8/21/08

In his last days commanding U.S. forces in Iraq, General Petraeus issued words of caution – the security gains that had been achieved were “tenuous.” The increase in U.S. forces played an important role in creating the decrease in violence, but during this time almost no progress has been made on political reconciliation. As the surge began, President Bush argued that it would create breathing space for political reconciliation among Iraq’s warring groups. In fact, Iraq’s political challenges are just as deep as they were eighteen months ago. There has been little progress on the major issues, such as the national oil law, the status of the divided city of Kirkuk, and provincial elections. But the most explosive issue by far is the challenge of integrating the Sunni “Sons of Iraq.” As violence exploded during the first nine months of the surge, Gen. Petraeus tried a new approach – talking with and buying off Sunni nationalist insurgents. This led to reductions in violence, but it has also created an incredible political challenge. The Shia-dominated Iraqi national security forces have little interest in integrating the tens of thousands of Sunni forces. Resolving these challenges is largely up to the Iraqis. The task now for the US is to responsibly redeploy our forces and press the Iraqis to make the hard compromises required for lasting peace and stability.

On eve of Petraeus’ departure from Iraq, security gains palpable, but tenuous. General Petraeus’ departure ends an 18-month tenure in which he both oversaw an increase in U.S. forces and engaged former Sunni adversaries, which contributed to the decrease in violence. “Violence has plummeted from its apocalyptic peaks, Iraqi leaders are asserting themselves, and streets that once seemed dead are flourishing with life.” However, as he reflected on conditions in Iraq, Petraeus was keen to emphasize that the gains are “tenuous” and that progress is “not durable yet. It’s not self-sustaining.” [NY Times, 8/20/08]

Despite Iraq’s security gains, there has been scant political progress. Iraqi politicians have been unable to translate security improvements into progress on several key political issues, including the oil law, provincial elections, and the status of the city Kirkuk. An oil law “appears unlikely anytime soon because of political bickering,” and provincial elections have been postponed because the “Iraqi parliament has repeatedly failed to approve the necessary legislation.” Most troubling of all has been Iraqis inability to resolve the status of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, “demonstrating that Iraq’s unsettled ethnic and regional discord could still upend directives emanating from Baghdad and destabilize large swaths of the country — or even set off a civil war.” [Time, 8/16/08. AP, 8/07/08. NY Times, 8/19/08]

Amidst stalled political progress, an ethno-sectarian powder-keg of the U.S.’ own making threatens to burst. “A key pillar of the U.S. strategy to pacify Iraq is in danger of collapsing because the Iraqi government is failing to absorb tens of thousands of former Sunni Muslim insurgents who’d joined U.S.-allied militia groups into the country’s security forces.” These militia groups, part of the awakening movement also known as the “Sons of Iraq,” now threaten to return to violence if their demands for integration are not met. “Mullah Shahab al Aafi, a former emir, or leader, of insurgents in Diyala province who’s the acting commander of 24,000 Sons of Iraq” warned that “If they disband us now, I will tell you that history will show we will go back to zero.” [McClatchy, 8/20/08]

Quick Hits

The New York Times has an editorial today about the rapid disintegration of the situation in Afghanistan, its centrality in the war on terror, and the urgent importance of not letting our mission there fail. Violence continues to surge in Afghanistan today as 30 militants were killed in a battle with U.S. forces and 3 Polish soldiers were killed by a roadside bomb.

Senator John McCain agreed with the statement that “If we don't reenact the draft I don't think we will have anyone to chase Bin Laden to the gates of hell.”

A suicide attack by the Taliban killed at least 52 at a Pakistani arms plant.

The Russia-Georgia conflict has revealed confusion among Western governments over who’s actually in charge: President Medvedev or Prime Minister Putin? Russia says its forces will leave Georgia by Friday as it continues to block the strategic Georigan port of Poti; meanwhile, pro-Russian rebels in South Ossetia and Abkhazia hold rallies for autonomy from Georgia as Georgian/Ossetian ethnic strife continues.

Poland swung away from a flirtation with the East and back to the arms of the West in the wake of the Russia-Georgia crisis.

Terrorist propaganda has been effectively decreased in Iraq as Al Qaeda and Taliban websites have shifted their emphasis to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The Philippine government has backed out of a deal with Muslim separatists in the south of the country following recent intense fighting. The deal would have brought peace to the region by expanding the existing Muslim autonomous zone.

Increased oversight has revealed that a surprisingly small number of individual and corporate speculators control the oil market, as commodity trading has become more popular during the credit crunch.

The Washington Post has a piece on how increasing numbers of Pakistani women are becoming more aware of their rights in the face of stark inequality.

Foreign activists have been detained and two AP photographers were beaten in continuing Chinese efforts to quash protests at the Olympic Games.