Rebalancing: “A Resident Power in Asia”
President Obama, along with Secretaries Clinton and Panetta, has just concluded a diplomatic tour of Southeast Asia, visiting Thailand, Myanmar/Burma, and the East Asia Summit in Cambodia. Making this the first overseas trip since the elections highlights the priority being placed on what Michele Flournoy and Ziad Haider call “the region that will drive economic prosperity and security more than any other in the 21st century.” This trip – what National Security Advisor Tom Donilon has announced as the beginning of “the next phase of our rebalancing effort” – is notable for a forward-looking emphasis on Southeast Asia, which is home to enormous U.S. economic interests; a strong message about the value of reforms in Burma; and a commitment, through the East Asia Summit and other fora, to be “a resident power in Asia,” managing our relationship with China and focusing on security, economic and human concerns that affect U.S. and regional interests.
Putting the spotlight on U.S. interests in Southeast Asia: The Wall Street Journal explains, “While Southeast Asia garnered less attention than China and India in recent years, it is increasingly important for U.S. international economic and geopolitical plans. The economies of Southeast Asia, a region with a total population of more than 600 million, have been expanding at an average rate of more than 5% for most of the past decade. The combined gross domestic product, close to $2 trillion, makes it a bigger market than India.” [WS Journal, 11/13/12]
Navigating Transition and Reform in Burma:
Moving reform ahead: The first-ever visit by a sitting president to Myanmar/Burma showed strong support for the country’s significant but still tenuous political reforms. The Washington Post editorial board put these efforts in context, “Burma, for decades one of the world’s most repressive dictatorships, has taken encouraging steps toward political reform. But power remains in the hands of its generals and former generals, and it won’t be a democracy until at least 2015, when parliamentary elections are scheduled…Mr. Obama struck a balance between acknowledging the progress made so far and encouraging the further steps that are essential. His goal, he said after meeting democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, is to ‘sustain the momentum’ toward democratization. In a speech at Yangon University, Mr. Obama said that ‘this remarkable journey has just begun, and has much further to go.’”[Washington Post, 11/19/12]
Easing sanctions, improving nuclear safeguards, pledging vigilance: The New York Times reports that, “[National Security Advisor] Donilon said the trip would help ‘lock in this [reform] path forward’ but acknowledged risks. “We’re not naïve about this,” he said. ‘We absolutely are aware of the dangers of backsliding. And if that takes place, we’ll respond accordingly. But this really is a moment that we didn’t want to miss.’” In addition to Burmese progress on political reform, and responding to the recent lifting of sanctions by the United States, Burma agreed to adopt an IAEA protocol that will toughen inspection of its nuclear trade, the subject of some concern vis-à-vis North Korea. [NY Times, 11/17/12]
An example for Pyongyang? The Washington Post’s Max Fisher notes that Obama’s remarks in Yangon included an explicit challenge to North Korea: “To the leadership of North Korea, I have offered a choice: let go of your nuclear weapons and choose the path of peace and progress. If you do, you will find an extended hand from the United States of America.” [Obama via The Washington Post, 11/19/12.]
As a “resident power in Asia,” the U.S. must manage relations with China, territorial disputes: As U.S. and Chinese leaders met for the first time since U.S. and Chinese leadership changes, CAP’s Nina Hachigian writes: “The vision the two countries could adopt is close at hand: The established superpower and the fast-rising power, along with other nations, embedded in a web of common rules, norms and institutions that channel their competition and bound their rivalry.”
The East Asia Summit in Cambodia highlighted part of the challenges facing this vision, as progress again this year was stalled by the region’s maritime and territorial disputes. The New York Times reports, “China, with its ally Cambodia, on Monday once again stalled plans by Southeast Asian nations to develop a system for resolving disputes in the South China Sea, the strategic and energy-rich waterway where China is at odds with various countries regarding competing territorial claims… It was the second time in four months that China appears to have influenced Cambodia, a beneficiary of Chinese development and military aid, to put forward its case. In July, the association failed to issue a communiqué at the end of its conference of foreign ministers after Cambodia refused to allow any mention of the South China Sea.” [Nina Hachigian, 11/19/12. NY Times, 11/19/12]
What We’re Reading
A ceasefire in Gaza appears to be on the horizon, as the UN chief and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton headed to the region with a message that escalation of the conflict was in nobody’s interest.
The European Union offered crucial legitimacy to the new Syrian political opposition as it seeks more international aid in the fight against the government of Bashar al Assad.
A man apparently suffering from mental health problems stabbed a security guard at the U.S. embassy in Tel Aviv and was apprehended
Jihadist social media postings helped lead to the arrest and charging of four Los Angeles area men, who were allegedly on their way to Afghanistan to train with the Taliban and join al Qaeda.
U.S. President Barack Obama met with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, the first top-level meeting between the two countries since the presidential election and a power transition in China.
France ended its combat operations in Afghanistan, pulling hundreds of troops from a base in a volatile region northeast of Kabul and fulfilling promises to end its combat role on a faster track than other NATO allies.
Polish officials said they had arrested a radical nationalist who planned to detonate a vehicle loaded with four metric tons of explosives outside parliament.
Argentine President Cristina Fernandez is facing a nationwide strike, led by union bosses who once were her most steadfast supporters.
Rebels in the Democratic Republic of the Congo took control of the city of Goma, including its airport and the border with Rwanda, after days of clashes, a Congolese reporter on the ground said.
Commentary of the Day
James Traub discusses friction between the State Department and the White House over the transparency of the drone program.
Max Fisher explains the Israeli-Gaza relationship, and what to expect for the future.
David Rohde argues that the lesson from Benghazi is the State Department cannot be underfunded.
Walter Pincus gives his take on the upcoming military budget cuts.
