip to Asia this week exceeded most expectations, producing several landmark deals with China to advance American economic and security interests both in the region and globally, including a historic climate change agreement, reductions on tariffs, and conflict-avoidance agreements to reduce the probability of accidental crises or escalation with Beijing. These victories are the diplomatic fruit of sustained U.S. attention to the Asia-Pacific under the auspices of strategic rebalancing and lay the foundation for more progress in the future. Perhaps above all, these events signal that while China is a rising great power with a complex relationship with the United States characterized by both cooperation and sharp competition, the United States and its partners are capable of keeping China invested in the liberal international order, ensuring Beijing plays a constructive role in the global system. This was further supported this week with more progress in U.S. engagement with Myanmar amid its political transition and the success of U.S. efforts at the ASEAN Summit to work with India to clear the way for more open global trade regimes.

At the APEC Summit, President Obama secured historic agreements with China on top issues:

The United States got China to commit to greenhouse gas reductions, clearing the way for further progress with China and the international community. Tim Boersma, Acting Director of the Energy Security Initiative at the Brookings Institution, explains: “Under the agreement, the United States intends to achieve an economy-wide target of reducing its emissions by 26 percent to 28 percent in 2025, as compared to 2005. China intends to peak carbon emissions by 2030, and also intends to have a 20 percent share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption by 2030…for China, to strive for peak carbon by 2030 surely is significant compared to its stance to date. However, the unknown is where that peak will be.”

But the whole of the deal is greater than the sum of its parts. William Antholis, Managing Director of the Brookings Institution, explains that “What makes today’s announcement so dramatic is that, together, both countries have made it politically easier for each other to take even deeper cuts in two regards – one diplomatic and one domestic.” Diplomatically, the agreement comes a year ahead of the 2015 U.N. climate summit in Paris, where the United States and China are expected to be under considerable pressure to commit to reductions, and “each country feared that the other might put the blame for a failed Paris meeting on the other” if no progress was made – effectively averting a game of “greenhouse gas chicken.” Domestically, “each side has wisely provided the other with an argument against affected domestic industries – that joint action will lead to a level economic playing field.” The agreement may also make it harder for other countries like India to forgo climate action indefinitely. [Tim Boersma, 11/13/14. William Antholis, 11/12/14]

The U.S. and China agreed to conflict-avoidance measures after over 15 years of stalled progress. Bonnie Glaser of the Center for Strategic and International Studies explains the substance of the new agreements: “In 1998 the United States and China established the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA) to avoid accidents when their respect maritime and air forces operate in close proximity. Sixteen years of negotiations yielded little progress, until now. Two agreements on military confidence building measures were inked at the US-China summit in Beijing: notification of major military activities and a code of conduct for safe conduct of naval and air military encounters. Together, they hold out promise that despite persisting mistrust and ongoing preparation to deter and defeat the other side if conflict breaks out, the US and Chinese militaries can work together to reduce misperception, increase predictability, and lower the risk of accident that could result in inadvertent escalation in crisis.” [Bonnie Glaser, 11/11/14]

After stalling, China agreed to eliminate tariffs on key goods, helping to level the economic playing field and create American jobs. The deal would apply to $1 trillion in trade involving the United States and China. The Wall Street Journal reports, “The new technology deal would include 200 different tariff categories. Among the products that would see tariffs eliminated are next-generation semiconductors, which now have tariffs as high as 25%; magnetic resonance-imaging, or MRI, machines, which face tariffs of up to 8%; and GPS devices, which also have tariffs as high as 8%, the U.S. said…The agreement, while not final, would eliminate tariffs on sales of roughly $1 trillion and could generate as many as 60,000 U.S. jobs.” The deal will be brought before the World Trade Organization, which is expected to approve it. The agreement also breathes fresh hope into other economic priorities in the Sino-American economic relationship, including commitments to continue negotiations and ultimately conclude a Bilateral Investment Treaty. [Wall Street Journal, 11/10/14]

President Obama strengthened the foundation for progress in Myanmar over the long haul amid a difficult transition and continued human rights problems. As Myanmar hosts its first ASEAN summit, continuing its evolution from pariah nation toward normal partner, the country still has a long way to go to address ongoing and severe human rights problems, including the denial of voting rights to the Rohingya Muslim population of 1.3 million, excessive military involvement in politics, and communal violence. Calibrated U.S. engagement that encourages reform while conditioning deeper ties on an improved human rights record can make a positive difference over the long haul. While in Myanmar, President Obama announced “the Initiative to Promote Fundamental Labor Rights and Practices in Myanmar” to “help modernize Burma’s labor code, improve compliance with international labor standards, and foster a robust dialogue between the government, business, labor and civil society.” This follows other constructive engagement, including “assistance to over 300 civil society organizations throughout the country and supported local initiatives valued at more than $10.5 million, and implemented by 90 local partners.” Going forward, more is needed. One potentially productive area of deeper engagement is military-to-military contacts focused on building better civilian-military relations in the country. Brian Harding, Aarthi Gunasekaran, and Charles Jordan of the Center for American Progress suggest limited expansion of military-to-military contacts to “support the development of civilian-military relations through educational programs.” [White House Factsheet on Labor Rights, 11/13/14. White House Factsheet on Burma, 11/13/14. Brian Harding, Aarthi Gunasekaran, and Charles Jordan, 11/13/14]

President Obama achieved progress at the ASEAN Summit on economic issues, but sustained effort is needed. In discussions surrounding the ASEAN meeting, President Obama and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to an agreement to open the door to lowering customs barriers through the World Trade Organization. The Economic Times reports, “Under the agreement reached with the US after hectic parleys in the early hours of Thursday, WTO nations won’t challenge food security programmes of fellow members until a permanent solution has been found and adopted on food stocks, something on which India had refused to budge…India is now expected to endorse the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), a global plan to lower customs barriers that’s expected to add $1 trillion to the global economy.” Meanwhile, the United States has the opportunity to continue engaging ASEAN on the U.S.-ASEAN Expanded Economic Engagement (E3) initiative, which intends to “promote trade facilitation, standards development and practices, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and establishing open and transparent investment and information technology environments.” [Economic Times, 11/14/14]