4/7/11 

With less than 48 hours until the government could be forced to shut down, lawmakers once again failed to reach an agreement to fund the government for the remainder of the current fiscal year. Yet despite the devastating impact a government shutdown would have on the economy and our national security apparatus, extreme conservatives are openly encouraging a shutdown.  Their refusal to negotiate and find a compromise has bred uncertainty and confusion, which has consequences that extend beyond our shores, impacting our warfighters, diplomats and citizens abroad.

Extreme conservatives, ignoring the consequences, welcome government shutdown. Many conservatives in Congress have been encouraging a shutdown of the government. According to the Washington Post, Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) proclaimed at a Tea Party rally that, "If liberals in the Senate would rather play political games and force a government shutdown, instead of accepting a modest down payment on fiscal discipline and reform, I say, ‘Shut it down!'" Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-MI) argues that his constituents want it, saying, "I just had two families from the district who just popped into my office after doing a tour... They are saying to me, ‘Don't be afraid to shut this down, in pursuit of the right thing.'" Meanwhile, other conservatives have demonstrated that they either do not fully understand the real-world impact of a government shutdown or are misrepresenting what it means.  For example, 2012 GOP presidential hopeful Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) stated, "There is no such thing as an actual government shutdown. We know that Social Security checks will continue to go out, the military will continue to go forward...There are a very large number of government employees that stay on the job. It is a government slowdown."

These are not isolated Members of Congress, as conservatives in the House of Representatives cheer the idea of a shutdown.  The Washington Post reports that, "House Republicans huddled late Monday and, according to a GOP aide, gave the speaker an ovation when he informed them that he was advising the House Administration Committee to begin preparing for a possible shutdown." [Mike Pence via Washington Post, 4/6/11. Bill Huizenga via Washington Post, 4/6/11. Michele Bachmann via Washington Post, 4/6/11. Washington Post, 4/5/11]

There will be real national security consequences resulting from a shutdown.  Josh Rogin of Foreign Policy Magazine's The Cable reports that, "One consequence of a government shutdown - which will occur on April 8 unless Congress passes a new funding bill - is that members of the military will no longer be paid, even though they will continue to work and fight." This can have serious effects on individual soldiers and sailors and their families. Ashwin Madia, Iraq War veteran, and interim chairman of VoteVets.org, said in a statement today that, "For troops who have spouses and kids on the homefront, who live paycheck to paycheck, even one delayed pay day could cause huge problems for them in this economy... Shutting down the government isn't responsible." The impact would extend beyond the Department of Defense and would affect important functions of diplomacy and international business. State Department spokesman Mark Toner conceded yesterday that consular services, including visa appointments at its consulates and embassies across the world, would be affected if the government shuts down: "We're receiving many inquiries... about what may happen to such services as passport and consular services, visa services, in the event of a shutdown. What I can say at this point is that they're likely to be affected, but I can't give much more detail beyond that."

Sebastian Mallaby, the Director of Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, lays out broader strategic concerns about the potential shutdown's impact on our country's reputation and economy: "...where allies around the world look at the United States and say, ‘Gee their political system is so dysfunctional they can't even keep their government open, so what kind of a reliable ally can they be?'" Such political uncertainty could also affect America's reputation with investors.  A lack of confidence in our political system would translate into uncertainty about our reliability as a functioning economy, harming investor confidence and coming at a delicate moment in our recovery from the deepest American recession since the Great Depression. Nicholas Kristof quips in his column today that, "In my travels lately, I've been trying to explain to Libyans, Egyptians, Bahrainis, Chinese and others the benefits of a democratic system. But if Congressional Republicans actually shut down the government this weekend, they will be making a powerful argument for autocracy. Chinese television will be all over the story." [The Cable, 4/5/11. Sebastian Mallaby, 4/6/11. Nicholas Kristof, 4/6/11. Robert Gates via NY Times, 4/6/11]

No way to govern: extreme conservatives' refusal to negotiate in good faith has resulted in ineffective and inefficient short-term spending bills. The current budget showdown is the result of a larger failure. As CNN Money reports, "The fiscal year is 189 days old, and the federal government is still operating without a long-term spending bill. And now, if lawmakers can't cut a deal, the government will shut down. Usually, lawmakers make some effort to pass a real, 365-day budget. Not this year... In the absence of a full-year budget, lawmakers have instead passed six short-term spending bills called ‘continuing resolutions.' Designed to bridge short-term gaps in appropriations, Congress has approved one after another to keep the government running. Average length: 31 days. The budget punt has implications for effective governance." As Deputy Secretary of Defense William J. Lynn testified in March, "The Department still needs an appropriation for FY 2011.  As members of this committee are aware, the Department of Defense has been operating under a Continuing Resolution (CR) for more than five months... In our view, this is not a workable approach."  As Lynn explained, "It's detrimental to readiness, to modernization, and to efficient business practices." [CNN, 4/7/11. William J. Lynn, 3/1/11]

What We're Reading

Bahrain's rulers have tightened their grip on the country, passing emergency laws that give the security forces the right to search houses at will without a warrant and dissolve any organization, including legal political parties, deemed a danger to the state.

Ivorian strongman and disputed presidential incumbent Laurent Gbagbo has refused to capitulate to a coalition of French, UN, and Ivorian opposition forces despite his army being reduced to under a thousand.

A man entered a school in the Brazilian city of Rio de Janeiro and opened fire on children inside, killing 12 and wounding more than 20 at last count.

China's foreign ministry has confirmed that police are investigating artist Ai Weiwei for suspected "economic crimes."

Fresh fighting has flared in Yemen between tribesmen loyal to President Ali Abdullah Saleh and soldiers backing anti-government protesters.

The European Central Bank has said that it encouraged crisis-hit Portuguese authorities to seek financial aid.

Three prominent Kenyans accused over post-election violence in 2007 have appeared at the International Criminal Court in The Hague.

Pakistan's army officials rejected the White House report that claims the country's efforts at defeating the insurgency are inadequate and failing.

Italian authorities will grant "humanitarian" permits to thousands of Tunisian migrants, which will allow them to travel around Europe.

The U.S. and Colombia are moving closer to agreement on a free-trade pact.

Commentary of the Day

Alexander Cooley and Daniel Nexon write that for years, Pentagon officials took comfort in the relative stability of Bahrain, but the protests in the country have raised concerns that it will evict U.S. forces -- part of a broader pattern that is jeopardizing U.S. basing agreements around the world.

Jendayi Frazer says that the current standoff in Ivory Coast has repercussions for the entire continent and that a transfer of power there would send an important message to the rest of Africa.

Dariush Zahedi and Hamed Aleaziz ask if Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has lost his working-class support.