Science Over Snowballs: Climate Competence of America’s Leaders is a National Security Issue

Posted February 27, 2015

Science Over Snowballs: Climate Competence of America’s Leaders is a National Security Issue

February 27, 2015

This week, Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) took to the Senate floor with a snowball as a prop as part of an argument against the scientific consensus that global climate change is real and that the Earth’s average surface temperature has been increasing rapidly since the industrial revolution. It may be tempting to dismiss the significance of right-wing climate antics as simply misguided. But Sen. Inhofe, who serves as the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, exemplifies the danger of denying climate science given the severe implications that climate change poses to American national security and global stability, as NSN has detailed before. Because of the connection between climate change and national security, the culture of scientific ignorance and rejection of climate science should be viewed as a hindrance to America’s security interests at home and around the world. This is particularly true as new evidence continues to pile up detailing the potential consequences of doing nothing in the face of rising temperatures around the world. Meanwhile, Americans are increasingly getting the picture – it’s time that our leaders catch up.

Our political culture disregards science and ignores the facts of global climate change at its own risk – despite new evidence of the dangers to America.

Sen. Inhofe perpetuates a culture of scientific ignorance on global climate change by trying to debunk the evidence of rising average temperatures by saying “it’s very, very cold out” and tossing a snowball. He added, “Catch this, mhmm,” in trying to clamp down on the “hysteria” about 2014 being the warmest year on record according to recent scientific research. No part of his remarks, of course, dealt with any of the recent relevant analyses, including research by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In a January release, the agencies explained, “The 10 warmest years in the instrumental record, with the exception of 1998, have now occurred since 2000. This trend continues a long-term warming of the planet, according to an analysis of surface temperature measurements by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) in New York. In an independent analysis of the raw data…NOAA scientists also found 2014 to be the warmest on record.” By way of adding background, NASA said, “Since 1880, Earth’s average surface temperature has warmed by about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 degrees Celsius), a trend that is largely driven by the increase in carbon dioxide and other human emissions into the planet’s atmosphere. The majority of that warming has occurred in the past three decades.” [Jim Inhofe via Washington Post, 2/26/15. NASA, 1/15/15]

Catch this: The “very, very cold” weather in Washington is actually consistent with scientific explanations of global climate change and rising average temperatures. Science suggests that cold weather-associated “polar vortex” phenomena – like what just hit the East Coast – may actually be the product of global climate change and rising average temperatures. A recent study co-authored by Seong-Joong Kim, a climate scientist at the Korea Polar Research Institute, suggests that unusually extreme winter weather associated with the so-called polar vortex is related to global climate change and increasing average temperatures. Meteorologist Eric Holthaus summarizes the findings: “the intense cold air outbreaks in recent winters across Europe, Asia, and North America are, in his [Kim’s] words, ‘a side effect of global warming’…Abnormally warm waters in the tropical Atlantic travel up the Gulf Stream toward Europe in the late summer and fall months, motivating exceptional sea ice melt in the Barents-Kara seas north of Scandinavia. When that area is ice free, the open water releases heat into the atmosphere during November and December, and sets up an anomalous blocking pattern over the Ural Mountains. By midwinter, as more and more heat is being transferred to the Arctic, the troposphere and stratosphere can link up, destabilizing the polar vortex, weakening the jet stream, and sending waves of cold air southward.” [Eric Holthaus , 9/3/14]

As Sen. Inhofe throws snowballs, new science shows climate change has contributed to massive droughts in America and risks “decades-long mega-droughts” that would destroy the breadbasket. A recent study found that the drought in California is the worst in over 1,200 years. Subsequently, research led by the NASA Goddard Institute explained the connections between global climate change and the likelihood of even worse droughts in the future without reducing carbon emissions. The Guardian summarizes, “Global warming intensifies drought in several ways. It increases evaporation from soil and reservoirs. It increases water demand. It makes precipitation fall more as rain and less as snow, which is problematic for regions like California that rely on snowpack melt to refill reservoirs throughout the year. It also makes the snowpack melt earlier in the year. The record heat has intensified the current California drought by about 36%.”

The scale of future mega-droughts in North America will be debilitating without taking substantial action to reduce carbon emissions. The Guardian continues, “decades-long mega-droughts in North America could be much worse than those experienced during medieval times, which led to the decline of native populations, if we continue on our current business-as-usual path…The mega-droughts are projected to hit the main agricultural regions in the United States – both California and the Midwest ‘breadbasket.’ The chronic water shortages that are anticipated in these regions under the business-as-usual scenario would make farming, as well as ranching in the American southwest, nearly impossible” by the end of the century. [The Guardian, 2/16/15]

As some politicians cling to scientific ignorance, the American public’s opinions of climate change are increasingly taking the issue seriously. According to recent pubic polling, “Two-thirds of respondents (66 percent) said that world leaders are morally obligated to take action to reduce CO2 emissions. And 72 percent said they were ‘personally morally obligated’ to do what they can in their daily lives to reduce emissions,” Reuters reports. This follows trends in broader public opinion polling on the reality of global warming. [Reuters, 2/27/15]

As some conservatives play politics, national security leaders call for action on climate change. The Military Advisory Board of the Center for Naval Analyses, which includes former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and 16 retired military flag officers, warns about the unnecessary political obstacles to addressing climate change: “We are dismayed that discussions of climate change have become so polarizing and have receded from the arena of informed public discourse and debate. Political posturing and budgetary woes cannot be allowed to inhibit discussion and debate over what so many believe to be a salient national security concern for our nation. Each citizen must ask what he or she can do individually to mitigate climate change, and collectively what his or her local, state, and national leaders are doing to ensure that the world is sustained for future generations. Are your communities, businesses, and governments investing in the necessary resilience measures to lower the risks associated with climate change?” [ CNA, 5/14]