National Security Network

The President's Foreign Policy Legacy: Democracy or Disaster?

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Report 29 January 2008

Terrorism Terrorism Afghanistan Democracy iraq national security Pakistan terrorism

So it is the policy of the United States to seek and support the growth of democratic movements and institutions in every nation and culture, with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.President Bush Second Inaugural Address

In the last seven years, we have witnessed stirring moments in the history of liberty.President Bush 2008 State of the Union

Last night President Bush stood before the nation and again claimed that his policies are spreading freedom and security around the world. Three years after first laying out this claim in his second inaugural address, the United States urgently needs a change of course, back toward the best of our democratic principles and away from disaster.

President Bush and his allies cavalierly took on the grand project of spreading democracy– spending U.S. lives and treasure freely while forgetting the core principles that underlie our democracy and have let us inspire others around the world for two centuries.

The legacy Americans are asking for is one that looks ahead with wisdom and foresight to bring an end to the war in Iraq: implement policies that will successfully combat terror and extremist violence while promoting, not devaluing, core American values such as democracy and human rights; and rebuild America’s global image by bringing hope to others in deeds, not just words.

BRINGING AN END TO THE WAR IN IRAQ

Then: "The Iraqi people are meeting hardships and challenges, like every nation that has set out on the path of democracy. Yet their future promises lives of dignity and freedom and that is a world away from the squalid, vicious tyranny they have known. Across Iraq, life is being improved by liberty. Across the Middle East, people are safer because an unstable aggressor has been removed from power." – President Bush, 9/23/03

Now: The invasion of Iraq has been a catastrophe for the United States, the Iraqi people and the broader Middle East. Almost five years since the invasion of Iraq, the United States finds itself policing a set of unsustainable cease fires in a country that Foreign Policy classified as the second most unstable in the world. A recent Freedom House report concluded that Iraq was “Not Free” and gave it a score of 6 on 1-7 scale of freedom (with 1 the most free). Two million Iraqis have fled the country. Two million are internally displaced. Approximately 150,000 were killed in the first three years of the war alone. According to Oxfam, 70% of Iraqis do not have access to adequate water supplies and 43% endure “absolute poverty.” 3,900 American troops have been killed and 30,000 have been wounded. [Foreign Policy, July/August, 2007. Oxfam, 7/07. BBC, 1/10/08.]

The Right Legacy: The best legacy for the bad situation the United States finds itself in involves a new strategy in which the United States takes responsibility for its actions – and asks Iraqis to do the same. The President should redeploy U.S. troops from Iraq in order to transfer power and responsibility to Iraqis, work with the Iraqis to come up with a political agreement, and engage all of Iraq’s neighbors in diplomacy to help bring about an end to the war.

BUILDING DEMOCRACY IN PLACE OF TERROR

AFGHANISTAN

Then: “With the steady leadership of President Karzai, the people of Afghanistan are building a modern and peaceful government. Next month, 500 delegates will convene a national assembly in Kabul to approve a new Afghan constitution. The proposed draft would establish a bicameral parliament, set national elections next year, and recognize Afghanistan's Muslim identity, while protecting the rights of all citizens. Afghanistan faces continuing economic and security challenges -- it will face those challenges as a free and stable democracy.” – President Bush, 11/06/03

Now: Afghanistan is going backwards. After toppling the Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan in the fall of 2001 and making considerable progress in setting up an Afghan government led by Hamid Karzai, the Bush administration chose to walk away from the front line and focus on Iraq instead. The Taliban has returned to lead a growing insurgency against the Afghan government and U.S. and NATO forces, bringing terrorist violence to Afghan cities and making 2007 the deadliest year on record for U.S. forces in Afghanistan. Al Qaeda and its affiliates have reconstituted in the mountainous safe havens along the Afghan-Pakistan border and pose a grave threat to the United States and its allies. Afghanistan remains among the poorest countries on earth and now supplies 92 percent of the world’s illicit opium.

The Right Legacy: The United States needs to finish the job we started in Afghanistan: strengthening a government that will be successful in fighting the Taliban and Al Qaeda and earning the trust of the Afghan people. To do that, we need a new military focus on Afghanistan, and we need to pay greater attention to its neighbor Pakistan, where the Taliban and Al Qaeda went to regroup and where Osama Bin Laden may well be hiding.

PAKISTAN

Then: "We will encourage reform in other governments by making clear that success in our relations will require the decent treatment of their own people. America's belief in human dignity will guide our policies. Yet rights must be more than the grudging concessions of dictators; they are secured by free dissent and the participation of the governed. In the long run, there is no justice without freedom, and there can be no human rights without human liberty." – President Bush Second Inaugural Address

Now: Pakistan is moving further into crisis and away from democracy. Rather than engage with Pakistan people and institutions, the Administration pursued a Musharraf policy. It stood by President Musharraf despite his sacking the independent judiciary, imprisoning the opposition, stifling the media and changing the constitution for his own personal benefit. The assassination of former President Benazir Bhutto pushed this state, equipped with a nuclear arsenal, further away from democracy and rule of law and into political chaos.

The Right Legacy: The United States needs a policy that recognizes that Pakistan is both, as the Economist called it, “the most dangerous place on earth” and central to the fight against Al Qaeda. A strategy that honors our democratic principles and furthers the fight on terror would refocus on Pakistan’s institutions and people, instead of the United States supporting one man against 160 million people. The Bush Administration should call for the reinstitution of a strong and independent judiciary and a free media, rebalance our aid away from the military and towards human development, and insist on accountability from the Pakistani government.

LEBANON

Then: All the world is witnessing your great movement of conscience. Lebanon's great future belongs in your hands, and by your courage, Lebanon's future will be in your hands," Bush said. "The American people are on your side. ... Freedom will prevail in Lebanon." – President Bush, 3/08/05

Now: The Lebanese government is now in total stalemate, with the danger of sectarian violence and civil war at its highest since the civil war of the 1970s and 80s. The Bush Administration touted Lebanon as a major success story in 2005 but then let its attention drift. Since late September the Lebanese government has been unable to elect a new President and elections have been postponed 13 times. Hezbollah has boycotted the parliament, which has been unable to attain a quorum thus creating total gridlock. The longer the crisis goes on, the more likely it is to boil over into violence. [AFP, 1/20/08]

The Right Legacy: Instead of flowery rhetoric and no results, the United States should be playing an active diplomatic role in Lebanon. This means, in the short-term, supporting a compromise candidate for President. In the long run we should be working in concert with our Arab and European allies, especially the French, to facilitate dialogue and agreement among the various parties.

EGYPT

Then: "We will persistently clarify the choice before every ruler and every nation: The moral choice between oppression, which is always wrong, and freedom, which is eternally right. America will not pretend that jailed dissidents prefer their chains, or that women welcome humiliation and servitude, or that any human being aspires to live at the mercy of bullies." – President Bush Second Inaugural Address

Now: The President has praised Egypt, even as it has gone backwards. On his recent trip to the Middle East, President Bush praised Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak for his regime’s supposed reforms. “You have taken steps toward economic openness . . . and political reforms,” Bush stated. “Bush made no public mention of Ayman Nour, the politician jailed by Egypt after he challenged Mubarak in the 2005 election... Bush also made no public mention of human rights in Egypt, a country where complaints of police torture remain widespread. In parliamentary elections this summer, riot police openly blocked voters in some opposition areas from entering polling stations. Authorities jailed Egyptian newspaper editors and bloggers for criticizing Mubarak, 79, for speculating on the state of his health. [Washington Post, 1/17/08]

The Right Legacy: The United States should, through its actions and statements, be supporting Egyptian civil society writ large and pressuring President Mubarak to take steps towards reform. Helping Egypt towards a more democratic system is a dicey and difficult proposition. Because of the United States’ unpopularity in the Middle East, it should not overtly support specific players, which may only end up undermining them in their local communities. But at the very least, the President of the United States should not be praising a dictator with a long record of human rights abuses as an agent of reform.

WEST BANK AND GAZA

Then: "The way forward must continue to include democratic elections. The upcoming elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council offer an opportunity to open the door to the next generation of Palestinian leaders. They'll be responsible for building a peaceful and hopeful future for their country. – President Bush, 10/20/05

Now: Seven years of neglect have done significant damage to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and the prospects for stable democracy in the West Bank and Gaza. The Bush Administration has belatedly engaged in the peace process and that is a good thing. But years of neglect and ill-thought-out policies failed to develop Palestinian institutions, allowed Hamas to come to power in the Gaza Strip, and let the situation on the ground deteriorate.

The Right Legacy: Developing a realistic and effective strategy for resolving this conflict must be a top American priority. The President should continue to encourage Israelis and Palestinians to make the difficult compromises on core issues necessary to achieve the goal of two states living side by side in peace and security. That said, the political weakness of the key players -- Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayad, and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert -- will make it very difficult to make significant progress on key final status issues. Therefore, the United States should act to strengthen these actors and improve conditions on the ground by improving security for Israelis and economic assistance to the Palestinians, demanding political and economic support from the Arab states for Abbas, and holding firm on isolation of Hamas until they recognize Israel, renounce violence, and abide by past agreements.