Taking Stock of the Obama-Xi Summit
Last week’s unprecedented two day summit between Presidents Obama and Xi exceeded many expectations, providing forward momentum on cooperation to denuclearize North Korea and a commitment on cooperation to reduce hydrocarbon emissions on both sides of the Pacific. Progress on the most controversial aspect of the summit’s agenda – cybersecurity – proved elusive, though there was forward movement immediately preceding the meeting. Perhaps most significant, though, was the framing of the meeting as two great powers who recognize that avoiding the historical precedent for conflict between emerging and established powers will benefit both sides.
Summit highlights shared desire to chart a new course for the great power relationship; giving it content rather than conflict will be the overarching challenge for the foreseeable future. Richard Bush of the Brookings Institution explains, “‘New pattern of great power relations’ is the latest in formulations that Chinese leaders have deployed on a periodic basis, both as a tool to bring coherence to their increasingly unwieldy system and as a means to engage their foreign counterparts…That China is focused on a ‘new pattern’ reflects its concern about the old pattern. That pattern, in the Chinese understanding, is that when a previously weak country quickly accumulates power, it ends up challenging the existing international order and the principal countries that defend that order and then finds itself in perpetual conflict and major war. China today does not wish to repeat the old pattern. The Obama Administration appears to be in the same place. As Donilon put it, Washington joins Beijing in rejecting the idea of ‘an inexorable dynamic’ that a rising power and an existing power are in some manner ‘destined for conflict.’ The problem is that the ‘new pattern’ idea is so far just a slogan. It has no content.” Specifying that content appears to be the overarching challenge of the bilateral relationship in the coming period. [Richard Bush, 6/12/13]
Progress on climate cooperation opens up a new dimension of Sino-American relationship with global benefit. Press reports highlight that “The big breakthrough of the summit wasn’t on cybersecurity or trade, but on climate change. The two leaders agreed to reduce use of hydrofluorocarbons. Hydrofluorocarbons — or HFC’s — are mostly used in automobile air conditioners, something the car cultures of the U.S. and now China have in droves. HFC’s are also hundreds to thousands times more potent greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide. Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, says the agreement by the world’s two largest emitters of these gases to phase them out is significant. ‘Reducing the HFC’s can provide the single biggest and fastest piece of climate mitigation available to the world through 2020,’ he says.” [Marketplace, 6/8/12]
China continues to adjust course on North Korea and shows signs of further cooperation with the United States. Elizabeth Economy of the Council on Foreign Relation explains, the Chinese “produced a deliverable on one of the United States’ hot button issues — North Korea — even before the summit began. After Xi Jinping met with a North Korean envoy in late May, DPRK leader Kim Jong-un offered to conduct high-level talks with South Korea. While causality cannot be proved, the sequence of events is certainly suggestive.” At the talks, President Xi committed to pursue denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula. National Security Advisor Tom Donilon summarizes, “The two sides stressed the importance of continuing to apply pressure both to halt North Korea’s ability to proliferate and to make clear that its continued pursuit of nuclear weapons is incompatible with its economic development goals” and added “ I think we had quite a bit of alignment on the Korean issue.” [Elizabeth Economy, 6/11/13. Tom Donilon via AFPS, 6/9/13]
Cybersecurity concerns remain at “the 40,000-foot level.” The summit itself did not produce any substantial movement on cybersecurity issues, with President Obama characterizing the cybersecurity conversation with his counterpart as limited to “the 40,000-foot level.” Yet, there was some positive movement just before the conference, as the “the State Department announced that China had agreed with the United States, Russia and other major nations that international law applies to actions that states take in cyberspace — a significant step toward ensuring that civilians and civilian systems such as energy grids are not targeted in cyberattacks.” Nonetheless, enormous challenges remain. The severity of the challenge the U.S. faces in cyberspace was recently highlighted by the Mandiant cybersecurity firm in a report detailing Chinese military involvement in extensive cyber espionage against American and other western economic targets. Also highlighting the severity of the challenge are recent reports that China employed cyber espionage to gain access to sensitive information regarding “more than two dozen major weapon systems.” [Washington Post. 6/7/13. Washington Post, 5/28/13]
What We’re Reading
America’s electronic spying chief has promised to give the entire U.S. Senate a rare classified briefing about dozens of terror plots he says were thwarted by secret surveillance.
Mexican authorities say police have found the body of a man running for mayor of a northern Mexico town known for drug trafficking.
Ethiopia’s parliament unanimously ratified a treaty that strips Egypt of its right to the lion’s share of the Nile river waters, raising the political temperature in a dispute between Cairo and Addis Ababa over the construction of a dam.
Morgan Tsvangirai, the prime minister of Zimbabwe, has rejected a plan by President Robert Mugabe to hold an election on July 31, accusing the country’s leader of violating the constitution.
U.S. President Barack Obama and his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe have renewed their commitment to stability and dialogue in the East China Sea, where Tokyo and Beijing are involved in a heated territorial dispute.
More than 10,000 protesters rallied outside Greece’s public broadcasting headquarters in support of fired staff, who for a third day occupied the building to continue broadcasts in defiance of the government.
Israel is pressing on with plans for more than 1,000 new homes in two West Bank settlements, moves that could complicate U.S. efforts to persuade Palestinians, seeking a construction freeze, to return to peace talks.
At least three people have been killed in an attack on a passenger train by suspected Maoist rebels in the northern Indian state of Bihar.
Six policemen have been shot dead at an outpost in southern Afghanistan.
Commentary of the Day
John Campbell writes that talks in Burkina Faso, even if successful, are far from solving the Mali crisis.
Reza Azlan argues that once President Ahmadinejad is gone, there will be no one left to stand up to Iran’s mullahs.
Frida Ghitis discusses why Italy poses a bigger threat to the survival of the European Union than any other country.
