Ukraine

Why the U.S. Should Not Arm Ukraine Right Now March 6, 2015 Today, members of Congress and outside voices are continuing the push to send lethal aid to Kiev. These calls are ill-timed, especially while a tenuous ceasefire seems to have taken hold pursuant to the Minsk II agreement reached last month between European powers, Ukraine, and Russia. While the future of the ceasefire remains very much in doubt, a decision to send arms to Kiev now would carry more cost than benefits, undermining rather than protecting U.S. and European interests. Top costs include inducing Russian escalation, giving Putin political cover to violate the ceasefire, and undermining transatlantic unity in confronting Moscow’s aggression. Despite these costs, American arms will not empower Kiev to successfully resist… Read More ›

Jeb Bush Lays out Limited Foreign Policy Vision February 20, 2015 On Wednesday, Jeb Bush laid out the foreign policy framework for his anticipated presidential campaign in a speech at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Bush’s remarks covered a broad range of subjects, and while he identified many of the pressing international challenges facing the United States, his remarks lacked clarity or solutions. As the presidential race moves forward, the national security debate will require more depth of understanding on issues including resolving Iran’s nuclear program, addressing the threat from the Islamic State, the fighting in Ukraine, normalizing relations with Cuba, and ongoing Pentagon spending debates, and we will look for candidates that back up emerging positions with effective policies. Bush doesn’t seem to… Read More ›

Lethal Aid for Ukraine: Assessing Costs and Benefits As Russia’s support for separatist forces in Eastern Ukraine and direct involvement in the conflict there continues to escalate, French President François Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are in Moscow in an effort to negotiate a ceasefire and diplomatic solution with their Russian counterparts. Meanwhile, with Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State John Kerry in Europe, there are reports that the United States is considering the provision of defensive arms to Ukraine should diplomacy not be immediately successful. Taking the step of providing arms to Ukraine has garnered increasing support from members of Congress and outside experts. While it is clear that the United States and Europe need to reinforce their response to Russia,… Read More ›

Top 5 Questions for Ashton Carter’s Confirmation Hearing Later this week, the Senate is scheduled to consider Ashton Carter’s nomination for Secretary of Defense. New leadership at the Pentagon provides an opportunity for policy changes that require careful thought and effective dialogue with Congress. The nomination hearing can begin this process by digging into some of the critical questions facing the Department of Defense and its role in foreign policy, including the future of Overseas Contingency Operations funding, fiscal discipline at the Pentagon, the way forward on the Guantanamo Bay detention facility, the fight against the Islamic State, and potential changes with U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine. On these critical issues to the future of U.S. defense policy, key questions include: With the… Read More ›

January 6, 2015 | POTUS, The Morning Briefing with Tim Farley John Bradshaw discussing foreign policy challenges of 2015 – reaching a nuclear deal with Iran, authorizing use of military force against the Islamic State, closing the Guantanamo Bay detention facility, U.S.-Russian relations and Ukraine, and trade – with Tim Farley on the Morning Brief. To view the original posting, click here.  Read More ›

By Bill French May 2, 2014 | The National Interest How to effectively respond to the crisis in Ukraine has elicited a fierce debate in Washington. Given the stakes, a carefully crafted, longer-term strategy is called for beyond near-term crisis management. But some of the proposals offered entail severe risks and self-defeating consequences. This is especially true of recently renewed calls for a fresh round of NATO enlargement ahead of the alliance’s summit this September in the United Kingdom. These calls appear to be more of a perpetuation of NATO enlargement’s post–Cold War inertia than a seriously thought out strategy that considers the balance of potential costs and benefits. At a minimum, proponents of enlargement have not met the burden of demonstrating its supposed positive… Read More ›

U.S. Army paratroopers arrive in Poland with their NATO allies in Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as part of recently announced exercises. [U.S. Army photo by Sgt. A.M. LaVey, 4/24/2014]The deteriorating situation in eastern Ukraine and the possibility of Russian escalation highlights the need for a longer-term strategy for dealing with Moscow and assisting Kiev. Media reports indicate this is already underway in Washington. In developing longer-term strategy, however, it will be vital to get a number of key issues right – especially as some conservatives continue to offer unconstructive proposals. Most immediately, it will be vital to calibrate the degree of risk worth taking in dealing with Moscow over Ukraine that properly places the present regional crisis in its broader context. Right-sizing the extent… Read More ›

Signature of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement [European Council, 3/21/2014, https://flic.kr/p/mgYwp9]   The United States and Europe are likely to wait until after their talks in Geneva tomorrow with Russia and Ukraine before imposing additional sanctions on Moscow for its apparent covert involvement in the pro-Russian uprisings in eastern Ukraine. Nonetheless, a strong set of economic tools are available to impose costs on Russia as the West further adapts economic statecraft for disciplinary purposes towards Moscow. Because any such measures require joint U.S.-EU action to be successful – as with any other courses of action – the diplomatic challenges to sizably escalating economic costs on Russia are very real. Yet, recent comments by the British Foreign Minister indicate that Europe may be on track to assume… Read More ›

Protester at Euromaidan [Ivan Bandura, 12/9/14]Over the weekend, pro-Russian militants took control of some key infrastructure in six cities in eastern Ukraine during a coordinated operation.  American officials have concluded that the operation was facilitated by Russia and the government in Kiev has alleged that Russian intelligence forces are in eastern Ukraine overseeing operations. These moves come as Russia has deployed tens of thousands of forces to its border with Ukraine. Kiev has deployed military forces to the areas experiencing unrest and is threatening what it is calling armed “anti-terrorism” operations. In response, the United States is coordinating with its European partners to expand the sanctions – last updated on Friday – that are already in place and having both targeted and general effects on… Read More ›

As the crisis in Ukraine continues and the West begins to formulate a longer-term response, policymakers in Washington can ill afford anything less than a clear-eyed assessment. It is therefore troubling that politically motivated narratives continue to persist about the crisis in the Ukraine and broader issues surrounding American policy. Particularly troubling are the dangerously misguided notions that nuclear nonproliferation initiatives like New START have become a liability or should have never been pursued. That view ignores the facts and benefits of nuclear reductions, including a better understanding of Russian capabilities and the opportunity to invest resources in conventional capabilities in which the U.S. has a comparative advantage. Likewise, a narrative is developing that dramatically overestimates the effectiveness of the Russian armed forces which remain… Read More ›