Russia

Why the U.S. Should Not Arm Ukraine Right Now March 6, 2015 Today, members of Congress and outside voices are continuing the push to send lethal aid to Kiev. These calls are ill-timed, especially while a tenuous ceasefire seems to have taken hold pursuant to the Minsk II agreement reached last month between European powers, Ukraine, and Russia. While the future of the ceasefire remains very much in doubt, a decision to send arms to Kiev now would carry more cost than benefits, undermining rather than protecting U.S. and European interests. Top costs include inducing Russian escalation, giving Putin political cover to violate the ceasefire, and undermining transatlantic unity in confronting Moscow’s aggression. Despite these costs, American arms will not empower Kiev to successfully resist… Read More ›

Jeb Bush Lays out Limited Foreign Policy Vision February 20, 2015 On Wednesday, Jeb Bush laid out the foreign policy framework for his anticipated presidential campaign in a speech at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Bush’s remarks covered a broad range of subjects, and while he identified many of the pressing international challenges facing the United States, his remarks lacked clarity or solutions. As the presidential race moves forward, the national security debate will require more depth of understanding on issues including resolving Iran’s nuclear program, addressing the threat from the Islamic State, the fighting in Ukraine, normalizing relations with Cuba, and ongoing Pentagon spending debates, and we will look for candidates that back up emerging positions with effective policies. Bush doesn’t seem to… Read More ›

Lethal Aid for Ukraine: Assessing Costs and Benefits As Russia’s support for separatist forces in Eastern Ukraine and direct involvement in the conflict there continues to escalate, French President François Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are in Moscow in an effort to negotiate a ceasefire and diplomatic solution with their Russian counterparts. Meanwhile, with Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State John Kerry in Europe, there are reports that the United States is considering the provision of defensive arms to Ukraine should diplomacy not be immediately successful. Taking the step of providing arms to Ukraine has garnered increasing support from members of Congress and outside experts. While it is clear that the United States and Europe need to reinforce their response to Russia,… Read More ›

Top 5 Questions for Ashton Carter’s Confirmation Hearing Later this week, the Senate is scheduled to consider Ashton Carter’s nomination for Secretary of Defense. New leadership at the Pentagon provides an opportunity for policy changes that require careful thought and effective dialogue with Congress. The nomination hearing can begin this process by digging into some of the critical questions facing the Department of Defense and its role in foreign policy, including the future of Overseas Contingency Operations funding, fiscal discipline at the Pentagon, the way forward on the Guantanamo Bay detention facility, the fight against the Islamic State, and potential changes with U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine. On these critical issues to the future of U.S. defense policy, key questions include: With the… Read More ›

January 6, 2015 | POTUS, The Morning Briefing with Tim Farley John Bradshaw discussing foreign policy challenges of 2015 – reaching a nuclear deal with Iran, authorizing use of military force against the Islamic State, closing the Guantanamo Bay detention facility, U.S.-Russian relations and Ukraine, and trade – with Tim Farley on the Morning Brief. To view the original posting, click here.  Read More ›

Top Five Foreign Policy Challenges for 2015 Tomorrow, the new Congress is set to begin its first session amid a flurry of near- and mid-term foreign policy challenges that it will have the ability to affect for better or worse. Issues looming large include negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program as conservatives once again consider new counterproductive sanctions, the war against the Islamic State as American forces are being exposed to increased risk, the fate of the Guantanamo Bay detention facility as the transfer of prisoners picks up pace, managing America’s security interest in sustained nonproliferation cooperation with Russia even as Moscow misbehaves in Eastern Europe, and potentially divisive trade agreements under negotiation. On all of these issues, an effective relationship between Congress and… Read More ›

Recent reports indicate that Russia has escalated its assistance to rebels in eastern Ukraine with a greater flow of armaments and the direct involvement of around 1,000 Russian troops. This morning, a day ahead of the NATO summit in the United Kingdom, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have endorsed a ceasefire plan in Ukraine following conflicting reports. Nonetheless, the summit beginning tomorrow provides an important venue for NATO to respond to Russian aggression to increase European stability regardless of the outcome of the apparently preliminary ceasefire arrangement under consideration. Top agenda items include reassuring NATO member states – particularly Baltic states, where President Obama is currently visiting – of alliance commitments, increasing preparedness for countering unconventional operations like those Russia has conducted in Ukraine, addressing underwhelming… Read More ›

  President Barack Obama and President-elect Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine talk after statements to the press following their bilateral meeting at the Warsaw Marriott Hotel in Warsaw, Poland. [Official White House Photo by Pete Souza, 6/4/2014]Following the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 (MH17) in eastern Ukraine, the West faces challenges in coordinating a significant increase in pressure on Russia to bring an end to the regional conflict.  Thus far, relatively modest sanctions by the United States and Europe have been effective in imposing costs on the Russian economy and were likely a factor in the removal of Russian forces from the border and Moscow’s backing away from the threat of invading eastern Ukraine. Nonetheless, Russian support for separatists has continued to fuel the conflict.… Read More ›

By Bill French May 2, 2014 | The National Interest How to effectively respond to the crisis in Ukraine has elicited a fierce debate in Washington. Given the stakes, a carefully crafted, longer-term strategy is called for beyond near-term crisis management. But some of the proposals offered entail severe risks and self-defeating consequences. This is especially true of recently renewed calls for a fresh round of NATO enlargement ahead of the alliance’s summit this September in the United Kingdom. These calls appear to be more of a perpetuation of NATO enlargement’s post–Cold War inertia than a seriously thought out strategy that considers the balance of potential costs and benefits. At a minimum, proponents of enlargement have not met the burden of demonstrating its supposed positive… Read More ›

U.S. Army paratroopers arrive in Poland with their NATO allies in Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as part of recently announced exercises. [U.S. Army photo by Sgt. A.M. LaVey, 4/24/2014]The deteriorating situation in eastern Ukraine and the possibility of Russian escalation highlights the need for a longer-term strategy for dealing with Moscow and assisting Kiev. Media reports indicate this is already underway in Washington. In developing longer-term strategy, however, it will be vital to get a number of key issues right – especially as some conservatives continue to offer unconstructive proposals. Most immediately, it will be vital to calibrate the degree of risk worth taking in dealing with Moscow over Ukraine that properly places the present regional crisis in its broader context. Right-sizing the extent… Read More ›