4/27/11 

In the aftermath of last year's Cheonan attack and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, relations with North Korea have continued to languish.  Despite economic hardships, food shortages and an internal power shift, North Korea continues to defy international norms and expand its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. A clear-eyed assessment of both the situation and of North Korea's security concerns is essential to crafting any U.S. policy going forward - and this requires dialogue. Former President Jimmy Carter's unofficial trip to North Korea is a starting point, but real talks remain the best option. As Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), points out, "We don't know what renewed diplomatic engagement can accomplish. We do know this: Our silence invites a dangerous situation to get worse."

Regime survival remains North Korea's primary concern. Professors John Delury and Chung-in Moon recently explained, "The [Democratic People's Republic of Korea's] objectives are regime survival, national security, and economic strength, in that order. Nuclear deterrence, military confrontation, and diplomatic negotiation are means to those ends. In the absence of a negotiated process that guarantees the North's security, normalizes its diplomatic status, and provides it with energy and economic assistance, nuclear development and military conflict are bound to continue." [Delury and Moon via 38 North, 4/7/11]

As the succession process unfolds and Kim Jong-Un prepares to take over, it appears regime is relatively stable.  While stability remains a concern, Delury and Moon write that, "Despite economic hardship, food shortages, and a welter of sanctions, the Kim Jong Il regime seems stable, and the succession process is, by all appearances, taking place smoothly. Broad-based elite cohesion, including the military, has maintained regime resilience despite a hostile international environment. Formidable mechanisms of state surveillance and control, combined with the absence of civil society organs, make the prospects of organized popular revolt slim. Last but not least, China is actively engaged on diplomatic and economic levels in supporting North Korea's survival, stability, and development." [Delury and Moon via 38 North, 4/7/11]

In concert with our South Korean and Japanese allies, U.S. remains focused on finding the right policy. The Council on Foreign Relations' National Intelligence Fellow Sue Mi Terry asserts that, "Unfortunately, there is no good policy option when it comes to North Korea." Terry concludes, "The United States should continue to both penalize and attempt to deter Pyongyang's aggressive behavior by what it is currently doing, which is intensifying sanctions, counterproliferation, and conducting joint military exercises with South Korea. Additionally, the United States should try to seek other ways to deter North Koreans, such as working with South Korea and Japan on some sort of enhanced trilateral cooperation. The United States also needs to prepare for further provocations from the North Koreans." Dialogue remains an essential component. While some hesitate to resume talks with the North for fear of rewarding bad behavior, it is impossible to find a solution without doing so. Charles "Jack" Pritchard, formerly an envoy to Pyongyang for President George W. Bush, now heading the Korea Economic Institute in Washington explains, "Nothing can be solved or resolved, nor can tensions be reduced, without dialogue with the North Koreans." [CFR, 4/26/11. Jack Pritchard via Reuters, 1/4/11]

Breaking the cycle of provocations will not be easy. Robert Carlin recently testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, explaining that, "The word has gone out that we and our allies aim to force the North to change its ‘unacceptable behavior.'  We will not negotiate until the North creates the ‘conditions' for negotiations.  If that is our goal, the climb is steeper than we imagine.  Years ago, the North Koreans were taught, and the lesson has since been endlessly reinforced, that the world rarely rewards them for good behavior, because whatever they do is never deemed good enough.  If they ‘behave,' many North Koreans have become convinced that they will become part of the great power woodwork, something to be ignored and scuffed by the furniture on the way out." Delury and Moon similarly note that, "Washington and Seoul are treating the resumption of talks as a reward for North Korea, which underscores a fundamental misunderstanding of North Korea's intentions. For Pyongyang, dialogue and negotiation are a means to an end, not ends-in-themselves. What Kim Jong Il wants from the talks is security assurances, primarily through the termination of hostile relations and diplomatic normalization with the United States. Providing for the security of his regime would in turn create conditions conducive to a more successful push at economic development." [Robert Carlin, 3/1/11. Delury and Moon via 38 North, 4/7/11]

While no quick fixes exist, dialogue - official or otherwise - remains key. As longtime North Korean hand Joel Wit notes, "Until official talks resume, figuring out what Pyongyang is thinking must be done through deciphering messages in its state-controlled media or through unofficial contacts, such as former U.S. President Jimmy Carter's upcoming visit to Pyongyang." Laying such groundwork is essential to resuming talks, which offer the best path forward. As Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Sen. John Kerry has concluded, "Let me be clear: We must get beyond the political talking point that engaging North Korea is somehow ‘rewarding bad behavior.' It is not. We will set the time and place and we will negotiate in good faith. Talks will be based on our national security interests and those of our allies. We don't know what renewed diplomatic engagement can accomplish. We do know this: Our silence invites a dangerous situation to get worse." [Joel Wit, 4/20/11. John Kerry, 3/1/11]

What We're Reading

President Obama has begun a major reorganization of his national security team, with Leon Panetta as the new Secretary of Defense and General David Petraeus as CIA director.

U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice said the United States has evidence of active Iranian support for the Syrian government's "abhorrent and deplorable" crackdown on peaceful demonstrators.

Saboteurs blew up a pipeline running through Egypt's north Sinai that supplies gas to Israel and Jordan.

NATO plans to step up attacks on the palaces, headquarters and communications centers that Muammar Qaddafi uses to maintain his grip on power in Libya, according to Obama administration and allied officials.

At least eight NATO troops were killed when a veteran Afghan air force pilot opened fire inside a military compound at North Kabul International Airport, in what the Taliban claimed was the latest deadly attack by an insurgent infiltrator.

A Harvard University academic has been elected prime minister of the Tibetan government-in-exile and will take on the political role previously played by the Dalai Lama.

A court in Belarus sentenced an opposition leader to two years in prison for his part in organizing a rally last December to protest the results of the presidential election.

Guatemalan police have arrested Waldemar Lorenzana Lima, wanted by the U.S. for his alleged links to Mexico's powerful Sinaloa drug cartel.

Authorities in Ecuador closed schools and evacuated residents in areas near a volcano after ashes spewing from its crater fell on homes and farms, state media reported.

Malawi has ordered the UK's high commissioner to leave after he was quoted in a leaked cable as saying the president does not tolerate criticism.

Police in Paris have arrested 60 suspected illegal migrants, most of them Tunisians, as France pushes for tighter border controls.

Commentary of the Day

Micah Zenko writes that the U.S. must be realistic about what outcomes are achievable in Afghanistan.

Asef Bayat argues that while some have said that the revolutions in the Arab world are Islamist revolutions, they are post-Islamist and may pave the way for democracies that respect both religion and citizens' rights.

Douglas MacGregor says cutting defense spending does not mean endangering American security.