By Paul D. Eaton

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’ recent blunt remarks regarding NATO members’ defense spending were the strongest I recall hearing and occur at precisely the moment when the United States military leadership has expressed concerns about the US economy as the basis of our military power and the future of US power projection.

The saying that nations have interests, not friends, becomes more true during periods of high threat, military, economic or diplomatic. When a nation’s territory, autonomy or prosperity is threatened by a combination of the three basic components of national power, the interests calculus goes under close scrutiny. This calculus works hard to discern between those interests that are vital and those that play a lesser role. Vital interests will typically get a whole of nation response, while mere interests bring in the risk/cost/benefit analysis.

Europe and NATO are about at the close scrutiny point on interests. And so is the United States.

The only wolf at the NATO door is the economy of the members of the alliance and the members of the European Union as they affect NATO members.

The United States is currently involved in two expensive conflicts that are hard to place in the vital national interest category, as evidenced by the current US administration’s willingness to tinker with troop levels in Afghanistan and in Iraq. Were those conflicts in the vital category, the President would restrict his involvement to the grand design category (e.g., the decision to invade North Africa first, Europe later made by President Roosevelt). Rather today, the decision to be made seems to center on how many thousands of troops to withdraw. Afghanistan is therefore not a vital national interest to the United States and is subject to the rules of risk/cost/benefit analysis.

This logic drives NATO analysis as well, both in their contribution to our effort in Afghanistan and to desired excess military capacity.

Absent a real threat, and today, Europe does not have a real threat against national sovereignty aside from energy pressure Russia may apply, notably through Germany, a nation will seek to determine what capability it wants to maintain. A capabilities based analysis will reveal the result of the nation’s cost/benefit analysis and the level of risk it is willing to tolerate. All the while conscious of the value of any alliances that bear on the problem.

For the original text, click here.