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NSN Middle East Update
Bruce Jentleson, writing in The Washington Quarterly, sums up the need for clear-eyed analysis as the ever-more complex "Arab Spring" confronts a hot summer: "Blithe generalizations, binary thinking, and fear-mongering distort both the political dialogue and the analytic capacity needed to pursue policies differentiated according to the particular political dynamics of the various countries of the Arab world and the strategic challenges facing the United States."
Libya
Western diplomats say Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi is sending fresh signals through emissaries that he is ready to discuss stepping down, although U.S. officials remain skeptical. Human Rights Watch reports that rebels in the mountains in Libya's west have looted and damaged four towns seized since last month, part of a series of abuses and apparent reprisals against suspected Qaddafi loyalists. Meanwhile, Qaddafi's agriculture minister warned that Libya could face a shortage of food because a lack of fuel has prevented it from bringing in most of this season's grain harvest.
News
Gaddafi Forces Are Struggling, U.S. Intelligence Reports Say
Washington Post, 7/12/11
U.S. Sees "Contradictory" Messages on Gaddafi Future
Reuters, 7/12/11
Libyan Rebels Accused of Pillage and Beatings
New York Times, 7/12/11
Qaddafi's Government Warns of Food Shortages
Reuters, 7/12/11
Commentary and Analysis
Controlling the Message in Libya
Micah Zenko, CFR.org, 7/11/11
The Economist, 6/30/11
Egypt
Egypt's military leaders warned protestors amassing in Tahrir Square against disrupting public life or "hijacking" their authority. The statement was the first since thousands returned to the square last Friday. The Tahrir protestors' main aims are the interim cabinet's dismissal, the purging of Mubarak loyalists from public office and immediate trials for police officers and officials. The protests have already been met with concessions and pledges of reform from officials. In the past week, Prime Minister Essam Sharaf has promised a cabinet reshuffle and a Friday deadline for the purging of the Interior Ministry. On Tuesday, the deputy prime minister, Yehie el-Gamal, resigned, and today the government announced the dismissal of about 600 police officers.
News
In Egypt, Post-Revolution Harmony Turns Into Acrimony
Los Angeles Times, 7/13/11
Egypt's Military Leaders Call for Stand Against Protests
Washington Post, 7/12/11
Egypt Protesters Vow to Stay in Tahrir
AFP, 7/13/11
Commentary and Analysis
The Path to Democracy in Egypt
Daniel Brumberg, The Atlantic, 7/13/11
Still Pushing the Boundaries: Egypt's New, Free Press
Thanassis Cambanis, The Atlantic, 7/8/11
Why the Past is Crucial to Egypt's Future
Michael Hanna, Cairo Review of Global Affairs, 7/14/11
Yemen
Last week, President Ali Abdullah Saleh appeared on television from Saudi Arabia for the first time since he was injured in an assault on the presidential compound's mosque a month ago. This week, President Obama sent John Brennan, the White House counterterrorism chief and former CIA station chief in Saudi Arabia, with a message for Saleh that the only way to continue the flow of American aid is to sign an accord brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council, ending his 33 years in office but granting him immunity. Meanwhile, in Yemen, protests continue, the economy continues to tailspin and factional fighting along the Saudi border has the oil giant worried.
News
Envoy Meets With Leader of Yemen on Accord
New York Times, 7/10/11
Factional Fighting Brings Yemen Unrest Nearer Saudi
Reuters, 7/12/11
Commentary and Analysis
Christopher Boucek, National Interest, 7/6/11
Jeb Boone, Foreign Policy, 7/11/11
Ellen Knickmeyer, Foreign Policy, 7/5/11
Syria
Last week, U.S. Ambassador Robert Ford visited the city of Hama, the hub of the current protests in Syria and the site of a brutal crackdown by Bashar al Assad's father in 1982. In response, mobs attacked and vandalized the U.S. and French embassies in Damascus, a move which the United Nations Security Council strongly condemned yesterday. These events largely overshadowed what Syrian officials called a "national dialogue" on reform, though several groups boycotted the talks and said that the final statement failed to meet their demands.
News
UN Condemns Attack on US Embassy in Syria
AP, 7/12/11
Arab League Tells US to Stop Interfering in Syria
AP, 7/13/11
Washington Post, 7/12/11
Syrian Opposition Leaders Boycott a Government Dialogue Opening
New York Times, 7/10/11
Commentary and Analysis
Low-key U.S. Diplomat Transforms Syria Policy
Washington Post, 7/12/11
A Measured U.S. Response in Syria
Doyle McManus, Los Angeles Times, 7/10/11
Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (VII): The Syrian Regime's Slow-Motion Suicide
International Crisis Group, 7/13/11
Reform in North Africa Commentary and Analysis
All Hail the (Democratic) King
Ahmed Charai and Joseph Braude, New York Times, 7/11/11
Marc Lynch, Foreign Policy, 6/29/11
Regional Commentary and Analysis
Bruce Jentleson, Washington Quarterly, 7/11
Stop Searching for an Obama Doctrine
Fareed Zakaria, Washington Post, 7/6/11
Why Middle East Studies Missed the Arab Spring
F. Gregory Gause III, Foreign Affairs, 7/11