National Security Network

NSN Special Update: Leadership, Libya, Liberation

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Report 22 August 2011

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Heather Hurlburt, NSN Executive Director, issued the following statement in response to the recent developments in Libya: 

"These events mark a turning point for the people of Libya, who have rekindled the hopes of the Arab Spring, to set themselves a new course after 40 years of tyranny; and for Americans, who can judge the effectiveness of leadership that is commensurate with our interests and values while encouraging others to stand in front and bear costly burdens."

After more than 40 years, Muammar Qaddafi's corrupt and tyrannical rule appears to be drawing to a close. That victory belongs to the Libyan people who won it with their own lives and the support of the international community. Now, as across the Arab world, comes the hard part: building a stable, democratic and peaceful state. The rebel government, the Transitional National Council, has paid lip-service to those goals. Now they're faced with the hard task of implementing them; the international community should lend support to that effort, but as with the military phase of the mission, Libyans must ultimately win the peace. At home,  the Libyan effort points the way toward an American leadership that makes commitments commensurate with our interests,  shares the burdens with others, and promotes our values while taking into account  financial constraints.

The people of Libya free from a dictator, open hope for a new chapter in the Arab Spring. Middle East expert Juan Cole writes that, "The Libyan Revolution has largely succeeded, and this is a moment of celebration, not only for Libyans but for a youth generation in the Arab world that has pursued a political opening across the region. The secret of the uprising's final days of success lay in a popular revolt in the working-class districts of the capital, which did most of the hard work of throwing off the rule of secret police and military cliques."  Steve Negus writes from Bengazi, describing how Libyans view the role of the UN, NATO and its Arab partners:  "The combination of foreign airstrikes - which rebels realize saved them, albeit without foreign ground forces, which would inevitably antagonize people - gives the West leverage without creating a backlash." From Beirut, Rami Khouri told Reuters that the developments would encourage protestors in Syria and elsewhere:  "It is an important development because it shows there are different ways in which Arab regimes will collapse. It just shows once you get a momentum developing and the right combination -- a popular will for change and regional and international support -- no regime can withstand that." [Juan Cole, 8/22/11Steve Negus, 8/22/11.  Reuters , 8/22/11]

Now comes the hard part, with Libyans in the lead. Libyans face the challenges of avoiding disorder and revenge killings and organizing for economic and political recovery.  The international community, with the UN, EU and Libya's Arab neighbors in the lead, must organize to support them.  Daniel Serwer, author of a Council on Foreign Relations report titled, "Post-Qaddafi Instability in Libya" wrote yesterday: "The Transitional National Council (TNC) likely now has a big mess on its hands.  They need to get things under control as quickly as possible, appealing for foreign help if need be.  Widespread looting and disorder would be a bad way to start the new regime, likely opening the door to someone who claims to be able to restore public order.  Continuing shortages of food, water and electricity could also undermine the legitimacy and viability of the new regime... The TNC needs to be particularly alert to revenge killing of Qaddafi loyalists, and settling of scores among the rebels.  In immediate post-war situations, the urge to exact quick justice is enormous... But allowing vigilantes to even the score will only lead to a spiral of violence that is hard to stop and inimical to democratic evolution."

The Council on Foreign Relations report sets out a strategy for international assistance in which the UN provides parameters, the EU leads with security and humanitarian assistance, and the US plays an important, but supporting role: "It is appropriate... for the European Union (EU) to lead an international post-Qaddafi stabilization effort, preferably under a UN umbrella, to facilitate participation by members of the Arab League and the African Union (AU)... The United States, whose interests in Libya are more limited, should aim-through support to Libyan, European, and Arab efforts-to keep post-Qaddafi Libya a single sovereign country within its well-recognized borders, restore its oil production to prewar levels, prevent it from harboring or supporting international terrorists, and ensure stable and more democratic governance there." [Daniel Serwer, 8/22/11. Daniel Serwer, CFR, 8/11]

U.S. provided unique capabilities and support to Libyans and our NATO allies - at a cost commensurate with U.S. interests and competing commitments. Blake Hounshell at Foreign Policy magazine writes, "Many have criticized U.S. President Barack Obama's strategy of ‘leading from behind' in Libya, but that strategy now seems utterly vindicated. It was Libyans themselves, with significant help from NATO, Qatar, and the UAE, who liberated their country from Qaddafi's grip -- a fact about which they are fiercely and justly proud. It required little from American taxpayers: As of Thursday, NATO operations had cost the United States around $1.1 billion, according to CFR's Micah Zenko -- a rounding error."

Mark Thompson at TIME magazine expands: "So the U.S. was able to spearhead the imminent collapse of Muammar Gaddfi's regime in Libya on the cheap. We launched full-fledged invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq against murderous tyrants, but elected not to do the same in Libya. Is this a new template for U.S. wars, or just an acknowledgement of a war-weary nation? It's a little of both, actually. President Obama, who was elected, in part, to help wind down those two post-9/11 wars, had no desire to begin a third. But he was willing to help NATO and the Arab League by providing a precision-guided attacks in the Libyan war's first two weeks, before taking a decidedly back seat for the next five months. The U.S. left the bulk of the bombing to British and French forces (although a tweezerful of armed, unmanned U.S. Predators have been hitting key targets inside Libya for months now)." This approach supports our allies but also urges them to do their part. Mark Thompson again: "NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen thinks the Libyan operation could act as a blueprint for a less U.S.-centric way of waging war. ‘We have been used to the fact that the U.S. should be in the very front line, and absolutely be in the lead, to carry out NATO operations,' he told TIME in May. ‘How could it be that the U.S. should always take the lion's share of the burden -- couldn't European allies step up to the plate?'" [Blake Hounshell, 8/22/11. Mark Thompson via TIME, 8/22/11]

 

What We're Reading

The head of the Libyan rebel council confirms that two of Moammar Gaddafi's sons are under arrest and that he hopes the Libyan leader will also be captured alive so that he can be put on trial.

Iran has cut back or even stopped its funding of Hamas after the Islamist movement, which rules the Gaza Strip, failed to show public support for Syrian President Bashar al Assad, diplomats said.

Israel and Hamas say they have agreed to a ceasefire after five days of violence.

Two decapitated bodies and scalped heads were dumped outside a Sam's Club store in Acapulco while three headless corpses were found nearby on the resort city's main tourist strip, authorities in Mexico.

After months of controversy over the last year's tainted elections, an independent Afghan commission announced that nine members of Parliament will lose their seats and will be replaced by new members.

President Bashar al Assad of Syria dismissed American and European calls for him to step down as "meaningless", and he declared that Syria's ailing economy could withstand escalating international sanctions.

Vice President Joe Biden said in China that despite the economic problems and turmoil in the financial markets, the United States remains "the single best bet in the world in terms of where to invest."

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said the government was open to a debate on the Lokpal Bill but this alone cannot solve the problem of corruption and there is a need to revamp existing government procedures. 

Tribal clashes in a region of newly independent South Sudan have killed at least 58 people in the past week, the United Nations says, raising fears of ethnic instability in the deeply impoverished country.

New York prosecutors are expected to drop at least some of the sexual assault charges against former International Monetary Fund director Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

 

Commentary of the Day

William Deresiewicz warns against a sentimental reverence for the military that supplants Americans' civic responsibility to ask questions and demand accountability.

John Podesta, Brian Katulis, and Caroline Wadhams lay out a plan for how the U.S. can better prepare for transition in Afghanistan.

Phillip Zelikow argues that the fall of Gaddafi will renew the Arab Spring and promote the democratic process in many countries.

Robert Burns says that one of the key lessons of the past decade of war has been that it takes more than military muscle to win the peace; it takes the State Department, with its small army of diplomats and development specialists, and other government agencies working in partnership with the Pentagon.